Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: I was as disappointed as anyone. But I'm not sure the storm was "hyped."

When I heard TV mets on the 10pm news calling for whiteout conditions and someone seeing 6 inches of snow... to me that is hype.

I understand totally. But there WERE some real whiteout conditions and six inches of snow...just not exactly where it had been expected. I guess what I'm saying is that it's kind of like during hurricane season - we focus on the dot on the map and where it will cross the shoreline, the NHC tells us to be ready anywhere in the cone of uncertainty.

Doesn't mean I was happy that all I got was 30 minutes of light snowflakes or that I didn't consider it a busted forecast, because in many ways it was. But the storm itself, its strength and its potential were all realized IMO even if it wasn't where I wanted it to be.

[SouthernMet]

friday's set up always looked promising, wednesday was "if this, this, this all come together than we get buried" friday you guys don't have to worry about a warm nose, surface temps, or a shaky track of a ULL

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX...

SNOW BAND FORCED VIA FRONTOGENESIS FINALLY WANED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM YOUNG COUNTY
INTO PALO PINTO COUNTY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THIS AREA...SHERIFF OFFICES REPORT THAT SNOW HAS BEEN STEADILY
CLEARING OFF OF THE ROAD...LIKELY SUBLIMING AS DRY NORTH WINDS
BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE REGION. THE COLD AND
DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL HELP
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

TEXAS REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
COUNTRY AND AS A RESULT ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH OUR THERMAL PROFILE BECOMING UNUSUALLY
COLD ALOFT. MEANWHILE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW. FOR AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT HAS AN IMPRESSIVE
APPEARANCE ON TODAYS WATER VAPOR LOOP AND IT CERTAINLY RAISES
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS BY
DAYBREAK. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE VERY COLD AND THERE IS NO
QUESTION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. IN FACT
THE ONLY CONCERN OR MITIGATING FACTOR WITH SNOW IS GOING TO BE
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLIMATOLOGY OF SNOW PATTERNS
SAYS THESE SYSTEMS OFTEN NEVER PRODUCE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW
BECAUSE THEY ARE UNABLE TO GRAB ANY QUALITY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF SINCE THE 850MB WINDS NEVER GET AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. THUS THE SNOW THAT IS PRODUCED ALOFT WILL HAVE
TO WORK THROUGH AND SATURATE THE DRY LAYER BEFORE IT CAN REACH THE
GROUND. HOW MUCH SNOW THIS DRY LAYER WILL EAT UP IS A ESSENTIALLY
AN UNANSWERABLE QUESTION...BUT IT IS A BIG LIMITING FACTOR.

DESPITE THE MOISTURE CONCERN...I DONT WANT TO IMPLY THAT I AM NOT
IMPRESSED AT THE SETUP AT HAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY COLD
AIR IN PLACE WITH SATURATION FROM -10C TO -20C WHICH IS THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SNOW DENDRITES...AND WILL HELP MAKE SNOW
FLAKES GROW FAST AND LARGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 7 DEG/KM EXIST FROM 400-600MB WHICH ADDS AN ELEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND EXTRA VERTICAL DEPTH FOR SNOW TO GROW.
GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE SNOW MAKING
MICROPHYSICS ENVIRONMENT...AN UNUSUALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TO LIQUID
WATER RATIO IS EXPECTED. THIS SNOW WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND WET LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT MORE DRY AND FLUFFY.

