Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

3z SREF has trended wetter and snowier for DFW

[Tejas89]

WSW was just expanded to include western counties of the metroplex. FWD still confident in 2-4". Locally higher, hence the WSW.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV still shows just rain for me. If we indeed see multiple inches of snow within 24 hours that is a pretty big bust on there part. I would not bet against an upper low so I lean toward the NAM.

[TrekkerCC]

NWS Ft. Worth Office has issued a brief discussion about the upcoming event. A more detailed discussion is forthcoming. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it seems that we will get snow. The problem is that the forecasters are still grappling with how much snow will be coming.

SYNOPSIS...

REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH WEST ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES SO THAT THE WATCH NOW INCLUDES LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO DECATUR TO GLEN ROSE TO CANTON LINE
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE. MOST SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE WATCH AREA FROM
3 AM TO NOON. ALTHOUGH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS TECHNICALLY BELOW
WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...SO LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT AS
SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THESE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE
PLACEMENT OF ANY BANDED SNOWFALL/HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME...WHICH IS WHY A WINTER STORM WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...WE WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF WHETHER ANY PART OF THE
WATCH NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR NOT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
ENTIRE AREA MAY BE COVERED BY AN ADVISORY...BUT THE MORNING
WEATHER BALLOON DATA COMBINED WITH THE 12Z MODEL DATA WILL GO A
LONG WAY IN ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THAT DECISION.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY FALL INTO THE 29-32
DEGREE RANGE WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. SNOW MELT SHOULD OCCUR FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL
ADDRESS THAT WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING

CAVANAUGH

[gpsnowman]

Goodness, what a week! Can we make three days in a row with no school for the kids? And still a chance for snow on Friday as well. A winter season in one week!

[PineyWoods]

"Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
436 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-250000-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0003.150225T0600Z-150226T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL
436 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY
SNOW. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD TOTAL 3 TO 4 INCHES. FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...THE WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACT...IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ELEVATED AND EXPOSED
SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. IF THE SNOW COMES
DOWN QUICKLY ENOUGH...THEN SURFACE STREETS COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS."

Could be interesting tonight and tomorrow here in Tyler

[wxman57]

Picture posted by NWS from Huntsville is def snow.

Not saying it is or isn't snowing in Huntsville. But, like I posted earlier today, I don't always think the upper air temp profiles are accurate. In that earlier post, I told how several years ago it was snowing huge flakes at my house in Tomball. I was on the phone at the time with a friend of mine who is a meteorologist and telling him it was snowing. He said that it couldn't be because the upper air sounding showed it was too warm to support snow. I told him, I didn't need confirmation from any upper air analysis because I was out in it, and told him to come over to see for himself. He called me on the way over to tell me that it was indeed snowing. Classic example of looking at a model output instead of looking outside the window

I believe I've determined what that precip was. It wasn't true snow, which forms higher up in the atmosphere. The pictures/video appear to be what is called snow grains. Snow grains differs from snow in that it can form in stratus clouds not far above the surface (where it's below freezing in Huntsville). The crystals are small and elongated, less than 1mm in size. Not true snowflakes and not sleet, just tiny ice crystals.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV has me under a winter storm watch but only shows rain in the forecast. The next forecast update will be a major shift I imagine.

[high_lander]

Balmy 26 here in 380/Paloma Creek this morning.

[iorange55]

Time to work hard today, so I can (hopefully) play in the snow tomorrow. Still looks like a nice snowfall for our area! If we can get several inches, I'd imagine it would be a little harder to melt in just one afternoon, especially if the temps only climb to the mid-30s.

[Tcu101]

Goodness, what a week! Can we make three days in a row with no school for the kids? And still a chance for snow on Friday as well. A winter season in one week!

No kidding! Talk about 2 out, bottom of 9th inning, down by two with 2 men on base end to the winter

[orangeblood]

For all of you weather enthusiasts that care about all of the upper level dynamics that go along with forecasting/modeling, King Cavanaugh lays it all out there with his forecast discussion this morning. Excellent write up explaining the complexities of this forecast/why they are leaning towards the NAMs solution

Of note, explains the dynamic of how important a positively vs neutrally tilted trough are with systems such as these. Biggest difference being one brings more lower level moisture in vs the other. DFWs biggest snowfall in history was from a neutrally tilted trough.

