Texas Winter 2014-2015

[iorange55]

From Steve McCauley's FB page, posted just a few minutes ago:

"I am running the SM on the winter storm coming in tonight. It is having what we call back home, " a big ol' fit." Some of the data suggest much of north Texas gets buried under a heavy wet blanket of snow (over a foot in some places) in the next 18 hours, and some of the data suggest we get ZERO snow.

It could happen...

[Brent]

I don't see temperatures being an issue... it's barely above freezing as it is. 33 here... Seen it snow heavily and accumulate at warmer temps before

NWS has my low at 28-29

[wxman57]

And now for something completely different...

Noting how different the 00Z European model was for Texas temps through next week, I plotted a meteogram with the ECMWF temps added in (red dashed line). Note that the Euro is colder for Texas THIS week, particularly on Friday morning (31F vs. 35F for the GFS). The two models begin to diverge on Saturday, come into good agreement for next Monday/Tuesday, then diverge.

The GFS moves another strong cold front through Texas next Wednesday, while the Euro holds off the cold air until Friday afternoon. It doesn't show up on the graphic as it's beyond the 240hr point. While I'd love to believe the ECMWF, I suspect that the two models will eventually converge on a solution in between Wednesday and Friday of next week. Note the precip in the cold air according to the GFS...

Is that what I think that is for the last graphic sir?

You mean the end of that GFS plot showing temps in the low-mid 30s & precip?

[SouthernMet]

Jealous of the heavy snow for north texas...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

The end of that run sure does look beautiful...

I wish I could believe this but it kind of overdid precip yesterday as I recall

Not for north texas, Brent.

[Texas Snowman]

My take on all of this right now is that:

1. It looks like snow will occur in much of North and NE Texas overnight.
2. Exact track of low is still to be determined and may not be known until later tonight as radar begins to light up and fill in.
3. Bust/boom potential is there for many.
4. Best guess at the moment is that the area between I-30 and I-20 from Dallas to the Texas/Louisiana border will win big.
5. Somebody may win the lottery and get 4-6" of snow.
6. All of the above is subject to change.
7. Kids, make sure your homework is done. And placed next to your sleds.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps are warming up now fwiw.

Not yet here, still holding strong at 32 which very well could be our high. That is a big difference from the low 40s the 18Z NAM and GFS and 15Z SREF had us at. The RAP and HRRR even had us in the mid 30s. The 18Z RGEM did sniff out that we would stay in the low 30s in NE TX. Model QPF for tomorrow ranges from 0.25-1"+ for NE TX. Temps in the low 30s with the whole column below freezing plus over .5"+ QPF equals 2010esque totals (10"+ in localized spots).

[Texas Snowman]

Temps are warming up now fwiw.

Not yet here, still holding strong at 32 which very well could be our high. That is a big difference from the low 40s the 18Z NAM and GFS and 15Z SREF had us at. The RAP and HRRR even had us in the mid 30s. The 18Z RGEM did sniff out that we would stay in the low 30s in NE TX. Model QPF for tomorrow ranges from 0.25-1"+ for NE TX. Temps in the low 30s with the whole column below freezing plus over .5"+ QPF equals 2010esque totals (10"+ in localized spots).

Still cloudy and 33 here in Denison.

[Brent]

Not for north texas, Brent.

Hey I want to believe... maybe it'll be right

[gpsnowman]

What, if anything, could slow the storm down as it crosses the state? Been reading that the storm will be a quick mover.

[Brandon8181]

Just a quick note, our forecasted high temperature for Flint TX (TYLER TX) was 38, then raised to 41, then lowered to 36. Its after 4 p.m. and we haven't gotten over 32 at this point..... Ralph's Weather I see you have the same issue...

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, north of the Red River, Norman NWS opines a bit about the late week storm and begins to mention what could happen next week (as Wxman 57 alluded to earlier):

000
FXUS64 KOUN 242047
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
BECOMES A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW... UP TO AROUND AN INCH... IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NEAR THE RED RIVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONT TO BACK OFF ON ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR THAT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT MEANS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE SNOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THERE
ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON IF... WHERE... AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO PRECIPITATION COULD BE WINTRY
EARLY ON IN THE WEEKEND BUT GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE
TEMPERATURES WARM. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK AS DEEP AS THE ONE LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MEANS THAT THERE WOULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME FREEZING RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL TRENDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS ARE A BIT WARMER
WITH THIS AIRMASS WHICH IS GOOD NEWS SINCE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE
CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE MODELS AND A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SINCE THAT IS STILL
ABOUT A WEEK AWAY SO WILL SEE IF THE WARMER TREND CONTINUES OR IF
WE HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER.

&&

[Brent]

[SouthernMet]

Not for north texas, Brent.

Hey I want to believe... maybe it'll be right

Short term guidance has precip shield developing by 8-9pm, we'll get a better idea by then.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

18Z GFS looks a lot more similar to the NAM (further north) with the axis of precipitation.

[Brent]

I don't get this...

this is my point click forecast that updated

Tonight Rain and snow after midnight. Low around 29. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday Rain and snow before noon. High near 43. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

[Tcu101]

From Steve McCauley's FB page, posted just a few minutes ago:

"I am running the SM on the winter storm coming in tonight. It is having what we call back home, " a big ol' fit." Some of the data suggest much of north Texas gets buried under a heavy wet blanket of snow (over a foot in some places) in the next 18 hours, and some of the data suggest we get ZERO snow.

Part of the problem is we won't be all that cold when the system moves through. Remember, temperatures will only be at or even slightly ABOVE freezing when this storm moves in. So there are some models that suggest it will be mainly rain.

I, and I believe MOST meteorologists, do not believe that will happen. Some of our biggest snows occur when temperatures are slightly above freezing. I am in hopes the SM will spit out something reasonably accurate for its snowfall prediction, and I will post as soon as I can."

Well that seemed to be kind of hyped up.

Not really his style to hype things up. I think he is just expressing the facts that the models have no consensus

[Brent]

Again I don't understand why FWD expects it to rain with these temps...

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY RAIN...A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER DAYBREAK...EXITING THE
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
1/2 INCH WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH LESSER BUT POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH. THE AXIS OF GREATEST
SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS...
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

[Tcu101]

Again I don't understand why FWD expects it to rain with these temps...

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY RAIN...A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER DAYBREAK...EXITING THE
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
1/2 INCH WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH LESSER BUT POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH. THE AXIS OF GREATEST
SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS...
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

Agree... Temps now are mid to low 30's with dewpoints in the mid 20's. If it does start as rain the air should cool rather rapidly

[Brent]

Again I don't understand why FWD expects it to rain with these temps...

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY RAIN...A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AFTER DAYBREAK...EXITING THE
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
1/2 INCH WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH LESSER BUT POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH. THE AXIS OF GREATEST
SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS...
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

Agree... Temps now are mid to low 30's with dewpoints in the mid 20's. If it does start as rain the air should cool rather rapidly

Seems like the precip comes in earlier too... it should already be sub-freezing by then easy...

[Cuda17]

Kind of looks like the low is digging South at this time. I don't know, it's kind of hard to tell.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SWR/COMP/&NUMBLOOP=10