Florida Weather

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psyclone
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#9421 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:24 pm

there's plenty of elephant ears, bananas and other tender vegetation around central florida so it will be interesting to see what gets zapped. I notice that Ruskin left Pinellas out of its freeze watch as I anticipated but the usual cold areas should expect at least a brief freeze and protect plants accordingly.
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#9422 Postby gatorcane » Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:46 pm

psyclone, update from NWS Tampa 9:25pm, snippet, now Pinellas in the freeze watch:

ONE CHANGE NEEDED FOR TONIGHTS UPDATE. AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF
OUR HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE REGARDING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE TO BRING
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ADD PINELLAS TO THE FREEZE WATCH WITH THIS
PACKAGE. BETTER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GIVE RESIDENTS
MORE TIME TO PREPARE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9423 Postby SFLcane » Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:59 pm

:cold:

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DROP THE LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL LET THE EARLY MORNING
SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING
TO SEE IF THE LOWS NEED TO BE DROPED FURTHER.
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#9424 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:00 pm

The way things are trending, I think freeze watches, if they have not been posted already, will be warranted for Friday morning across interior areas surrounding Lake Okeechobee and across south central peninsula during the day tomorrow. If NWS have already posted them, may be upgraded to warnings in those areas during tomorrow.
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#9425 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:19 pm

I think it's warranted...I'm cold already.
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#9426 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:21 pm

some of the usual cold spots in interior southwest and west central fl could near hard freeze criteria (Hardee, Desoto, eastern Charlotte, Glades, Highland)
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#9427 Postby gatorcane » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:29 pm

Nws Tampa shows freezing temps even down into south Pinellas now with 29 in some locales across northern Pinellas. If this verifies, this will be the coldest it has been in years.
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#9428 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:34 pm

Just checked the latest surface obs upstream and the arctic frontal boundary is currently dropping through Southern GA and will move through the North Florida region between 1 a.m - 4 a.m.and moving through the remainder of the peninsula by tomorrow afternoon. Temps already are in the lower 20s across North GA and dew points well down in the single digits at this hour. Also, northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph behind the arctic front up in those areas with dangerous wind chills. That air headed our way! Mid 20s still look to be a good bet here in the morning
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Re:

#9429 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:Nws Tampa shows freezing temps even down into south Pinellas now with 29 in some locales across northern Pinellas. If this verifies, this will be the coldest it has been in years.

I am now at 29 for my neighborhood. I see a 27 in the northeastern most part of the county just above keystone. good grief. if this verifies it's gonna leave a mark.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9430 Postby FireRat » Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:21 am

Currently 45 degrees with a dew point of 34 at my locale, light north-northwest winds. With 5 more hours of darkness it seems we might dip into the upper 30s by daybreak. This night already rivals the coldest one from Valentine's day for my place.
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#9431 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:35 am

NWS MIami has gone ahead and issued freeze warnings for all interior areas of South Florida away from the immediate Southeast Florida coastal areas for Friday morning. Tomorrow morning may be the coldest day seen in South Florida since late December 2010, a period spanning over 4 years!! The orientation of the Arctic High(1034 mb) currently moving down into the Lower MS Valley is bringing a very deep north- northwesterly flow directly from Siberia all the way into the entire peninsula. This airmass is bringing in extremely cold, arctic air and dew points will fall well into the single digits across northern peninsula and into the teens and twenties down into the rest of the peninsula by tomorrow morning.

As the Arctic High dome shifts east later tonight over the Southeast U.S., winds will get light enough to allow radiational cooling conditions across the region. The flow will be due north tonight, and that trajectory will likely allow that arctic air to drain right down the spine of the peninsula. I would not be surprised at all to see upper 20s across areas of the central peninsula, and it could get down into the low and mid 20s across the Nature Coast, especially Brooksville, where cold air drainage events like for Friday morning will likely materialize across that region.

The trends keep getting colder going into Friday's big freeze. As for today, the arctic boundary has just moved through the Jax area. Northwest winds are now blowing at 15 mph with gusts up into 20-25 mph range currently. Currently, it is 33.2 degrees and with strong cold air advection rushing in now, temperatures will continue to drop down into the 27-30 degree range here in Jax until about 8:30 this morning. Temps will not warm today, despite the higher sun angle, with such a deep intrusion of arctic air over us, temps are only forecast to reach the lower-mid 40s here in Jacksonville. Maybe, if we are lucky, we may get to 50 for max on Friday. There will likely be many locations both today and Friday where not only will we see record low temps get set, but also record low maximums will occur across many spots across the peninsula.

NWS now going with 20 degrees for the low temperature in Jax for tomorrow morning with the good possibility of the normally colder interior spots across North and Northeast Florida dropping into the upper teens.

So, a potentially record breaking cold spell for the entire peninsula Florida for the next 36-48 hours. Old Man Winter is finally going to give you all down the rest of the peninsula a pretty good punch for the first time this winter season. Just imagine if the NAO was in a negative phase currently. I shudder to think how much colder this would have been if that had been the case!