[TexasF6]

ACCIDENTS PILING UP IN AUSTIN....NW AUSTIN. ...ROUND ROCK....WILLIAMSON COUNTY per kxan

[Tcu101]

I think they have done a fantastic job this winter on forecasting some difficult weather this winter. Hats to the NWS Fort Worth !!

[Snowman67]

Picture posted by NWS from Huntsville is def snow.

Not saying it is or isn't snowing in Huntsville. But, like I posted earlier today, I don't always think the upper air temp profiles are accurate. In that earlier post, I told how several years ago it was snowing huge flakes at my house in Tomball. I was on the phone at the time with a friend of mine who is a meteorologist and telling him it was snowing. He said that it couldn't be because the upper air sounding showed it was too warm to support snow. I told him, I didn't need confirmation from any upper air analysis because I was out in it, and told him to come over to see for himself. He called me on the way over to tell me that it was indeed snowing. Classic example of looking at a model output instead of looking outside the window

I believe I've determined what that precip was. It wasn't true snow, which forms higher up in the atmosphere. The pictures/video appear to be what is called snow grains. Snow grains differs from snow in that it can form in stratus clouds not far above the surface (where it's below freezing in Huntsville). The crystals are small and elongated, less than 1mm in size. Not true snowflakes and not sleet, just tiny ice crystals.

That may be so, however what was falling here several years ago were giant snowflakes.

[wxman57]

I believe I've determined what that precip was. It wasn't true snow, which forms higher up in the atmosphere. The pictures/video appear to be what is called snow grains. Snow grains differs from snow in that it can form in stratus clouds not far above the surface (where it's below freezing in Huntsville). The crystals are small and elongated, less than 1mm in size. Not true snowflakes and not sleet, just tiny ice crystals.

That may be so, however what was falling here several years ago were giant snowflakes.

What does that have to do with yesterday's precipitation? We were discussing what was observed near Huntsville yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Looking over guidance and WPC discussion the probability of seeing snow tomorrow across N and NE Texas seems quite high (>1" greater than 50%). The question is how much, it's a bust or get nailed type thing. Someone will bust and nearby get dumped on it's the nature of these things. So far the models have gone towards the UKMET and NAM. I'd put 2-5" from an area from Stephenville to DFW up to Texarkana.

Anyway the ENS extends snow back to Abilene as well so it's a good sign the storm may have more moisture than expected and cranks if that plays out.

[wxman57]

Just took a look at the 00Z Euro temperature forecast for Texas next week and I must say I was quite surprised (in a good way). The EC is going with highs across SE Texas between 75-80 degrees from Sunday through at least next Thursday (240hrs out). The GFS is also trending warmer, though it does have a cold front moving through next Thursday. The Euro has the front still in the Panhandle on Thursday.

[orangeblood]

Looking over guidance and WPC discussion the probability of seeing snow tomorrow across N and NE Texas seems quite high (>1" greater than 50%). The question is how much, it's a bust or get nailed type thing. Someone will bust and nearby get dumped on it's the nature of these things. So far the models have gone towards the UKMET and NAM. I'd put 2-5" from an area from Stephenville to DFW up to Texarkana.

Anyway the ENS extends snow back to Abilene as well so it's a good sign the storm may have more moisture than expected and cranks if that plays out.

One interesting trend has been for models (outside of the NAM, whose actually gone slightly north) to trend south. But as Cavanaugh mentioned, these global models might not be picking up on the small SW's rotating around the base of the main trough, which have big implications for where the axis of heavy snow sets up

[Ntxw]

Looking over guidance and WPC discussion the probability of seeing snow tomorrow across N and NE Texas seems quite high (>1" greater than 50%). The question is how much, it's a bust or get nailed type thing. Someone will bust and nearby get dumped on it's the nature of these things. So far the models have gone towards the UKMET and NAM. I'd put 2-5" from an area from Stephenville to DFW up to Texarkana.

Anyway the ENS extends snow back to Abilene as well so it's a good sign the storm may have more moisture than expected and cranks if that plays out.

One interesting trend has been for models (outside of the NAM, whose actually gone slightly north) to trend south. But as Cavanaugh mentioned, these global models might not be picking up on the small SW's rotating around the base of the main trough, which have big implications for where the axis of heavy snow sets up

Yeah a lot depends on the movement of the ULL and the point where it goes neutral to negative tilt as height falls. Models say that occurs along I-35 and the streaks of precip congeals into a trowal. Underneath that trowal bread and milk emptying shelves. In the words of the heat miser "Oh the humanity!" .

Look for precip to break out into West Texas late tonight, we'll have a good idea.