Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Re:

#6041 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:28 pm

TarrantWx wrote:
Brent wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:Airport weather warning just issued for DFW acknowledges potential for 4-5 inches if the moderate/heavy band moves over the airport. It also acknowledges the potential for 0.50"/hr liquid equivalent rates which would be fairly staggering snow rates. Seems like they might need to issue a warning as soon as they're sure where the heaviest band will set up.

This really has the feel of something significant for DFW. Good luck to you guys down in Austin. I hope you can get in on the action also!


Link please?


http://kamala.cod.edu/tx/latest.wwus84.KFWD.html

067
WWUS84 KFWD 250150
AWWDFW
TXZ118-119-250800-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION


ONSET/END TIMES

2-3 AM THROUGH 9-10 AM

ACCUMULATIONS/PRECIP TYPE/TIMING

RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING 2-3 AM. THE MIX WILL TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AROUND 5-7 AM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY 10 AM.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL BE A TRACE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL
BE 1-3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 4-5 INCHES IF A BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT.

TIME/S/ TEMPERATURE FALLS BELOW /RISES ABOVE/ FREEZING

WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT TO BE 30-31
DEGREES FROM 5 AM THROUGH 9 AM.

PRECIP RATES GTE ONE HALF INCH AN HOUR ONSET/DURATION

LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF GTE 1/2 INCH MAY OCCUR IN BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF ONE AFFECTS THE AIRPORT...BETWEEN
6-10 AM.

OTHER THREATS/REMARKS

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
NOON.


Thanks.
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Ntxw
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Re:

#6042 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:28 pm

opticsguy wrote:01Z RAP now has .45" sleet for DFW and no snow. New sounding data in the initialization?


I don't think it will be sleet at least not a lot of it. Those generally don't occur in deformation bands, lots of dynamics involved it will be very cold aloft.
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#6043 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:29 pm

I'm pulling for you Porta!!!
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#6044 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:29 pm

Now that we have seen where the precip is forming, does Austin have a better or worse chance than earlier today of seeing some snow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6045 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:33 pm

I don't think our atmospheric profile looks good for snow but I don't have that info on hand so maybe someone else can take a look.
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Re:

#6046 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:34 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:I'm pulling for you Porta!!!


Thanks. Ideally we'd all get in on the action. Just hope you North Texans post pictures tomorrow of your snowfall ... and kick that football out of Lucy's hands!
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#6047 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:35 pm

Don't lose the faith - Friday is coming!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6048 Postby Tammie » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:35 pm

30 in Denton already. Huge temp bust here today...again...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6049 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:38 pm

I think I just died.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6050 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:39 pm

JDawg512 wrote:I don't think our atmospheric profile looks good for snow but I don't have that info on hand so maybe someone else can take a look.


By 6am tomorrow morning Austin's profile (with wet bulbing) will be sufficient or very close for snow or snow grains if there is moisture around according to RAP soundings.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6051 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:42 pm

Brent wrote:I think I just died.

Image


WOWZA! That would BURY Grayson County!!! :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6052 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:42 pm

Howdy folks, anybody remember this little gem? :D

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6053 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:43 pm

I believe in you Porta! Our fearless leader, we will have our SNOW!!!!!!!!! :froze: :froze: :froze: :cold: :flag:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6054 Postby texas1836 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:44 pm

Brent wrote:I think I just died.

Image


I Like it!!!!
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#6055 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:45 pm

Man the radar out west is not being shy.
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#6056 Postby texas1836 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:46 pm

I like it better that it's 30' at the DWC in McKinney.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6057 Postby hriverajr » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:51 pm

The low appears to have enlongated with two separate vorticity centers, one entering the panhandle and moving southeast, the second approaching El Paso from the Northwest as well. The southern vort center seems to be stronger. Next couple of hours will determine if and where a new primary center forms. Not looking at models but just at current data, not sure if it would obtain a negative tilt. Seems to be maintaining the same orientation. I think this may get a little farther south than models are indicating. Root for Portastorm hehe.. Of course next couple of hours things could totally change.
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#6058 Postby ndale » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:54 pm

EWX has pushed the rain/snow line a little further south to Round Rock, almost reached me. For Friday they are reluctant to mention snow saying freezing rain instead.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT...PRODUCING
SHOWERS THAT MAY BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HORSESHOE BAY TO ROUND ROCK TO LEXINGTON. TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION
OR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER TEXAS ARRIVES THURSDAY...AND BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMISTAD RESERVOIR
TO BOERNE TO LIBERTY HILL.
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Re:

#6059 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:56 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Man the radar out west is not being shy.


I'm loving the radar. I honestly thought we were gonna be waiting for stuff to form overhead after midnight. This is MUCH better. :D
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#6060 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:57 pm

It's radar snowing in Junction!!!!!!!!
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