Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

[Kludge]

Picture posted by NWS from Huntsville is def snow.

Not saying it is or isn't snowing in Huntsville. But, like I posted earlier today, I don't always think the upper air temp profiles are accurate. In that earlier post, I told how several years ago it was snowing huge flakes at my house in Tomball. I was on the phone at the time with a friend of mine who is a meteorologist and telling him it was snowing. He said that it couldn't be because the upper air sounding showed it was too warm to support snow. I told him, I didn't need confirmation from any upper air analysis because I was out in it, and told him to come over to see for himself. He called me on the way over to tell me that it was indeed snowing. Classic example of looking at a model output instead of looking outside the window

I believe I've determined what that precip was. It wasn't true snow, which forms higher up in the atmosphere. The pictures/video appear to be what is called snow grains. Snow grains differs from snow in that it can form in stratus clouds not far above the surface (where it's below freezing in Huntsville). The crystals are small and elongated, less than 1mm in size. Not true snowflakes and not sleet, just tiny ice crystals.

Ok, then in the future let's all be TOTALLY CLEAR when posting p-type. Last night IT DID NOT SNOW FLAKE here, it SNOW GRAINED.

I will be more careful in the future. Moderator, please don't ban me.

[Tireman4]

Gosh dang it Kludge, get it right. I swear, we all need to go to Met school. All of us. Sigh....LOL

[iorange55]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

Don't tease me, Ntxw.

[Ntxw]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

Don't tease me, Ntxw.

Oh no, I'm not saying we're going to see a foot. But it's funny how it snuck up on us. Had virtually nothing over the weekend.

[ndale]

EWX is showing a possibility of snow as close to me tonight as Georgetown (about 8-10 miles to my north) but for me and the rest of the Austin area just cold rain.

[iorange55]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

Don't tease me, Ntxw.

Oh no, I'm not saying we're going to see a foot. But it's funny how it snuck up on us. Had virtually nothing over the weekend.

Haha, I'm just giving you a hard time. A foot of snow in Dallas is not something you see more than once. But I agree, and just like with the 2010 storm, snowfall amounts could surprise a lot of people tomorrow.

Maybe not 12 inches, but there could be some amounts 5+ amounts out there. That would be pretty impressive.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Main upper level storm to cross TX tonight/Wednesday.

Freezing line at 700am this morning extended from Columbus to Waller to Conroe to Cleveland with Tomball and IAH at 33. Light freezing drizzle has been observed overnight/this morning at both College Station and Huntsville and both the wind sensors at Caldwell and Crockett are calm suggesting ice has accumulated on some elevated surfaces. TXDOT roadway temperatures are running 34-36 degrees on elevated bridges which has saved much of the area from any ice formation on those surfaces…appears the warm weather on Sunday helped with that aspect even for locations which have now been below freezing for many hours. Light drizzle and mist should end this morning and temperatures will gradually rise above freezing across the entire area by 900-1000am. Saturated layer below 800mb will keep low level stratus clouds locked in place all day along with haze and fog.

Main upper trough approaches and moves across N TX tonight. Warm layer sampled in the CLL special sounding launch yesterday evening will begin to cool overnight especially in the College Station to Huntsville corridor as the cold pocket aloft moves over N TX. Forecast models are fairly impressive in their development of banded heavy snowfall over N TX tonight with just enough instability to likely generate a few lightning strikes. Could see periods of heavy snow is mesoscale bands over N and NE TX tonight/Wednesday morning with accumulations of 2-5 inches.

Over SE TX the sounding profile looks too warm to support sleet or snow and the surface temperature will be at or above freezing for all of the area overnight with no threat of freezing rain. While the profile does not support snow production from a high altitude, as was seen yesterday evening in Huntsville snow can be generated in the sub freezing layer just above the surface. Still think that any snow potential for tonight is very low across the region.

Lift will increase tonight and expect light ran and drizzle to develop across the region again and last into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will once again be on the light side averaging less than .25 of an inch. Highs today will struggle to reach the 40’s and likely remain in the 40’s on Wednesday.

Slight warming onsets Thursday with highs breaking 50 before another strong cold front surges across the region Thursday night. Colder again on Friday with highs in the 40’s.