Have a great day everyone and I will check back in later. Stay warm!! Good news is we will be back in the 70s most areas of the peninsula by Sunday as this deep polar airmass will move out and the return flow will settle back in over us, at least for a few days. But, models are indicating another cool down come mid-late week, at least for my region of North Florida, but that's for discussing later. We all have to get through these next couple of frigid days for our standards!
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Re: Florida Weather

#9432 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:15 am

Bust in Temps this morning, mid to upper 20s was the forecasted lows for this morning across North FL including Ocala, instead upper 20s to low 30s seems to be the lowest it will get.
Low to mid 30s was the forecasted lows this morning along the I-4 corridor, instead upper 30s to maybe some mid 30s. Brooksville was forecasted to go down to 29 this morning, instead is currently sitting at 37 degrees.
Your NWS office is always going to with the lowest possible temps, this morning was a good example. In the areas where the winds stay up during the night tonight I will not be surprised if it does not get as low as forecasted.

Edit: There were also some busts this morning in parts of South FL, West Palm Beacch was forecasted to down to 39, instead is in the mid 40s.
Miami and Ft Lauderdale was forecasted to go down to the low 40s instead is in the upper 40s this morning.
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#9433 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:36 am

Well, NDG, it did not get as cold as forecasted this morning because the arctic boundary is just now moving down into the peninsula. I noticed the shift to northwest and gusty winds up to 25 mph here at my locale just before 4 a.m. Temp was 36 degrees at that time, now at 29.4 degrees. So, the arctic boundary was delayed a couple of hours here. If it had come through a bit earlier, mid 20s would have verified easily here for this morning.
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Re:

#9434 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:07 am

northjaxpro wrote:Well, NDG, it did not get as cold as forecasted this morning because the arctic boundary is just now moving down into the peninsula. I noticed the shift to northwest and gusty winds up to 25 mph here at my locale just before 4 a.m. Temp was 36 degrees at that time, now at 29.4 degrees. So, the arctic boundary was delayed a couple of hours here. If it had come through a bit earlier, mid 20s would have verified easily here for this morning.


I could see your point but you think that at least the short range MOS guidance would had caught on, for example the 06z GFS MOS guidance had forecasted KJAX to be at 22 degrees F at 12z.
MOS guidance IMO is way too cold biased with this event, hopefully :)
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Re: Re:

#9435 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:13 am

NDG wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Well, NDG, it did not get as cold as forecasted this morning because the arctic boundary is just now moving down into the peninsula. I noticed the shift to northwest and gusty winds up to 25 mph here at my locale just before 4 a.m. Temp was 36 degrees at that time, now at 29.4 degrees. So, the arctic boundary was delayed a couple of hours here. If it had come through a bit earlier, mid 20s would have verified easily here for this morning.


I could see your point but you think that at least the short range MOS guidance would had caught on, for example the 06z GFS MOS guidance had forecasted KJAX to be at 22 degrees F at 12z.
MOS guidance IMO is way too cold biased with this event, hopefully :)



Maybe NDG, but I don't think MOS will be that far off unfortunately. A good bet that we will see at least lower 20s interior areas of North Florida tomorrow morning, mid-upper 20s in proper metro Jax and upper 20s to near 30 toward the Jax Beach area. This is an impressive late season cold spell to say the least.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9436 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:37 am

I pointed out yesterday that the forecast lows often bust during these cold spells.. atleast down here in South Florida. It takes the perfect setup to get freezing temperatures down here in metro SE Florida. As of right now NWS Miami is forecasting freezing temps as far south as western parts of Boynton Beach in Palm Beach County. They are also forecasting a freeze for the Redlands in Miami-Dade county. My point and click forecast in Boca Raton is 37 and I would bet that we do not go below 40.
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#9437 Postby SFLcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:06 am

It's called " mixing " Temps stop dropping overnight . Tonight could be a very cold night for sfl if everything works out. Feels frigid outside in Miami with these blustery winds just stay away from the shade.
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#9438 Postby gatorcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:30 am

Wow it's rare to see white on this Dewpoint map...the arctic surge is invading Florida as I type this :eek:

Image

Snippet from NWS Miami:

DISCUSSION... ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
SENDING AN ARCTIC BLAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA. H85 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
19.00Z GFS RUN BRINGS THE H85 0C ISOTHERM TO MIAMI! THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DURING THE COLD OUTBREAK OF DEC.
28, 2010 THE MIAMI SOUNDING REGISTERED AN H85 TEMP OF -0.3C.) IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW COLD OUR SOUNDING GETS THIS EVENING.
EITHER WAY...THIS AIRMASS MEANS BUSINESS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re: Florida Weather

#9439 Postby Sanibel » Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:18 pm

56*. If you can get out of the wind the sun is still warm.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9440 Postby SFLcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:26 pm

12z EURO.... :froze:
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