Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

From a Meteorologist whom I respect a ton. Greg Fischel at WRAL in Raleigh, North Carolina posted this on his Facebook page. Again, this is why I like him so much..

A colleague of mine, who I like and highly respect, posted a blog this morning suggesting that conveying levels of uncertainty in a weather forecast only muddies the water, and that when push comes to shove, the meteorologist has to make a call. I guess I have a different take. Why pretend to be certain when you're not? There are many forecast situations that are slam dunks with a very high level of confidence. But, there are some with a very low degree of confidence, and many times these are the situations that have the greatest potential impact. I would think that all of you would want to know how much confidence we have, and what the potential scenarios are. Now for government officials, in my mind, you ALWAYS plan for the worst. Even if there's only a 20% chance of something horrific happening, if you don't plan for it and it happens, you've got big trouble on your hands. What do you think? And you won't hurt my feelings if you disagree with me

I made a presentation at the National Hurricane Conference last year on dealing with uncertainty in the forecasts (with respect to hurricanes). It's important to understand the level of uncertainty but also to understand that actions must be taken regardless in many cases.

I know. That was not directed at you. It was more to some of the mets in your industry who are soooo sure of everything...I can name a few in the Houston area... ( not you sir....)

[Texas Snowman]

I made a presentation at the National Hurricane Conference last year on dealing with uncertainty in the forecasts (with respect to hurricanes). It's important to understand the level of uncertainty but also to understand that actions must be taken regardless in many cases.

I know. That was not directed at you. It was more to some of the mets in your industry who are soooo sure of everything...I can name a few in the Houston area... ( not you sir....)

True that. We don't always like his warm-weather ways - or the way that he devilishly drives his point home as our resident Heat Miser - but we do love and respect Wxman57 on this board.

[Tireman4]

I made a presentation at the National Hurricane Conference last year on dealing with uncertainty in the forecasts (with respect to hurricanes). It's important to understand the level of uncertainty but also to understand that actions must be taken regardless in many cases.

I know. That was not directed at you. It was more to some of the mets in your industry who are soooo sure of everything...I can name a few in the Houston area... ( not you sir....)

True that. We don't always like his warm-weather ways - or the way that he devilishly drives his point home as our resident Heat Miser - but we do love and respect Wxman57 on this board.

I will say this and have constantly said this, his specialty is tropical meteorology. He nailed Ike...right down to 10 miles. This was 2008 when models were not all that great....so yes, I will always give him his due.

[iorange55]

I agree ntxw, that is why I said much of the south, Austin/I-10 corridor due east. Dallas and north and points east still might catch a miracle.

Except it wouldn't be a miracle. As NTXW mentioned, February is our best month.

[Portastorm]

Historically there has been 51 snow events (more than a trace) in Austin since 1898. January was the month which saw the most of these events with February a close second:

January - 18
February - 17
December - 8
November - 5
March - 3

Meanwhile, it's January 29th and at 12 noon here in the capital of the great state of Texas, it is 70 degrees, 7 degrees warmer than the normal high temperature.

[Tireman4]

Historically there has been 51 snow events (more than a trace) in Austin since 1898. January was the month which saw the most of these events with February a close second:

January - 18
February - 17
December - 8
November - 5
March - 3

Meanwhile, it's January 29th and at 12 noon here in the capital of the great state of Texas, it is 70 degrees, 7 degrees warmer than the normal high temperature.

Porta, I think we might just yet prevail .


GUINAN: Do you expect this battle to be won?
PICARD: We may yet prevail. That’s a conceit, but it’s a healthy one. I wonder if the Emperor Honorious, watching the Visigoths coming over the seventh hill, truly realized that the Roman Empire was about to fall. This is just another page in history, isn’t it? Will this be the end of our civilization? Turn the page.
GUINAN: This isn’t the end.
PICARD: You say that with remarkable assuredness.
GUINAN: With experience. When the Borg destroyed my world, my people scattered throughout the universe. We survived. As will humanity survive. As long as there’s a handful of you to keep the spirit alive, you will prevail. Even if it takes a millennium.

[dhweather]

The same could be said for people who are yelling its going to snow and get cold because one model run shows it 3 weeks out.

