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NDG
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#9461 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:29 pm

Just looked on Wundermap.
As the sun set temps went down to the upper 30s across the I-10 corridor, down to the mid 40s across the I-4 corridor and low to mid 50s across S FL.
Come on wind, don't give up :)
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#9462 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:36 pm

NDG, the winds are beginning to drop off here. North/Northwest currently at around 10 mph. Temp now at 36.8 degrees and dropping rapidly.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9463 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:37 pm

NDG wrote:
asd123 wrote:You know Central Floridians, after this cold, we still have hope. The coldest and latest time it's been for Orlando was 27 on March 14, 1932. Also, a couple of days later it hit 30 on March 16, 1932. March 15, 1932 (33 degrees) saw record lows too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... .wmo=99999

To see details click on number date on calendar.

Image Courtesy of Wunderground:
http://i62.tinypic.com/2jg19ib.jpg


I rather have 90 degree record highs during March ;)
Which by the way, I am still calling for a very warm end of Feb/early March as the PNA is forecasted by the ensembles unanimously to go negative over the next 2 weeks.


Given the warm outlook, do you think we'll see some seabreeze storms in late feb/march (not regular summertime pattern, just here and there)?
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#9464 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:00 pm

I love the episodes of sea fog that often follows big cold events as warmer, more humid air comes over the frigid gulf waters.
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#9465 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:06 pm

That 's a good point psyclone. As a matter of fact, that very subject was mentioned by the NWS Jax mets in their afternoon AFD. Once the return flow sets in on Saturday, the possibility of sea fog occuring late Saturday into Saturday night as the southeast to south wind flow advects over the chilly Atlantic waters. Highs expected in the low to md 70s here on Sunday.

Temp now at 34.6 degrees now. Temp dropped 6 full degrees in the past hour at my locale. Should get below freezing within the hour.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9466 Postby SFLcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:08 pm

Image
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#9467 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:22 pm

NWS Jax office recorded 42 degrees for the official max temp. A new record low max which I touched on a while ago.


_--------------------------------------------------


Record Report
202
SXUS72 KJAX 192256
RERJAX

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
0556 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSONVILLE TODAY...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT THE JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT
TODAY WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF
47 DEGREES SET IN 1928.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9468 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:23 pm

asd123 wrote:
NDG wrote:
asd123 wrote:You know Central Floridians, after this cold, we still have hope. The coldest and latest time it's been for Orlando was 27 on March 14, 1932. Also, a couple of days later it hit 30 on March 16, 1932. March 15, 1932 (33 degrees) saw record lows too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... .wmo=99999

To see details click on number date on calendar.

Image Courtesy of Wunderground:
http://i62.tinypic.com/2jg19ib.jpg


I rather have 90 degree record highs during March ;)
Which by the way, I am still calling for a very warm end of Feb/early March as the PNA is forecasted by the ensembles unanimously to go negative over the next 2 weeks.


Given the warm outlook, do you think we'll see some seabreeze storms in late feb/march (not regular summertime pattern, just here and there)?


If enough moisture moves in, yes, I have seen it before in early March.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9469 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:26 pm

I've seen it here and there way before the late May early June timeframe.

Example: https://orlandoweather.wordpress.com/20 ... -in-march/ (first post)
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#9470 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:44 pm

Glad to see that the NWS offices did not go as low as the MOS guidance which is already busting.
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Re:

#9471 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:48 pm

NDG wrote:Glad to see that the NWS offices did not go as low as the MOS guidance which is already busting.


How is the MOS busting?
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Re: Re:

#9472 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:16 pm

asd123 wrote:
NDG wrote:Glad to see that the NWS offices did not go as low as the MOS guidance which is already busting.


How is the MOS busting?


MOS guidance so far is too cold, for example the forecast low from the MOS guidance for KJAX (Jax Int'l Airport) is 16 degrees instead the NWS office in Jax is going with 22 degrees instead.
MOS guidance was calling for KJAX to be at 32 degrees at 7 PM, instead it was at 35 degrees.
MOS guidance was calling for Orlando Int'l to be at 42 degrees at 7 PM, instead it was at 47 degrees.
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#9473 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:18 pm

Winds have now gone calm here at my locale and the temperature is just about at the freeze mark, 32.7 degrees at the moment. Looks like a solid 12 hour freeze for tonight into tomorrow morning. If it wind stays calm, that 20 degree low forecasted will come close to fruition here by sunrise.
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#9474 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:20 pm

MOS is about 3-5 degrees colder NDG, but considering, it is still reasonably close and it still will get it close to right across some spots, especially up here across North Florida.
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#9475 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:27 pm

Winds in my locale have picked up if anything after sunset so temps are holding in the mid 40s.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9476 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:28 pm

Why do you think the bust is happening?
Also, I've heard about these busts (higher than forecast) for lows a lot of times in the immediate forecasts before. I have never heard of busts happening where the lows end up colder than forecasted (underbust highs I've heard plenty of times).
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Re: Florida Weather

#9477 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:43 pm

Enjoy this cold night cfla, cause tomorrow night will be warmer a little bit. Saturday 1 AM will be coldish, but then it will start warming up. cfla 850 mb and 10m winds 1 AM Saturday: ENE
7 am Saturday 850 mb and 10m: ESE!!!

Inlands will be luckier, as they will remain colder, there will be a sharp temperature gradient Saturday morning between the inland and the coast.

All Images Courtesy of Weatherbell:
1AM Saturday:
Image

7AM Saturday:
Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#9478 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:58 pm

asd123 wrote:Why do you think the bust is happening?
Also, I've heard about these busts (higher than forecast) for lows a lot of times in the immediate forecasts before. I have never heard of busts happening where the lows end up colder than forecasted (underbust highs I've heard plenty of times).

I've always thought the NWS goes on the cold side of a reasonable range in a cold event so as not to get called out and hammered for underforecasting cold and the resultant economic damages that could result. Right now ag rich eastern Hillsborough county is under a hard freeze warning. What if a hard freeze were to occur over the strawberry fields and it was not forecast? The NWS would take it on the chin. What if it only gets to 29 or 30 over the fields when a hard freeze warning was out? everyone will speak of getting lucky...no one will blast the NWS for a busted forecast. seems like an easy call.
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#9479 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:03 pm

it's 9pm and I feel cautiously optimistic. Dewpoints in inland areas like Lakeland have rebounded nicely.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9480 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:16 pm

I have a bad feeling this will bust (warmer). But like psyclone said about the NWS, it's better to be safe than sorry, especially when dealing with Florida's agriculture.
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