Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

I think this is the first time King Euro hits Central Florida with a freeze this far out....interesting days ahead for sure. Winter is going to go out with a bang it looks like!

[asd123]

I think this is the first time King Euro hits Central Florida with a freeze this far out....interesting days ahead for sure. Winter is going to go out with a bang it looks like!

Let's hope it doesn't change like this past time. I don't know if you noticed that on Weatherbell, the ECMWF shows a huge dusting of snow across the deep south (total accumulated snowfall) into north Florida Wednesday into Thursday.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Even the NWS is being cautious for the middle to end of next week. I think will get some upper 40's for night next week again for S.Fl. but that's it.

Long term (saturday-wednesday)...
a return to zonal flow is expected late into the weekend and early
next week. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) both then show another strong short
wave moving across the northern and eastern states around the middle
of next week. The GFS shows a much more amplified pattern with
another strong cold front moving into South Florida Wednesday or
Thursday while the European model (ecmwf) has the front moving into central Florida
and then ooze south over the next couple of days. At any rate, it
looks like a cool pattern for the next several days possibly
returning to near or slightly above average by early next week with
another possible cool spell to end next week.

[SeGaBob]

I think this is the first time King Euro hits Central Florida with a freeze this far out....interesting days ahead for sure. Winter is going to go out with a bang it looks like!

Let's hope it doesn't change like this past time. I don't know if you noticed that on Weatherbell, the ECMWF shows a huge dusting of snow across the deep south (total accumulated snowfall) into north Florida Wednesday into Thursday.

What about up this way?

[asd123]

I think this is the first time King Euro hits Central Florida with a freeze this far out....interesting days ahead for sure. Winter is going to go out with a bang it looks like!

Let's hope it doesn't change like this past time. I don't know if you noticed that on Weatherbell, the ECMWF shows a huge dusting of snow across the deep south (total accumulated snowfall) into north Florida Wednesday into Thursday.

What about up this way?

ECMWF 12z today:
Maybe a dusting of snow late next Wednesday into Thursday.

Wednesday High: 50 degrees
Wednesday night low: 23 degrees

Thursday high: 39 degrees
Thursday night low: 26 degrees

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS still shows next week's freeze but a little warmer. Comparison below. Here we go again. Can we say the GFS has a cold-bias?!?

[northjaxpro]

Actually, gatorcane, and I touched on this last night, but I am inclined to think that next week's cold spell may be the coldest we will see this winter for a couple of reasons. First, with a developing winter storm the models are depicting to traverse just ahead of the sharpening upper trough next week, the potential of a snowpack to expand across portions of the TN Valley and Mid Atlantic regions will help to not moderate the arctic air mass as much next week as it moves south. Also, models are showing potential of high 1040s mb Arctic High dropping south next week down into the Midwest and eventually southeast into the TN VALLEY. Everything will hinge on the orientation of the Arctic High next week and how close it will get to the peninsula, but the extremely cold 850mb temps look really impressive with next week's cold spell and although we will likely see freezing temps this weekend in Jax and all across the Northern peninsula, next week's cold spell may potentially be colder!!

[SeGaBob]

Thanks asd123, maybe it will work out. (down there also)
The only thing that's bad is it's 8 days away.

[HURRICANELONNY]

More like reality is setting in.

[SFLcane]

I don't buy ANY of these models...there is a reason it rarely gets that cold here extreme southern florida. Everything just has to fall in place. After runs showng 40's and 30's it looks like the brunt of the cold will slide east. Bla..

Get me a -NAO then we talk.

[gatorcane]

Actually, gatorcane, and I touched on this last night, but I am inclined to think that next week's cold spell may be the coldest we will see this winter for a couple of reasons. First, with a developing winter storm the models are depicting to traverse just ahead of the sharpening upper trough next week, the potential of a snowpack to expand across portions of the TN Valley and Mid Atlantic regions will help to not moderate the arctic air mass as much next week as it moves south. Also, models are showing potential of high 1040s mb Arctic High dropping south next week down into the Midwest and eventually southeast into the TN VALLEY. Everything will hinge on the orientation of the Arctic High next week and how close it will get to the peninsula, but the extremely cold 850mb temps look really impressive with next week's cold spell and although we will likely see freezing temps this weekend in Jax and all across the Northern peninsula, next week's cold spell may potentially be colder!!

