Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Shoshana]

Not soon enough. Ready for the golf courses to green up and the fish to come out of their winter patterns. Would much rather play golf in the 90's than in the cloudy, windy, cold 40's and 50's.

Heck I got weeds growing fast in my back yard. Did not think I was going to have to cut grass till March

Yeah, I have weather model whiplash. We had to mow today. In January!

[weatherdude1108]

Like sands through the hourglass, so are the Days of our Models.

No kidding.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Too bad we can't organize a field trip to Long Island, NY right about now.

Haha funny enough if I knew I could be back for work Wednesday I'd totally consider it... I wanna go back to NYC anyway... What better time lol

I was honestly checking into cheapie tickets on Spirit or something haha...but then I have a work commitment on Wednesday so ixnay on the ownsay.

Hoping for maybe a Valentine's day storm. A girl can dream...

[Brent]

Well well...



Interesting uh flow:

[wxman57]

That upper low over the Gulf of Alaska is still pumping relatively mild air into western Canada on that 168-hr map. Looks similar to last week's event - snow in the panhandle and west Texas, cold rain elsewhere.

[Portastorm]

That upper low over the Gulf of Alaska is still pumping relatively mild air into western Canada on that 168-hr map. Looks similar to last week's event - snow in the panhandle and west Texas, cold rain elsewhere.

At this point I'd agree with you about next weekend. That Gulf of Alaska low is not our friend.

CMC is the coldest of the medium range lot, Euro in the middle, and GFS the warmest.

Looks like this week in my part of a Texas will be a wxman57 kind of week with sun and above normal temps.

[gboudx]

Jeff's update on NE blizzard. Better plan that trip quickly and plan to be there a few days.

Historic Northeast US Blizzard:

Life threatening….historic…blizzard today-early Wednesday for the NE US.

A powerful upper level trough moving across the OH valley this morning will spawn surface low pressure off the NJ coast today. This surface low will deepen at an incredible rate (30mb in 24hrs surface pressures falling through the 980’s) as it moves ENE toward SE MA. Very heavy snowfall will develop this afternoon in the region from NYC to Boston with hourly snowfall rates nearing 3-4 inches. The storm system slows on Tuesday allowing heavy snow to be prolonged across the region. Storm totals of 2-3 feet appear likely from NYC to eastern Maine with the highest totals upwards of 4 ft near/NW of Boston. Model QPF continues to show a large area of 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid and using standard snow ratios yields 25-30 inches of snow for a large area.

Sustained winds of 45-55mph with gust to 80mph will be likely across the region resulting in extensive blowing and drifting. Snow drifts may approach 10-15 ft in areas of highest accumulation. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the coast from Long Island to north of Boston and this will result in white out conditions and extensive ground blizzard.

Very strong onshore flow will result in moderate to major storm surge flooding especially in and around Boston where ENE winds will funnel into the coast. Damaging waves on top of the storm surge flooding may result in damage to coastal structures. Prolonged period of blowing sea spray and temperatures in the mid 20’s will support crippling ice accumulations on structures near the coast. The offshore islands and Cape Cod will suffer with hours of near hurricane force winds.

Doubt any NE US airport will remain open past late this afternoon and virtually the entire region will be shut down Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with crippling impacts at New York City, Boston, and Harford. May not see normal airport operations returned to the hardest hit areas until late week which will have a significant impact on US aviation travel.

This blizzard will likely rival some of the greatest storm total snowfalls on record for the region.

[orangeblood]

That upper low over the Gulf of Alaska is still pumping relatively mild air into western Canada on that 168-hr map. Looks similar to last week's event - snow in the panhandle and west Texas, cold rain elsewhere.

At this point I'd agree with you about next weekend. That Gulf of Alaska low is not our friend.

CMC is the coldest of the medium range lot, Euro in the middle, and GFS the warmest.

Looks like this week in my part of a Texas will be a wxman57 kind of week with sun and above normal temps.

