Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6121 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:00 am

Ummmm read some of this!

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING...AS CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING WERE NEEDED BASED ON MUCH OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE NEW 00Z WRF RUN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN
BELOW FREEZING AS OF 03-04Z...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN ICEPACK REMAINS
FROM MONDAY/S WINTER STORM. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
THAT THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO WILL CONTINUE E INTO
CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
AS IT NEARS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z KSHV
RAOB REVEALS A LARGE MELTING LAYER BETWEEN 530-900MB...WITH THE
SUBREEZING LAYER HAVING WARMED 2C IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH THE
DEPTH OF THIS SUBFREEZING LAYER ALSO HAVING THINNED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY ON THIS
SUBFREEZING LAYER AND REMAIN A BIT TOO WARM...AND FEEL THAT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY
COOL AFTER 12Z...THUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW.
AREAS OF NCNTRL LA MAINLY ALONG/N OF A MANSFIELD...TO WINNFIELD
AND COLUMBIA LINE CURRENTLY AT/BELOW FREEZING SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EVENT DURATION...AND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LITTLE
LONGER DURATION OF SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
PW/S ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE ALSO NEARING AN INCH AS
WELL...RESULTING MORE IN A HEAVY/WET SNOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.


ATTM...BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/EXTREME SE OK...WITH TOTALS OF 4-6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7-8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
CLOSER TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4
INCHES...WITH AREAS OF NW AND NCNTRL LA POSSIBLY SEEING 3-6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM 0.40-0.80 INCHES /PER THE 00Z WRF/. THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISHING FROM W TO E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SPREADS E BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW/SLEET
...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
SLEET/SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX AND N LA. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE EXPANDED WARNING AREA...THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL OFFSET
MELTING...ALLOWING FOR GREATER ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE ICEPACK REMAINS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
POPS/WEATHER TYPES FOR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS ARE OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.
Last edited by Brent on Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#6122 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:00 am

:uarrow: Frankly, at this point, I think it's going to easily be 3-4 inches of snow in the Metroplex region and to the north. And looking at the recent radar returns from here back to New Mexico, I'm thinking someone in the North Texas area is going to double that amount.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6123 Postby KeriCarter » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:03 am

TheProfessor wrote:
KeriCarter wrote:We have plenty of room here at the inn in Texarkana if anyone wants to come over and play in the snow tomorrow. We have big plans for four wheeler riding, snow angels, trampoline jumping, snow ice cream making, and snowman making, after chores, of course. The kiddos are so excited. Ok, the youngest two are 3 and 1 so maybe I'm the most excited of all. They don't know yet what to expect.

Anyone have any other cool ideas for fun stuff to do on a farm when you get (hopefully) 4+ inches of snow? Our property is on a hill.



Snowball fight! I haven't had a good snowball fight in a while. 2010 to be exact. :lol:


Thanks Prof! Great idea. The three year old is going through a mean phase so hopefully there aren't any rocks in the ones he throws at little brother.
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#6124 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:12 am

I've heard several TV mets talking tonight about the fact that this will melt quickly tomorrow afternoon as temps get into the low to mid 40s. Now if it's mostly sunny by 12 noon, maybe. But if the clouds linger into the afternoon - and there's 4-6 inches of snow on the ground - I can't see it getting that warm if winds are only out of the west at 5 mph (which is what NWS is showing for Denison).

Am I missing something?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6125 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:14 am

Are those bands already forming west of Fort Worth?!
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#6126 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:15 am

Burnett reporting light rain, fog and mist and 33 degrees. Austin has fog, mist and 35. And it appears that there are some returns breaking out to the west and immediate SW of Austin.

I'm still hoping for a Portastorm miracle overnight!

Image
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#6127 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:15 am

They have west- northwest winds for me, it would be interesting to see the temps if it were to stay cloudy till like 3:00.
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#6128 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:18 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Also seeing some returns break out south and southwest of Lubbock. They are moving northeast, might get Yukon Cornelius and the folks around Wichita Falls in the game overnight.

That definitely would be nice, athough I'm not holding my breath. I'm hoping we can at least get in on the winter weather coming through on Friday!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6129 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:18 am

Brent wrote:Are those bands already forming west of Fort Worth?!


To me, it ooks like a band setting up west and northwest of Fort Worth and one setting up south of Brownwood.
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#6130 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:20 am

:uarrow: It's showing up as rain on my radar though. We could have more problems if that's the case because the water could freeze into ice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6131 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:21 am

Radar is just exploding a lot earlier than I expected... wow. It's 31 degrees here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6132 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:25 am

Brent & dhweather did not believe short term guidance this afternoon lol
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#6133 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:28 am

It is rain in Abilene at 35. Observation from Throckmorton says 34 and unknown precip. Same at Jacksboro.

Temperatures to the NE of where these bands are moving appear to at or be below freezing with dew points below freezing. So at the very least, a start as freezing rain and/or sleet depending on temperature profiles aloft?
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#6134 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:30 am

Wow, looks like some serious convection beginning to pop to the northeast of Abilene!
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#6135 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:30 am

In the last 30 minutes that radar has just EXPLODED around Abilene. The whole area seems to have filled in and there are plenty of bright colors showing up on the radar returns. :eek:
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#6136 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:35 am

Texas Storm Chasers tweet reports light flurries in McKinney already.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6137 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:36 am

Drizzle has started falling here in South Austin. Temp is at 35.
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#6138 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:36 am

I guess I'm just talking to myself. :D

But it looks like some bona fide thunderstorms building NE of Abilene to the NW of Forth Worth.
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Re:

#6139 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:37 am

Texas Snowman wrote:I guess I'm just talking to myself. :D

But it looks like some bona fide thunderstorms building NE of Abilene to the NW of Forth Worth.


I'm listening... :lol: Just waiting for it all to begin. Hopefully I can stay awake!
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Re:

#6140 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:39 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Texas Storm Chasers tweet reports light flurries in McKinney already.


Wow.

I'm around... trying to get some stuff done before it hits.

This will be my first Texas snowstorm!
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