Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

I must admit. I didn't believe the GFS ensembles would even come close for this upcoming weekend. Didn't see any signals that would correlate to this cold down here. But I'm not a weatherman. So what do I know. Hope we freeze before sweat season returns.

[asd123]

my summary of models coming soon

[asd123]

Florida's winter this year was noted by the lack of cold, but late this week into early next week there is the potential for some serious cold for Florida.

I will highlight Thursday night through Monday for cfla:

All Images Below Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

For Cfla: GFS:

Thursday Night: Upper 20s low 30s


Friday Highs: Low to mid 50s: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=102

Friday Night: Mid to upper 30s
Saturday highs: Low 60s, and then another front: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=126

Saturday night: Mid to upper 20s


Saturday Highs: low 60s

Sunday highs: low 40s: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=150

Sunday Night:


Monday Highs: Mid to upper 50s: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=174

GEFS slightly warmer than the operational: Sunday morning and Sunday highs considerably warmer.

One thing I wanted to emphasize on the Operational GFS are the INCREDIBLY low dew points being persistently forecasted to approach -20F. This starts early Sunday morning into Monday. Note that bullseye North of Lake Okeechobee (-40):


ECWMF: Verbal summary no pics! (Weatherbell)
Thursday Night: Mid to upper 30s
Friday highs: Mid 50s

Friday Night: Low 30s
Saturday: Upper 50s, low 60s, and then another front

Saturday Night: Mid to upper 20s, still dropping after Sunday 12z
Sunday HIGHS: Upper 30s, low 40s

Sunday Night: Mid to upper 20s
Monday highs: upper 40s low 50s

Sunday Night looks to be a possible strong radiational cooling (temperature inversion) event as 850mb temps are above freezing, but 2m lows are well below freezing

ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly warmer than operational, but ECMWF control is colder than the mean, and closer to the operational.

The GEM model I won't even post, as it's been way off and extreme.

Folks, this looks to be the game changer, and winter looks like it will go out with a bang!

Another thing is that the teleconnections are largely unfavorable for this event (NAO and AO). However, the PNA is spiking, and the EPO and WPO are tanking).

[NDG]

Dewpoints -20 deg F all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, that's what assures me the GFS is on crack, lol.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Dewpoints -20 deg F all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, that's what assures me the GFS is on crack, lol.

That's actually a close to -40 bullseye. I checked on Wunderground Wundermaps (Image Below Courtesy of Wunderground) Dashed line boundaries are dewpoints, not colors, DEW POINTS ARE IN DEGREES CELSIUS. ). Click on bar above image on previous dewpoint pic post to see full size. Cfla starting early Sunday morning into Monday, the GFS has persistently forecasted extremely low dewpoints. On this run, the GFS sees widespread negative dewpoints for Florida starting early Sunday into Monday. On the dewpoint map I posted, there is widespread -teens for cfla dewpoints with a close to -40 bullseye n of Lake Okeechobeee. Look closely; you should see it.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Dewpoints -20 deg F all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, that's what assures me the GFS is on crack, lol.

That's actually a -40 bullseye. Click on bar above image to see full size. Cfla starting early Sunday morning into Monday, the GFS has persistently forecasted extremely low dewpoints. On this run, the GFS sees widespread negative dewpoints for Florida starting early Sunday into Monday. On the dewpoint map I posted, there is widespread -teens for cfla dewpoints with a -40 bullseye n of Lake Okeechobeee. Look closely; you should see it.

That would be impossible, during the great freeze of late January 1985, the lowest dewpoints recorded in the Orlando area was only near zero degrees F.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Dewpoints -20 deg F all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, that's what assures me the GFS is on crack, lol.

That's actually a -40 bullseye. Click on bar above image to see full size. Cfla starting early Sunday morning into Monday, the GFS has persistently forecasted extremely low dewpoints. On this run, the GFS sees widespread negative dewpoints for Florida starting early Sunday into Monday. On the dewpoint map I posted, there is widespread -teens for cfla dewpoints with a -40 bullseye n of Lake Okeechobeee. Look closely; you should see it.

That would be impossible, during the great freeze of late January 1985, the lowest dewpoints recorded in the Orlando area was only near zero degrees F.

Maybe on Tropical Tidbits I am misreading n or lake Okeechobbee, or it's an error. But looking at the Wunderground map, it does show widespread -teens dewpoints. Image Courtesy of Wunderground:

The same Wunderground map shows -25 to -30 degrees Celsius (-13 to -22 Fahrenheit) for the Orlando area.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z NAM just in - it now goes out to the first potential freeze night for peninsula FL - Thu night. Looks warmer than the GFS by 2-3 degrees. Nonetheless, still showing widespread mid to upper 30s down into Central Florida.

