Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

The GFS showed 10+ inches of snow and 11 degrees here just 5 days out about a week ago and dropped it... It turned out that it was sunny and 70 degrees that day. So don't trust it within 5 days is my advice.

It did get the flurries in Florida right 5 days out so I can give it that.

yes, SeGaBob, indeed the GFS did get that right here 120 hours out. I am a living witness to that event.

[aggiecutter]

Shreveport AFD: Looks like a good chance of snow for Texarkana on Tuesday night-Wednesday morning:

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A MESS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME TSTMS ACROSS E OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO
BEND TO KELD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LARGE
CHUNK OF DEEP ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP COMPLETELY EXITS THE
AREA. /09/

[MGC]

The cold is coming next week if you are buying into the models a week out. Hope they are wrong....MGC

[GTStorm]

The cold is coming next week if you are buying into the models a week out. Hope they are wrong....MGC

low 40's for highs here on Sunday, well below normal. which will have a reasonable chance of verifying since there is no precip. involved. If snow were forecast, then we'd certainly wind up with mid 50's and rain. Nothing interesting ever happens here.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The GFS showed 10+ inches of snow and 11 degrees here just 5 days out about a week ago and dropped it... It turned out that it was sunny and 70 degrees that day. So don't trust it within 5 days is my advice.

It did get the flurries in Florida right 5 days out so I can give it that.

I was wondering if anybody was going to bring that up. Models have been doing this all winter and like I mentioned earlier nws and models were talking record low temps for us this weekend and now for this week we have one light freeze forecast then back in the 60's. Don't know why so many are so quick to jump on the winter is back bandwagon a week out when models can't get weather right 5 days on in. Think people are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment next week.

[hurricanehunter69]

starting to get a tease tingle.....153 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model better than last several runs, gotta love the 6Z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[BigB0882]

It looks like the cold will be there, at least for a little while. We need to the low to be far enough south and the timing to be right. Seriously doubt it comes together but at least it is something to watch for in the runs.

[Hammy]

As expected, the snow has been removed from the forecast here.

[Stormcenter]

Where is here?

As expected, the snow has been removed from the forecast here.

[Hammy]

Where is here?

As expected, the snow has been removed from the forecast here.

Winder (a bit east of Atlanta)

[stormlover2013]

We are still 6 days away a lot of model watching heck it might not even get to cold if gfs is right just have to wait and see

[SeGaBob]

12Z GFS seems a bit south of it's previous run with the low pressure.

[timmeister]

12Z GFS seems a bit south of it's previous run with the low pressure.

Yes, closer to the 06Z GFS from yesterday but the low is a bit further north of that run. Let's hope that the trend continues and the low will track even further south the next several days. It's the only hope we have to get any snow this year in South Central Mississippi.



The NWS in Jackson has light snow in the long term forecast, but mainly for the areas around and north of I-20. Unless the low shifts further south, we will only get cold rain in Hattiesburg.

GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT
THE BEST LIFT TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION PRIOR TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A MIXTURE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL BE THINNING AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO LEAVE THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS.

Update:

NWS in Jackson, MS now forecasting a rain/snow mix for Hattiesburg Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.

Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%

[timmeister]

GFS 18Z, low is just a tad further south....looking good for now!

[SeGaBob]

I wonder how much more it would take to get snow here...

The low in that image is almost directly over me.

[timmeister]

Fresh forecast in from the NWS in Jackson, MS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THIS REGION. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW (OR LOWS IN THE EURO) WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO


IMPACT PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND OUR DELTA AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY PRECIPITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EURO SHOWING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
WILL HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRES.

FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
DELTA AREAS/82 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT IN THOSE AREAS...AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES AND A DEEP
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /SW/

[BigB0882]

Trending in the right direction. Now if we can get that low to slow down so the amounts might be higher.

[SeGaBob]

Today marks five years since our snow event down here. I got 3 inches from that storm...I won't forget that.

It was also the first time I ever saw snow. (haven't seen it since)

[BigB0882]

The DGEX looks very interesting. It is posted in the TX thread. No idea how reliable it is.

[timmeister]

Trending in the right direction. Now if we can get that low to slow down so the amounts might be higher.

Here's the 18Z NAVGEM. I made a 30 HR Loop, has the low slowing down, but it's too far north.