Indeed it does look impressive and the situation warrants attention, especially with today's ECMWF run. The ECMWF is the model to watch in my opinion regarding potential FL peninsula freezes so we should keep an eye on what this model is showing. GFS has proven to have a cold-bias. I have been following it regarding it's forecasted temps for parts of the Northeast U.S. and it definitely has had a cold-bias even in the 3-5 day range. I am wondering if the GFS upgrade is the reason.

[NDG]

Let me remind you guys as good as the Euro might be compared to the GFS, the Euro's 192 hr forecast could be just as wrong on its solution as just as correct. Give me some consistency before I jump on the wagon with the GFS, lol.
A couple of days ago the Euro on just one run did the same thing of agreeing with the GFS's forecast of freezing temps for Central FL this weekend before it started backing away.

[psyclone]

Also keep in mind the "latest freeze" line is lifting north. Each day it gets easier to argue against extreme cold just based on climo absent something really anomalous.

[ronjon]

Actually Thursday morning next week looks like the coldest air of the season. The long wave trough will be deep and further west which will allow the artic high to produce cold air drainage flow down the peninsula. Still a ways off and we've seen many false alarms weeks out with the models this year. GFS 850 mb zero line into central Florida next Thursday morning. AFD from NWS tampa bay mentions this.

[northjaxpro]

Actually Thursday morning next week looks like the coldest air of the season. The long wave trough will be deep and further west which will allow the artic high to produce cold air drainage flow down the peninsula. Still a ways off and we've seen many false alarms weeks out with the models this year. GFS 850 mb zero line into central Florida next Thursday morning. AFD from NWS tampa bay mentions this.

Indeed. I have been mentioning this potential the past couple of days. Next week's cold spell potentially looks to be the coldest of the season for the reasons I pointed out in a post just above on this very page. More on next week's cold spell later.

This weeked's cold spell will give us freezes here in Jax and across the northern peninsula for tomorrow morning and again Saturday morning. Right now, minimum temps look to be in the lower 30s for Jax and the upper 20s for Saturday morning as Saturday morning we should see good radiational cooling as the moderating Arctic High will be hovering near the North Florida region. The High will sink farther south and shift our winds more out of the west out ahead of the next arctic front, which will be be moving through this area late Saturday evening. Sunday looks winday and very cold but dry, with temps in the upper 20s to near 30 here Sunday morning and highs only in the mid-upper 40s.

[NDG]

GFS already started backing away with Themis for next Thursday morning, lol, nothing new from the GFS.

[psyclone]

Best to disregard freeze potential until the event is inside 72 hours.

[boca]

As long as the NAO stays positive here in Florida we will get cooler not colder. In my opinion it doesnt matter what the GFS or the Euro is forcasting because in order for it to get actually colder here in South Florida the NAO has to tank. I don't think that will happen.

[asd123]

The GFS operational has trended slightly warmer for Thursday morning; significantly colder for wed morning.

Strangely enough, The GFS ensemble is way colder than the operational for Thursday morning. What does this mean?

All Images Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

GFS operational Thursday morning:


GFS Ensemble Thursday morning:

[northjaxpro]

Now, rememeber, we all know the GFS has had this real cold bias all winter. But, I will again say that next week's mid-week cold snap could be just as cold, if not colder as this weekend's cold snap. I just looked at the latest runs and EURO and GFS are in remarkable agreement with significant cyclogenesis developing early next week across the Lower MS Valley. This could also become a severe weather threat with the warm advection immediately ahead of this system along portions of the Gulf Coast and east into North Florida Monday into Tuesday. Also, it appears moisture will be sufficient on the backside of the Low as strong cold air advection rushes in that will provide a potential of snow across the Mid-South and TN Valley region the mid portion of next week. If a fresh snowpack can materialize in those regions, and with another deep upper trough moving down across the central and eventually Eastern CONUS, the arctic airmass won't be able to moderate as quickly.

I am still inclined to think that we could see temps well down into the 20s by next Thursday across the northern Florida peninsula. Lots of variables still in play for the middle of next week, but I will say that I would not be shocked atall if the trends will go colder in the days to come leading into the middle of next week. So, don't dismiss the potential magnitude of next week's event concerning the potentialfor a freeze for those of you living down in the central peninsula i.e. NDG, asd123, psyclone and others.