Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gboudx]

So I live 2 blocks west of I-35E in Denton county......

I keep hearing that west of I-35 is the concern. What does this mean for me

I already went to the store just in case. Should I go on the other side of the interstate?

Come over here with me and dhweather. Nothing but cold rain going by the Lucy pic dh posted on previous page.

[ndale]

Models are indeed showing more cold air next week, in fact several shots show up over the next two weeks. GFS has one heck of a teaser for Texas at the end of its 18z run. Will be fun to watch and see if and how this all evolves.

I haven't seen the 18z yet but if it is the same winter storm shown on the 12z for around the 11th that would be 2 runs in a row, interesting. Although we all know much can change in that many days.

[ATCcane]

Models are indeed showing more cold air next week, in fact several shots show up over the next two weeks. GFS has one heck of a teaser for Texas at the end of its 18z run. Will be fun to watch and see if and how this all evolves.

I haven't seen the 18z yet but if it is the same winter storm shown on the 12z for around the 11th that would be 2 runs in a row, interesting. Although we all know much can change in that many days.

In fact it also shows a shot at winter precip on hours 264-300, so several possibilities and predominate cold over the next two weeks.

[iorange55]

Ok, based off the current observations page from the NWS FTW here are the 6pm Temps and Dew Points to draw a better picture of where the freeze line is currently positioned across NTX.

Sherman/Denison T.32 DP.24
Denton T.31 DP.21
FTW Alliance T.31 DP.21
FTW Meacham T.32 DP.22
Cleaburne T.32 DP.22

DFW Airport T.33 DP.21
Kennedale (home) T.33 DP. 23
Burleson T.33 DP.23

So I think it's safe to say that the I-35 corridor is a good North to south place to draw the line currently with it pushing ever so slowly east. By Midnight the freeze line should run from about Paris down to Rockwell to Waxahachie.

And the question after that is will the precip cause them to fall down to the upper 20s or will temps stay in the low 30s?

[gboudx]

Fwiw, 2 weatherbug stations here in Rockwall are reporting 32. My weather station is reporting 31.

[iorange55]

Fwiw, 2 weatherbug stations here in Rockwall are reporting 32. My weather station is reporting 31.

Yeah, not sure how accurate they are, but the weather station by my house in Cedar Hill is at 32. Dew point 25.

[gboudx]

Fwiw, 2 weatherbug stations here in Rockwall are reporting 32. My weather station is reporting 31.

Yeah, not sure how accurate they are, but the weather station by my house in Cedar Hill is at 32. Dew point 25.

I have a laser temp reader too; one of those point and shoot devices. Surfaces like fence boards, gutters and small tree limbs show 32-35.

[CaptinCrunch]

you are correct, it's really up to whether warmer air above wins out over the sub freezing layer at the surface.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Diurnal heating is gone and temperatures are starting to drop in the Austin metro area. Down to 37 in far NW Austin, with a dew point of 28. I still think once the precipitation hits, we'll see some wet bulb cooling. How much is anyone's guess, but I'll be monitoring the temperatures closely. At this point I don't think we're going to get any more of the arctic air, it seems to have pretty much stopped advancing, right about Johnson City, but there's still room to cool tonight.

It's going to be very close for Austin.

[hriverajr]

Here in Del Rio at my house we are stuck at 32.4..... unless we get a bit more advection it may not drop below 32 tonight.

[Shoshana]

Diurnal heating is gone and temperatures are starting to drop in the Austin metro area. Down to 37 in far NW Austin, with a dew point of 28. I still think once the precipitation hits, we'll see some wet bulb cooling. How much is anyone's guess, but I'll be monitoring the temperatures closely. At this point I don't think we're going to get any more of the arctic air, it seems to have pretty much stopped advancing, right about Johnson City, but there's still room to cool tonight.

It's going to be very close for Austin.

Still 39 here in NE Austin. Starting to believe we won't see freezing precipitation east of I35.

38. And hearing fireworks.

[CentralTxAggie]

Been holding steady at 39 last 3 hours here, and dew point went from 31 to 32.

[ndale]

Been holding steady at 39 last 3 hours here, and dew point went from 31 to 32.

I am also at 39 where the temp has been all day and a dewpoint of 30.

[ndale]

ICE ACCUMULATING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ON FM1340 is a report from EWX. That is at Hunt west of Kerrville.

[weatherdude1108]

Been holding steady at 39 last 3 hours here, and dew point went from 31 to 32.

I am also at 39 where the temp has been all day and a dewpoint of 30.

37.8 at 8:06 pm with a dewpoint of 30.2 in my location of South Cedar Park/nw Austin. Dewpoint has risen slightly. Maybe some saturation of the air column is occurring(?).

[SouthernMet]

00z nam has Dallas @ 32 for 6am for the 1st time, with this precip shield on top : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=574.5455

thundersleet/thunder ice anyone?

a better look via the nam 4km @ 6am thunderstorms on top dfw : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=210.9091

"snowfall accumulations" (or sleet) : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=301.8182

1-2" for metro

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

34/25 in Richardson

[TheProfessor]

NWS now has my low at 27, if we get to that it's going to cause some problems. Dew Points are at 21 here and 23 at DFW, were are already at 32 here, I don't think we got above it, which probably means precipitation will freeze on the roads fast.

[Longhornmaniac8]

There sure is a lot of moisture streaming in from Mexico...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-wv.html

[TheProfessor]

If our temps get down to the 20s with that moisture we could see a lot of ice