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NDG
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Re: Florida Weather

#9481 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:22 pm

psyclone wrote:
asd123 wrote:Why do you think the bust is happening?
Also, I've heard about these busts (higher than forecast) for lows a lot of times in the immediate forecasts before. I have never heard of busts happening where the lows end up colder than forecasted (underbust highs I've heard plenty of times).

I've always thought the NWS goes on the cold side of a reasonable range in a cold event so as not to get called out and hammered for underforecasting cold and the resultant economic damages that could result. Right now ag rich eastern Hillsborough county is under a hard freeze warning. What if a hard freeze were to occur over the strawberry fields and it was not forecast? The NWS would take it on the chin. What if it only gets to 29 or 30 over the fields when a hard freeze warning was out? everyone will speak of getting lucky...no one will blast the NWS for a busted forecast. seems like an easy call.


Yeah, I have always noticed that our local NWS offices here in FL have always gone with the coldest possible side of the forecasts to be on the safe side, is always good to over prepare than not to prepare.
In this case the MOS guidance is even colder than what the official forecast is calling for, not sure why the discrepancies with the MOS guidance, maybe on the short term climatology is not fed into the guidance as much as their long range forecast is fed, is my guess.
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#9482 Postby gatorcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:23 pm

NWS Tampa released a good discussion:


000
FXUS62 KTBW 200109
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

.UPDATE...
VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET. THAT SAID...THEY DON`T
RISE MUCH BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAYBE 2 OR 3
DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SINCE WE CERTAINLY WILL NOT MIX TO 925 OVERNIGHT. RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS...ARE NOT AS
COLD AS MOS GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE WILL DO BETTER IN TRUE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT WHILE RAW MODEL OUTPUT WILL OFTEN
BE BETTER WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MIXED.

LETS GET ONE THING OUT OF THE WAY NOW. THE PATCH OF RATHER DENSE
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL NOT IMPACT OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE BACK EDGE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA
BY 9 PM OR SO...WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING TO THE REGION.


THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE
WARMER GULF AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

DEW POINTS ARE GOING TO PLUMMET ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT. EXPECT TO
SEE DEW POINTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE...EVEN
LOWER OVER THE NATURE COAST
.

LOW TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM FROM US LAST NIGHT WERE IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR VERY LOW TEMPERATURES IS THE WIND.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...OVER KENTUCKY.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WITH A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. BUT IN THIS CASE...
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE BEGINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EARLY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR
DRAINAGE TAKES OVER.


TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...LOW AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WHILE URBAN AREAS AND RIDGES MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING...
INLAND LOW AREAS COULD EASILY FALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE 20S. OUR
BIGGEST CONCERN IS OVER THE NATURE COAST WHERE WINDS COULD GO CALM
FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS.

THIS ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR A VERY COLD MORNING AROUND
ARCHBOLD IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PARTS
OF SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY DOWN TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OR SO...BUT
THIS WOULD ONLY BE OVER A VERY SMALL AREA OF THE COUNTY.

SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...BUT I HAVE NOT
TOUCHED OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT ALL. OUR 8 PM FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ZONES
WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE HEADLINES OF EXPIRED ADVISORIES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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#9483 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:34 pm

that is a great discussion...there's a very steep dewpoint gradient between Ocala and Brooksville (12 vs 26) so their statement makes sense...
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#9484 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:52 pm

Wow, looking at wundermap areas in north FL where winds are dead calm in rural areas temps are already down to the mid to upper 20s.
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#9485 Postby NDG » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:19 pm

10 PM temps are still running 3-5 degrees warmer than forecasted where winds are staying up so far.
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#9486 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:39 pm

Yeah, the wind is still calm here and has been for the past couple of hours. Temperature currently at 29.4 degrees. Temps are now on a slow fall for the rest of the night. Low 20s look like a good bet here by sunrise if the wind stays calm to light.

As for the rest of the state, I see the current obs and both Gainesville and Ocala are at 30 degrees. Wind is calm here as my area is a bit closer to the Arctic High dome which centered just to our northwest over Alabama. There may be just enough of a wind to mix the air up in some areas down the peninsula to spare freezing temps, especially the south central peninsula areas. We will know first thing in the morning. Stay warm everyone as I am off to bed. Will get up early in the morning to see how cold the mercury dropped across the region.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9487 Postby FireRat » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:48 pm

42 degrees here with 27 dew point currently as of 10:50 pm, still dropping fast! Might be in the upper 30s soon after midnight here!
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#9488 Postby gatorcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

widespread upper 30s now across interior Central Florida. The winds across West-Central Florida are slowly veering to the north and lightening up some just like models such as the ECMWF predicted. What happens after they veer completely (after midnight) will be key for the metro areas. That is when temps should plummet.
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#9489 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:58 pm

Oh, good banter on the thread tonight withthis cold spell. Good to see the gang on here tonight.
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#9490 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:01 pm

Well it looks like the blind squirrel might have finally found it's nut! :lol:
:cold:
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#9491 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:05 pm

no matter how cold it gets it would have been much worse had this event taken place earlier in the winter. these temps are amazing considering March is just over a week away.
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#9492 Postby gatorcane » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:07 pm

psyclone, I noticed the KPIE temp has actually risen 1F to 44F the past hour and really hasn't dropped at all the past several hours. Looks like mixing is certainly keeping the temps in check there so far with a N wind at 12.
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#9493 Postby psyclone » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:10 pm

interesting to note that Brooksville actually rose a degree in their 11 pm ob despite their dewpoint tanking 5 degrees during the same hour. I remain cautiously optimistic at this point. Each hour above freezing is less potential damage. Tampa is still 41 and St Pete Clearwater is 44. That's quite a bit of wiggle room.
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#9494 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:10 pm

Gatorcane, the Arctic High is centered currently across Alabama. That will deliver a mostly due north flow directly down the spine of the peninsula, and if the wind goes light down there, temps cculd reach freezing in those interior areas surrounding Lake Okeechobee and in areas like Sebring, west to Punta Gorda. It is interesting observing the conditions and observations this evening.