Actually, the GOA low could be our biggest ally...if it stays a little further west like some models are showing, it could pump the Western NA ridge just enough to bring the polar jet down into the southern plains and phase with the southern stream system. It's definitely still on the table and after looking over last nights model runs, confidence is increasing

[wxman57]

Actually, the GOA low could be our biggest ally...if it stays a little further west like some models are showing, it could pump the Western NA ridge just enough to bring the polar jet down into the southern plains and phase with the southern stream system. It's definitely still on the table and after looking over last nights model runs, confidence is increasing

I'm not seeing anything indicating that will happen in the next 10 days. The low intensifies in another week and moves east, not west. Well above normal temps (850mb) are indicated across western Canada & Alaska until around day 10 when some cold air begins moving into NE Alaska.

[orangeblood]

Actually, the GOA low could be our biggest ally...if it stays a little further west like some models are showing, it could pump the Western NA ridge just enough to bring the polar jet down into the southern plains and phase with the southern stream system. It's definitely still on the table and after looking over last nights model runs, confidence is increasing

I'm not seeing anything indicating that will happen in the next 10 days. The low intensifies in another week and moves east, not west. Well above normal temps (850mb) are indicated across western Canada & Alaska until around day 10 when some cold air begins moving into NE Alaska.

Well I'm guessing you're ignoring the Canadian/European Models then, it keeps the low somewhat stationary/keeping the ridge intact much longer than some of the other models...as you can see from the image below, not a lot of Pacific Air making into North America - flow is directly out of the Arctic Circle. With the warm water anomalies still anchored in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, I wouldn't be against that ridge holding firm.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well I'm guessing you're ignoring the Canadian/European Models then, it keeps the low somewhat stationary/keeping the ridge intact much longer than some of the other models...as you can see from the image below, not a lot of Pacific Air making into North America - flow is directly out of the Arctic Circle

I am hoping that the GoA low stays west as the Canadian and even Euro show though it is hard to complain about a good rain as even the GFS is showing. It would not be much of a shift this far out for the GFS to move the GoA low a bit west giving us a winter storm.

[orangeblood]

Well I'm guessing you're ignoring the Canadian/European Models then, it keeps the low somewhat stationary/keeping the ridge intact much longer than some of the other models...as you can see from the image below, not a lot of Pacific Air making into North America - flow is directly out of the Arctic Circle

I am hoping that the GoA low stays west as the Canadian and even Euro show though it is hard to complain about a good rain as even the GFS is showing. It would not be much of a shift this far out for the GFS to move the GoA low a bit west giving us a winter storm.

Yep, I would guess we'll have a much better picture today on the evolution of the Northern Pacific Pattern considering we're almost within the 5 day skill set of the models.

[weatherdude1108]

Jeff's update on NE blizzard. Better plan that trip quickly and plan to be there a few days.

Historic Northeast US Blizzard:

Life threatening….historic…blizzard today-early Wednesday for the NE US.

A powerful upper level trough moving across the OH valley this morning will spawn surface low pressure off the NJ coast today. This surface low will deepen at an incredible rate (30mb in 24hrs surface pressures falling through the 980’s) as it moves ENE toward SE MA. Very heavy snowfall will develop this afternoon in the region from NYC to Boston with hourly snowfall rates nearing 3-4 inches. The storm system slows on Tuesday allowing heavy snow to be prolonged across the region. Storm totals of 2-3 feet appear likely from NYC to eastern Maine with the highest totals upwards of 4 ft near/NW of Boston. Model QPF continues to show a large area of 2.5-3.0 inches of liquid and using standard snow ratios yields 25-30 inches of snow for a large area.

Sustained winds of 45-55mph with gust to 80mph will be likely across the region resulting in extensive blowing and drifting. Snow drifts may approach 10-15 ft in areas of highest accumulation. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the coast from Long Island to north of Boston and this will result in white out conditions and extensive ground blizzard.