Next upper level storm system begins to dig into the SW US over the weekend with returning southerly winds overrunning the surface cold dome. Current model guidance has backed down on the rain chances over the weekend and generally warm surface temperatures toward 70 by Sunday as warm air advection becomes established.

[orangeblood]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

Sure does, synoptically looks a lot like the Feb 23rd, 2010 system just further north. Different setup for the Feb 10-11th 2010 record breaking event with split streams as opposed to both phased this time around.

[Snowman67]

I believe I've determined what that precip was. It wasn't true snow, which forms higher up in the atmosphere. The pictures/video appear to be what is called snow grains. Snow grains differs from snow in that it can form in stratus clouds not far above the surface (where it's below freezing in Huntsville). The crystals are small and elongated, less than 1mm in size. Not true snowflakes and not sleet, just tiny ice crystals.

That may be so, however what was falling here several years ago were giant snowflakes.

What does that have to do with yesterday's precipitation? We were discussing what was observed near Huntsville yesterday.

Uh - You quoted the post I made in response to the discussion last evening regarding the reported snow in Huntsville. My response was directly related to that post. So I would say it had everything to do with it. I shared an experience that I had where it snowed when the soundings did not support it.

[Wntrwthrguy]

EWX is showing a possibility of snow as close to me tonight as Georgetown (about 8-10 miles to my north) but for me and the rest of the Austin area just cold rain.

They have it in my forecast for Hutto, TX as a rain/snow mix. Not getting my hopes up though as we all know it never snows in or around Austin. You north Texas folks have fun!

[ndale]

EWX is showing a possibility of snow as close to me tonight as Georgetown (about 8-10 miles to my north) but for me and the rest of the Austin area just cold rain.

They have it in my forecast for Hutto, TX as a rain/snow mix. Not getting my hopes up though as we all know it never snows in or around Austin. You north Texas folks have fun!

Now you understand why Portastorm and the rest of us in the Austin area get so frustrated, it is always just out of our reach or predicted and never materializes.

[Brent]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

I haven't seen over 4" of snow since I've been old enough to enjoy snow....

This is my first snowstorm in Texas and I feel like I'm in a great spot here in Collin County....

[wxman57]

What does that have to do with yesterday's precipitation? We were discussing what was observed near Huntsville yesterday.

Uh - You quoted the post I made in response to the discussion last evening regarding the reported snow in Huntsville. My response was directly related to that post. So I would say it had everything to do with it. I shared an experience that I had where it snowed when the soundings did not support it.

But the thread discussion was of yesterday's precipitation, even though you mentioned snow from 2 years ago. My main point is that I do not think that the vertical temperature profiles from the models were wrong. In fact, they were proven right by the A&M sounding. One cannot conclude that because "snow" was observed that the models were wrong. Snow grains can form in a much shallower cold air layer with a warm nose above, as was the case yesterday in Huntsville. In some cases, the grains will clump together and appear to be larger snowflakes, which need a much deeper layer of cold air. The precip was a type of snow, but its presence didn't mean that the models were wrong and/or that you cannot trust the models.

[orangeblood]

From the new NAM it would be a significant event, cold aloft with surface temps between 31-34. Kind of has the feeling for Feb 2010 doesn't it?

I haven't seen over 4" of snow since I've been old enough to enjoy snow....

This is my first snowstorm in Texas and I feel like I'm in a great spot here in Collin County....

Collin County is in a good spot according to the NAM, although pay attention to the other model runs today as they have trended south of you....

[dhweather]

Just read Cavanaugh's AFD - it is weather stuff.

[dhweather]

Tonight's system looks to be one that will break someone's heart. The storm track 50-100 miles to the north our south of the forecast will make a big difference in what you may see.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maybe I saw wrong but it looks like the 12 UTC NAM has lost the majority of the snow in the metroplex. Looks to only be around an inch now.

[dhweather]

Looks like we will have a 4-6 hour window for snow, the system is moving pretty quickly. As noted in the FWD AFD, if it is negatively tiled and taps into gulf moisture, things could get really interesting.

[orangeblood]

Maybe I saw wrong but it looks like the 12 UTC NAM has lost the majority of the snow in the metroplex. Looks to only be around an inch now.

No, its still there....actually has the trowel setting up right through Dallas...4-5 inch amounts