Its not about 1 or 2 particular runs of models, its the overall pattern. Its been the same all winter long and isn't going to miraculously change just because its February. Winter for much of the south is about 2/3 done and if nothing has happened by now chances are quickly diminishing that they ever will. And sure it could drop below freezing for one or two nights in Feb but its not going to be a prolonged event. I know this has been said a few times already this winter but its just like the last two hurricane seasons where we went through early and mid season and conditions were horrible and never showed signs of changing yet people were screaming wait 2 weeks, wait 4 weeks, its only october etc etc. And of course nothing ever changed regardless how much the GFS and CMC showed it.

Look I would love nothing less than to be buried in 30+ in of snow like the NE but I'm being a realist about things and not going around chasing rainbows and unicorns.

I got a good laugh out of that.


Every now and then, a unicorn will wash up, but they are really, really rare. It does seem that the models have been particularly cruel this winter. In two weeks, in two weeks, in two weeks, ha ha ha. Meanwhile it's been in the low 80s the last two days.

[dhweather]

Texas getting drier with each run. Go from 3+ inches in 10 days to 1" , hey, maybe tomorrow we will be lime green.

27 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP




28 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP




29 JAN 12Z 10 day RTP

[Ntxw]

One aspect from the fall that has been a total dud was the AO. I stood behind this index after doing extensive reading on October correlation and backed by the papers of Dr. Judah Cohen and the SAI advancement. The AO will be predominantly positive for DJF even if February sees record blocking of the Arctic Oscillation, back to the drawing board for this one. The EPO has held predominantly negative this winter, if not for that we would've had a torchy winter. November was the only month thus far we've managed to hook up the -AO with the -EPO

Precipitation wise DJ for Texas is typical of weak El Nino, near normal to above normal. The majority of above in the southern half to 2/3rd of the state. Wouldn't it be funny if come March it decides to tank for two months and give us a third freakishly cold spring with no severe weather?

[Tireman4]

One aspect from the fall that has been a total dud was the AO. I stood behind this index after doing extensive reading on October correlation and backed by the papers of Dr. Judah Cohen and the SAI advancement. The AO will be predominantly positive for DJF even if February sees record blocking of the Arctic Oscillation, back to the drawing board for this one. The EPO has held predominantly negative this winter, if not for that we would've had a torchy winter. November was the only month thus far we've managed to hook up the -AO with the -EPO

Precipitation wise DJ for Texas is typical of weak El Nino, near normal to above normal. The majority of above in the southern half to 2/3rd of the state. Wouldn't it be funny if come March it decides to tank for two months and give us a third freakishly cold spring with no severe weather?

It could happen. It could happen. This is a wacky Winter..so far...

[Ntxw]

It could happen. It could happen. This is a wacky Winter..so far...

We just need an 1895 Feb redux. That would keep the heat miser in hiding for months!

[Tireman4]

It could happen. It could happen. This is a wacky Winter..so far...

We just need an 1895 Feb redux. That would keep the heat miser in hiding for months!

Good Lord, we have that February 14, 1895 snowstorm here in Houston, we will never ever hear the end of it. Remember, I work a scant few miles from his work..LOL...oh my gracious. I think the sky will turn black like it did one Spring here...LOL


The worst recorded snowfall in Houston's history likely occurred on Feb. 14 -15, 1895. In all, the city received about 20 inches of snow. Measurable amounts of snow would not be recorded again in Houston until 1912.


http://bayoucityhistory.blogspot.com/20 ... wfall.html

[Ntxw]

Enough gloom for today! The ground is bare right now up and down the Great Plains with very little snow cover. By next week the difference will be better. We may not get snow from this weekend's system but at least it will lay cover to the north of us. Hopefully we can start February with improvement there!

[Ralph's Weather]

Aaron Tuttle points out that Sunday will likely be colder than modeled with the very cold source region temps. The 12Z GFS is showing upper 40s to near 50 Sunday morning and mid to upper 50s for Sunday afternoon so who knows how much colder it will be likely at least ten degrees. Now I expect frozen precip to stay in OK where they could see freezing rain Sunday morning. it looks like a rain or freezing rain set-up so we won't be missing out on much.