Very strong onshore flow will result in moderate to major storm surge flooding especially in and around Boston where ENE winds will funnel into the coast. Damaging waves on top of the storm surge flooding may result in damage to coastal structures. Prolonged period of blowing sea spray and temperatures in the mid 20’s will support crippling ice accumulations on structures near the coast. The offshore islands and Cape Cod will suffer with hours of near hurricane force winds.

Doubt any NE US airport will remain open past late this afternoon and virtually the entire region will be shut down Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with crippling impacts at New York City, Boston, and Harford. May not see normal airport operations returned to the hardest hit areas until late week which will have a significant impact on US aviation travel.

This blizzard will likely rival some of the greatest storm total snowfalls on record for the region.

That is CRAZY!

I do wish for snow more often down here, but I don't wish that kind of Wintery weather on anyone. May be a long week for them, especially if snow records are threatened like they are saying.

[TheProfessor]

Well if Karma or the saying What goes around comes around means anything then perhaps we may see winter weather, a guy on the radio was laughing about the North East and their blizzard while we have an enjoyable (not enjoyable for me) 70 degrees and sun.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well if Karma or the saying What goes around comes around means anything then perhaps we may see winter weather, a guy on the radio was laughing about the North East and their blizzard while we have an enjoyable (not enjoyable for me) 70 degrees and sun.

NWS Amarillo posted something last week on Facebook about having more snow this winter than Philly, NYC and Boston. Yesterday they apologized for that. Snow is fun, but multiple feet with 75 mph wind and major storm surge is not fun it is a hurricane with snow.

[wxman57]

Well I'm guessing you're ignoring the Canadian/European Models then, it keeps the low somewhat stationary/keeping the ridge intact much longer than some of the other models...as you can see from the image below, not a lot of Pacific Air making into North America - flow is directly out of the Arctic Circle. With the warm water anomalies still anchored in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, I wouldn't be against that ridge holding firm.

No, I was looking mostly at the European Model which strengthens the low in the Gulf of Alaska and moves it eastward in 7 days.

Current 500mb Flow & Upper Low in Gulf of Alaska:


Forecast 500mb Flow in 7 days:


By day 10, the low does retreat westward some, allowing some colder than normal air into NE Alaska. But the flow pattern still isn't right to bring any significantly cold air into Texas:

[Ntxw]

Ag yes split flow vs zonal flow! Both can have different results! What matters is in Alaska, ridging there above a GOA low is split flow with +PNA ridge. Thats much better for wintry weather. Zonal flow where low heights extend from Alaska into the GOA that is a torch. Which will it be?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hello from Crested Butte, CO. Balmy 12 degrees this morning. Reading your posts and checking the models, hoping for a good dumping of snow on Friday here, unfortunately it will be a not so easy drive home on Saturday for us.

As far as Texas weather, we have been blessed with a couple of HP's bringing cold air down the lee side of the Rockies, but since Dec, the Polar Vortex seems to be a bit too far west to bring the really cold stuff down. Ntx's friend the -EPO has been doing its best to pump air in but we really want the cold polar air to make it here for an event with all snow.

Honestly, the coldest air we've had all year i think was the Arctic plunge we had in early/mid November. We need that kind of flow right about now!!!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looking at a few different forecasts, pretty much every forecast I have seen shows no cold, not even a freeze for 15 days up here along the red river. Depressing being this is the end of Jan.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hello from Crested Butte, CO. Balmy 12 degrees this morning. Reading your posts and checking the models, hoping for a good dumping of snow on Friday here, unfortunately it will be a not so easy drive home on Saturday for us.

As far as Texas weather, we have been blessed with a couple of HP's bringing cold air down the lee side of the Rockies, but since Dec, the Polar Vortex seems to be a bit too far west to bring the really cold stuff down. Ntx's friend the -EPO has been doing its best to pump air in but we really want the cold polar air to make it here for an event with all snow.

Honestly, the coldest air we've had all year i think was the Arctic plunge we had in early/mid November. We need that kind of flow right about now!!!!

Please go eat at Slogar for me!