[NDG]

That's actually a -40 bullseye. Click on bar above image to see full size. Cfla starting early Sunday morning into Monday, the GFS has persistently forecasted extremely low dewpoints. On this run, the GFS sees widespread negative dewpoints for Florida starting early Sunday into Monday. On the dewpoint map I posted, there is widespread -teens for cfla dewpoints with a -40 bullseye n of Lake Okeechobeee. Look closely; you should see it.

That would be impossible, during the great freeze of late January 1985, the lowest dewpoints recorded in the Orlando area was only near zero degrees F.

Maybe on Tropical Tidbits I am misreading n or lake Okeechobbee, or it's an error. But looking at the Wunderground map, it does show widespread -teens dewpoints. Image Courtesy of Wunderground: http://i59.tinypic.com/2czor2t.jpg

The same Wunderground map shows -25 to -30 degrees Celsius (-13 to -22 Fahrenheit) for the Orlando area.

I am not questioning your forecasting sources, I am just saying that those forecasted dewpoints by the GFS are impossible. If they were to be true under clear skies & light winds Monday morning with those kind of dewpoints there would be single digits for lows in central FL.
Like I mentioned, the lowest dewpoint recorded during the great freeze of 1985 when Orlando recorded an all time record low of 19 degrees at the Int'l airport was only around zero degrees F.
The GFS is on crack forecasting those -20 & -30 deg dewpoints for central FL, lol.

[asd123]

Oh Okay, NDG. I see what you're saying. What is wrong with the GFS? Why has it been persistently forecasting these extremely low dewpoints? Why isn't forecasting the single digit lows? (imagine what would happen!!!) By the way the 30 degree dp was for s florida.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Oh Okay, NDG. I see what you're saying. What is wrong with the GFS? Why has it been persistently forecasting these extremely low dewpoints? Why isn't forecasting the single digit lows? (imagine what would happen!!!) By the way the 30 degree dp was for s florida.

I have no idea what is making it forecast -30 deg C (-22 deg F) dewpoints all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, is in its mid range forecast so as we know it is usually fairly erroneous which is expected.
In the other hand the Euro shows dewpoints in the single digits F for central F for the same time period, which is more believable.

[psyclone]

Tampa had 0 degree dewpoints during the Dec 2010 cold outbreak.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Oh Okay, NDG. I see what you're saying. What is wrong with the GFS? Why has it been persistently forecasting these extremely low dewpoints? Why isn't forecasting the single digit lows? (imagine what would happen!!!) By the way the 30 degree dp was for s florida.

I have no idea what is making it forecast -30 deg C (-22 deg F) dewpoints all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, is in its mid range forecast so as we know it is usually fairly erroneous which is expected.
In the other hand the Euro shows dewpoints in the single digits F for central F for the same time period, which is more believable.

Actually, the Euro shows for cfla dew points going from Sunday 1 AM (low to mid 30s to mid 20s) going to negative single digits and - teens by 7am, rising, and then staying in the single digits into Monday morning. Our hometown of Orlando is shown 1AM Sunday (35 degrees ) going down to -6 degrees by 7am.

[psyclone]

The GFS doesn't like us. tries to freeze us to death in winter and blow us away in the summer.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Dewpoints -20 deg F all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, that's what assures me the GFS is on crack, lol.

Well..i'd say the fact that the 13-km GFS is on board gives higher confidence so we shall see.

[psyclone]

it's good we got a solid dousing of rain. serious fire weather potential with low dewpoints and gusty CAA.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Oh Okay, NDG. I see what you're saying. What is wrong with the GFS? Why has it been persistently forecasting these extremely low dewpoints? Why isn't forecasting the single digit lows? (imagine what would happen!!!) By the way the 30 degree dp was for s florida.

I have no idea what is making it forecast -30 deg C (-22 deg F) dewpoints all the way down to Lake Okeechobee, is in its mid range forecast so as we know it is usually fairly erroneous which is expected.
In the other hand the Euro shows dewpoints in the single digits F for central F for the same time period, which is more believable.

Actually, the Euro shows for cfla dew points going from Sunday 1 AM (low to mid 30s to low 20s) going to negative single digits and - teens by 7am, rising, and then staying in the single digits into Monday morning. Our hometown of Orlando is shown 1AM Sunday (35 degrees ) going down to -6 degrees by 7am.

Same ECMWF run for Orlando we go from 1AM Sun 52 degrees to 30 degrees on 7AM. Perfectly correlates with the plunging dew points.

[SFLcane]

[asd123]

How did you find that map, SFLcane? I have a Weatherbell subscription yet I haven't been able to find it. Can you post a link to the page before that image?

[NDG]

Lol, 0z GFS starting to back off some now.