[Portastorm]

There has been a lot of chatter lately here about how the computer models have promised various winter weather events and not delivered. The point has been that the models are unreliable beyond the short range. I've also seen some posts which are suggesting winter is over or relatively so. Let's point something out now ... if the models are unreliable beyond the short range and they show warmth and continue the same pattern we have had lately ... how is that any more reliable than if they showed a winter storm? Sorry but you cannot have it one way and not the other. They are either unreliable beyond 3-4 days regardless of what type of weather they are showing or they are not. The "type" of weather shouldn't matter.

For my fellow winter weather lovers, this is the time of the season where I suggest you maybe step back a little bit ... check the model runs a little less frequently each day ... and check back here often. There will be something to talk about soon enough. Even if it is a fictitious storm on the GFS at Day 12.

What do we know? We know that a cold front will knock us down some 10-15 degrees from what we saw earlier this week over the next 3-4 days and some rain will fall this weekend. Beyond that, I'm not going to worry/fret about it.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD


ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
INDICATE MOST OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF
RAIN. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY MORNING...WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM BAJA WILL FINALLY MOVE CLOSER TO
TEXAS STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS VARY IN THEIR TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE WITH A TRACK EITHER ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OR THROUGH THE
STATE. A TRACK ALONG THE COAST TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AREA BUT A TRACK THROUGH THE STATE
WOULD LIKELY RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A TRACK
MORE THROUGH THE STATE WITH SOME RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[Tireman4]

There has been a lot of chatter lately here about how the computer models have promised various winter weather events and not delivered. The point has been that the models are unreliable beyond the short range. I've also seen some posts which are suggesting winter is over or relatively so. Let's point something out now ... if the models are unreliable beyond the short range and they show warmth and continue the same pattern we have had lately ... how is that any more reliable than if they showed a winter storm? Sorry but you cannot have it one way and not the other. They are either unreliable beyond 3-4 days regardless of what type of weather they are showing or they are not. The "type" of weather shouldn't matter.

For my fellow winter weather lovers, this is the time of the season where I suggest you maybe step back a little bit ... check the model runs a little less frequently each day ... and check back here often. There will be something to talk about soon enough. Even if it is a fictitious storm on the GFS at Day 12.

What do we know? We know that a cold front will knock us down some 10-15 degrees from what we saw earlier this week over the next 3-4 days and some rain will fall this weekend. Beyond that, I'm not going to worry/fret about it.

You are so right. It can change in an instant. We shall see.

[Ralph's Weather]

You are so right. It can change in an instant. We shall see.

I could see us having a shot at something wintery as early as this time next week. As has been said there is some very cold air currently in the source regions and air has to eventually move south. The path it takes south will make a big difference on how cold we get, but I expect at least a glancing blow of Arctic air late next week. And before that look for models to trend colder for late this weekend and early next week.

[TheProfessor]

I would say that the end of the 18Z GFS is extremely interesting for the Eastern half of Texas (North and South)
But we seem to be getting those once a twice a week now.

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

After what can only be described as pleasant the last few days…a reminder that it is still winter is upon the region this evening.

A cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in a colder air mass compared to the last 4-5 days. High temperatures on Friday will run about 10-15 degrees colder than the mid 70’s today and even colder air will arrive by late Sunday. An upper level storm system off of Baja this evening will meander into NW MX Saturday allowing mid and high level moisture to overrun the cold surface dome…a return to cloudy conditions as early as Friday followed by the onset of light rainfall late Saturday. Rain coverage will increase and intensify on Sunday as a polar frontal boundary approaches from the north and moisture pools ahead of this feature. Amounts are expected to by generally light by our standards or on the order of .25 to .50 of an inch.

Polar front pushes offshore Sunday afternoon/evening with strong cold air advection resulting in falling temperatures. Lows will return to the 30’s/40’s Monday with highs only in the low 50’s. A brief break in the rainfall potential for Sunday night into Monday as the polar air mass dries out the low levels, but we will probably not see the mid and high level cloud cover clear completely out. Rain chances return with the ejection of the main upper level low over MX Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, but there is considerable guidance spread on just how fast this system moves toward and across TX. Experience this winter with storms ejecting out of the Baja region has been that the slower solutions have tended to verify best.

Overall fairly cool to cold pattern looks to hold into middle February after this brief warm spell as the upper level pattern will support fronts every few days keeping cold air in place east of the Rockies.