SINCE THE SNOW IS DRIVEN BY UPWARD DYNAMIC FORCING...THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW FALLS. BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM PIVOTS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION...THIS IS
THE AREA THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO
COOPER. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ADVISORY...NORTHWEST OF A
EASTLAND TO GAINESVILLE LINE...HAVE GONE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AS YOU HEAD
FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO
JUST A DUSTING. FOR THE METROPLEX THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS BEING IN SOUTHEAST DALLAS
COUNTY. I MUST STRESS THAT JUST AN ERROR OF 0.1 INCHES OF LIQUID
QPF MAY BALLOON OUT TO AN EXTRA 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR RESULT IN
WAY LESS THAN FORECAST TOO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FALLS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE 20S. THIS MEANS WE DONT EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING WHEN IT
HITS THE GROUND OR STREETS. IT IS REALLY HARD TO KNOW IF TRAVEL
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AT A HALF INCH OR 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE
METROPLEX AT EVEN A HALF INCH...WHICH IS WHY WE FELT IT WAS BEST
TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY FOR A SEEMINGLY LOW AMOUNT OF
SNOW...THAT PLUS THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE FIRST PLACE! IF THE BAND OF SNOW DOES TRACK TOO
FAR NORTHWEST TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX...THE WINTER EVENT
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO IT WOULD JUST SERVE
AS EXTRA LEAD TIME FOR THAT.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH
ON THE WEST COAST. THESE WINDS WILL START A STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ORGANIZING OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. THIS LIFT WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
MOS POPS LOOK MUCH TOO LOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF
THIS SIGNAL. THE ISSUE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE INTO SATURDAY. AND WHILE THE ENTIRE COLUMN
IS BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD
SWITCH FROM LIGHT SNOW GRAINS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. FROZEN
PRECIPITATION REQUIRES AN ICE NUCLEI BECAUSE WATER DOES NOT KNOW
HOW TO FORM INTO THE CRYSTAL STRUCTURE WITHOUT HELP. PURE WATER
DOES NOT FREEZE UNTIL -40C...BUT IN REAL WORLD CLOUDS...POLLEN AND
DIRT PARTICLES WILL /TEACH/ WATER HOW TO FREEZE AT TEMPS OF -8C.
SO ONCE TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD RISE ABOVE -8C BUT STAY BELOW
FREEZING...THERE WILL NO LONGER BE ICE IN THE CLOUD...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPER COOLED RAINDROPS WHICH FREEZE ON
CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. THIS TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OF
THE HIGHEST IMPACT BECAUSE IT IS SO EFFICIENT AT GOING TO ICE
WHEN IT HITS THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT WE ARE CONCERNED THAT
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL RECEIVE A GLAZE OF ICE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THIS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN FOR TRAVEL. WE EXPECT MOST
OF THE CWA...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TO
CONTEND WITH THIS FREEZING PRECIP. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Texas Snowman]

I agree this looks more promising to deliver where and what it is supposed to. I even wonder if it might deliver more than expected, kind of like the snow did this morning in places like Mineral Wells and Jacksboro.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

friday's set up always looked promising, wednesday was "if this, this, this all come together than we get buried" friday you guys don't have to worry about a warm nose, surface temps, or a shaky track of a ULL

No warm nose? Check
Sub-freezing surface temps? Check
Sufficient lift for precip? Check
Available moisture? Not so fast. At least from what I've read (not a met).

It's always something.

[Brent]

:uarrow: I agree this looks more promising to deliver where and what it is supposed to. I even wonder if it might deliver more than expected, kind of like the snow did this morning in places like Mineral Wells and Jacksboro.

That's exactly what I'm thinking, plus the fact there's no question it will be snow... it's all about how much moisture can make it through the dry air and with a dry snow we don't need as much QPF to really start adding it up.

[Ntxw]

Fluffy cotton-balls should you get them. Not as perfect a sounding as last Feb and Superbowl storm but up there. 15:1? 20:1?

[dhweather]

High comedy.

[TheProfessor]

I love how the heaviest snow on Wednesday was Southeast of me, and the heavier snow tomorrow is supposed to be Northwest of me.

[gpsnowman]

It appears the potential snow tomorrow will be of the light and fluffy variety. Makes me think of the Super Bowl week of winter we had in 2011. After the initial ice storm we had several days of below freezing weather. And then on the Thursday or Friday that week a snowstorm blew through dumping several inches in the Metroplex. What I remember most about that snow was the fact there was absolutely zero melting as it started to accumulate. The prolonged period of cold beforehand prevented any melting of falling snow. I happened to be outdoors when the snow started falling and was in amazement at the instant accumulation. Usually here in DFW it takes a while for that to happen no matter how heavy the snow may fall. Snow started to cover everything within literally seconds upon contact of anything on the surface. Very cool to witness that. Here's hoping something similar, albeit on a smaller scale, happens tomorrow. Go snow!

[dhweather]

Even higher comedy.