I think areas like Leesburg, Mount Dora, , Winter Haven and Plant City and Lakeland will get to near the freeze mark tomorrow morning. Brooksville is already near 30 degrees and will probably see mid 20s by sunrise.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9495 Postby asd123 » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:11 pm

This 00z GFS and 00z NAM is totally neglecting the already bitter cold temps in north fla:

00z GFS:
Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Image

00z NAM:
Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Image

Wundermap:
Image Courtesy of Wunderground
Image

Sample point and click in North Florida:
Image Courtesy of NWS NOAA
Image

Looks like NWS will win for northern Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9496 Postby Sanibel » Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:21 am

This is a serious cold airmass since Tampa is at the same temperature as Ft Myers.

In the last 2 hours Ft Myers went from 44* to 41*. We stayed steady at 44* showing the GOM benefit.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9497 Postby FireRat » Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:40 am

38.6 degrees here in western Broward Co. along with 32 degree wind chill and dewpoint of 31. Safe to say it's freezing cold tonight, since it feels that way already! Looking at the current temps, we got a pocket of upper 30s in the northwestern suburbs of Fort Lauderdale, with places like northern Weston and far western Sunrise & Plantation in the 38-39 range now! All other locations southeast and east of here are in the low to mid 40s. Certainly may fall a few degrees over the next 5 hours.

This is offically the coldest night of the winter for my locale, amazing how we're colder than parts of Tampa, due to that GOM effect.
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#9498 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:58 am

Still have about a couple of more hours for temps to drop before sunriase, but checking the 5a.m. Obs, it looks as iof the low-mid 20s will be the low temps across North Florida. Just checked my thermometer and we are at 25.3 degrees at this hour. It is also 25 degrees out at Jax Cecil Commerce area on the wqestern end of Duval County. As expected the coldest reading in the state is that cold drainage icebox out in Crestview in the panhandle, currently at 20 degrees. They will see upper teens there. Tallahassee is currently at 25 degrees.

Across Central Florida, there are a few spots that have hit the freezing mark looking at the 5:00 obs. Leesburg is currently 32 degrees, Lakeland is at 32 degrees and Tampa Executive is at 32. A feqw other spots are just above freezing, and with a couple of more hours left, may stll get to the freeze mark. Orlando International Airport is currently 34 degrees, Daytona International Airport 33 degrees, Punta Gorda 33 and Winter Haven 34 currently.

Brooksville is currently 26 degrees. Areas near the Space Coast are approaching freezing. Melbourne is currently 35 degrees, Fort Pierce 34 degrees and Vero Beach 33 degrees. Down across South Florida, interior areas of Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties are in the upper 30s. Homestead is at 38 degrees currently. NWS office in Miami reporting 42 degrees. Chilly morning down there.

A couple of more hours for temps to drop. I expect to see those areas just above the freeze mark over Central Florida to probably touch that mark. NDG, as we talked about last night, MOS overall will end up being aboiut 3-5 degrees colder than what it will end up being across the peninsula, except for a few spots across the panhandle where ypper teens will be realized.. But, nonetheless, it is a remakably cold morning across the peninsula.

Jax has already shattered the record low for this date, which was 28 degrees.
One more very cold day as that modifying Arctic High will move closer to the MidAtlantic region and should reach the Noth Carolina coast tonight. Max temps today here in Jax will be a bit warmer than yesterday and wuith some luck, we may hit 50 degrees. The return flow will start to take place tonight as the flow will become easterly and start to bring in moisture from the Atlantic. Only interior areas of North Florida will see a light freeze on Saturday morning. Due to onshire floiw, Jax area should escape freezing temps for Saturday morning with lows mid-upper 30s.

Return flow really sets in Saturday into Sunday as the Polar High moves off to the noirtheast, bringing the winds around to the south and eventuaky south-southwest On Sunday. Max temps wull be back well intoi the 70s everywhere by Sunday. Daytona 500 looks great with temps in the upper 70s expected there on Sunday afternoon. You gotta love that after this brief arctic intrusion for sure. Enjoy it!

I will get into next week a but later, but a quick look at the models show wet and cool weather pattern returning to at least North Florida beginning Tueasday. That will be a bummer. I'll worry about that later.
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Re: Florida Weather

#9499 Postby NDG » Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:48 am

Good morning, so far I hit 30 degrees in my neighborhood, now up to 31 degrees, I live in sw Seminole County. My temp hit freezing around 3 AM.
Very cold indeed for this time of the of the year, I keep thinking what if the NAO would had been negative and the center of the Arctic High would had drove down straight to FL, we would had probably seen sub-freezing temps 3 nights straight across most of central FL..
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#9500 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:02 am

:uarrow: Yes, NDG, you are absolutely right about that. 30 degrees quite impressive down there at your locale this morning. First freeze of this winter finally occuring down into the I-4 corridor for some. Still were a few spots sitting a degree or two above the freeze mark, but I will check the new hourly obs which are just now coming in.

Temp here at my locale is 23.3 degrees. That is the lowest temp at the moment. That makes it the coldest reading I have had here this winter, eclipsing the 24.4 degree reading I measured here back on November 20. Still may drop another degree or so before the sun gets up to warm us slowly into the upper 40s for max temps today.


EDIT: Winter Haven did reach freezing mark at 32 degrees this morning. Vero Beach ob came in at 30 degrees also. Daytona is at 31 degrees and Titusville 30 degrees.
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