[gboudx]

It appears the potential snow tomorrow will be of the light and fluffy variety. Makes me think of the Super Bowl week of winter we had in 2011. After the initial ice storm we had several days of below freezing weather. And then on the Thursday or Friday that week a snowstorm blew through dumping several inches in the Metroplex. What I remember most about that snow was the fact there was absolutely zero melting as it started to accumulate. The prolonged period of cold beforehand prevented any melting of falling snow. I happened to be outdoors when the snow started falling and was in amazement at the instant accumulation. Usually here in DFW it takes a while for that to happen no matter how heavy the snow may fall. Snow started to cover everything within literally seconds upon contact of anything on the surface. Very cool to witness that. Here's hoping something similar, albeit on a smaller scale, happens tomorrow. Go snow!

Yep well said. I remember it too and how quickly it accumulated. Nice and powdery stuff the kids can play in for a while without getting soaking wet.

[Ralph's Weather]

I like the set-up just am hoping for the system to track a bit further E than most models show so that my low level dry air can be scoured out. Depending on the track of the low I could end up with nothing as most models show though looking at the soundings it is very close or as the RGEM shows I could see over an inch.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even higher comedy.

I would hesitate to discount the model that has nailed most storms this winter. It may have slightly inflated totals, but the trend with recent storms is to track SE of what the consensus is.

[Ntxw]

I like the set-up just am hoping for the system to track a bit further E than most models show so that my low level dry air can be scoured out. Depending on the track of the low I could end up with nothing as most models show though looking at the soundings it is very close or as the RGEM shows I could see over an inch.

NE Texas looks like potentially the ones left out this game. NW Texas will be the winners. DFW again is sitting in between...but at least this is the really nice snow if you get it. Dry, powdery, and drifts.

[Ntxw]

Heck, I'd take a La Nina winter over this one any day. At least in Ninas there's usually several fronts of very strong magnitude and the jet buckles enough to allow the jet stream across the state fairly well south. Austin's last snow event was from a Nina-induced Arctic blast. And then, between the huge fronts, we'd have nice, warm weather. Only downside is those winters aren't good for drought-stricken areas.

Snap out of it Portastorm! La Nina's are evil. The past 3 have given you harship. 2007-2008 Super Nina brought upon us the -PDO mega drought. 2010-2011 sure gave us the super bowl week but the ensuing summer was hell on earth. And then you have the following Nina 2011-2012 winter...didn't even get freezing drizzle that winter!

[Tireman4]

You know what. I am a gloomy gus. I wanted snow. I would to run in it, but noooo...poor Porta...he can not even sniff it....ughh...Do you think Ntxw that maybe Houston might get something in March? Not gonna ask Wxman 57. He will just laugh at me and come over with a blow torch...sigh

[Ralph's Weather]

The end of the RAP run actually looks like I may be in line for snow starting around noon. Not near as much low level dry air as some other models.

[TexasF6]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TXZ171>173-183>192-206-271200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS
607 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL
COUNTRY AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD BRING SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LANGTRY TO BOERNE TO
TAYLOR LINE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY LIMITED ICING IMPACTS TO ELEVATED BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

FORECAST DETAILS MAY CHANGE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION
SO CONTINUE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR
ANY UPDATES.

$$

[WeatherNewbie]

:uarrow: I was as disappointed as anyone. But I'm not sure the storm was "hyped."

When I heard TV mets on the 10pm news calling for whiteout conditions and someone seeing 6 inches of snow... to me that is hype.

I understand totally. But there WERE some real whiteout conditions and six inches of snow...just not exactly where it had been expected. I guess what I'm saying is that it's kind of like during hurricane season - we focus on the dot on the map and where it will cross the shoreline, the NHC tells us to be ready anywhere in the cone of uncertainty.

Doesn't mean I was happy that all I got was 30 minutes of light snowflakes or that I didn't consider it a busted forecast, because in many ways it was. But the storm itself, its strength and its potential were all realized IMO even if it wasn't where I wanted it to be.

Bingo. I don't know why so many fail to acknowledge this. The location was always going to be hard to predict (as is the case with most snow in NTX) but the forecast was pretty close as far as amounts. And had the low tracked a little differently, a lot more of that QPF that fell as rain in DFW would have been snow.