Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7561 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:34 pm

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>132-135-141-142-148-032145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-ANDERSON-
131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NOW...
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY ACROSS
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL DOWN TO 1 MILE...BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

It is 42 in Heath right now.

downsouthman1 · #7562 Postby **downsouthman1** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:36 pm

dhweather wrote:SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>132-135-141-142-148-032145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-ANDERSON-
131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NOW...
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY ACROSS
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL DOWN TO 1 MILE...BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

It is 42 in Heath right now.

At this point, they have clearly decided to die in that trench.

cheezyWXguy · #7563 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:41 pm

So this warm front has been much slower to retreat north today, and last I checked wasn't even too far north of me in College Station. What does this mean for us down here? If the warm front is held further south, will this make it easier for the cold air to flow south into our region? I have a feeling it won't make much difference, since the warm front is to my north, and it will probably just come down to the speed of the arctic front in the end anyway, but it seemed like it was worth a thought.

GRAYSONCO.WX · #7564 Postby **GRAYSONCO.WX** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:43 pm

All of the surrounding NWS offices are issuing winter weather headlines while the FW NWS is jus' chillin' haha!

#7565 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:45 pm

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:All of the surrounding NWS offices are issuing winter weather headlines while the FW NWS is jus' chillin' haha!

They must be basking in that 65+ degree weather in their offices :sun:

#7566 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:46 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
Brent wrote:46 and raining here...

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.

Looking out my window in Addison, I'm not sure how we are getting to the low 60's as forecast. Mid 40's with fog and mist.

The warm front is just south of Dallas now. Dewpoints in the 60s and temps in the 60s/70s are just south of you and moving northward. Temps should continue to warm overnight.

downsouthman1 · #7567 Postby **downsouthman1** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
Brent wrote:46 and raining here...

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.

Looking out my window in Addison, I'm not sure how we are getting to the low 60's as forecast. Mid 40's with fog and mist.

The warm front is just south of Dallas now. Dewpoints in the 60s and temps in the 60s/70s are just south of you and moving northward. Temps should continue to warm overnight.

It has a very impressive northerly push but not westerly. It's struggling to approach the I-35 corridor. Seems to be traveling north along I-45 instead.

#7568 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:51 pm

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.[/quote]
Looking out my window in Addison, I'm not sure how we are getting to the low 60's as forecast. Mid 40's with fog and mist.[/quote]

The warm front is just south of Dallas now. Dewpoints in the 60s and temps in the 60s/70s are just south of you and moving northward. Temps should continue to warm overnight.[/quote]

It will be all a memory of warmth for you Mr. Wxman 57. He he he

#7569 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:57 pm

I honestly expect that FWD is trying to nail this event down best they can before saying anything. The models have been wet, drier, and now wet again, that makes it harder to forecast. All that said, I will be surprised if at least a winter weather advisory is not issued with the afternoon package.

downsouthman1 · #7570 Postby **downsouthman1** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:57 pm

dhweather wrote:I will be surprised if at least a winter weather advisory is not issued with the afternoon package.

This.

#7571 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:08 pm

Arctic Front is in a line from just north of Dalhart TX to just north of Stillwater OK.

#7572 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:17 pm

Quick question for Wxman 57...a Warm Front is moving northward to Dallas. A Cold Front is moving south from Dalhart. They will meet. Will the Cold Front just overrun the Warm Front? Will it just completely dissolve it?

downsouthman1 · #7573 Postby **downsouthman1** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:20 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Quick question for Wxman 57...a Warm Front is moving northward to Dallas. A Cold Front is moving south from Dalhart. They will meet. Will the Cold Front just overrun the Warm Front? Will it just completely dissolve it?

The warm front is being drawn north by the southwestern shortwave. The arctic cold front is being pushed southward in the wake of the lead shortwave in Ontario, Canada.

Edit: My experience is usually that the arctic air drives under the warmer air.

#7574 Postby **TXdaddy217** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:34 pm

Winter Weather Advisories posted for Amarillo area and Wichita Falls area. Perhaps these will expand south as time progresses.
Abilene forecast still shows 70% snow/sleet for tomorrow. Good winter luck to all who want it.

weatherdude1108 · #7575 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:43 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Quick question for Wxman 57...a Warm Front is moving northward to Dallas. A Cold Front is moving south from Dalhart. They will meet. Will the Cold Front just overrun the Warm Front? Will it just completely dissolve it?

The warm front is being drawn north by the southwestern shortwave. The arctic cold front is being pushed southward in the wake of the lead shortwave in Ontario, Canada.

Edit: My experience is usually that the arctic air drives under the warmer air.

Cold air more dense than warm air. Makes sense. Could create classic overrunning if you get WAA condensing where it meets the cold dense dome, dependent on temperature, pressure and dewpoint of the cold air of course. If dry cold, the warm air would need to saturate the cold dry dome (adiabatic cooling) before precip starts, which has been the case down here a lot this Winter.

I know that's not your original question, just going on a tangent. :cheesy:

Sorry.

#7576 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:04 pm

Current conditions at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (KDFW)

Fog/Mist 50°F 10°C
Humidity96%
Wind SpeedSE 5 mph
Barometer29.86 in (1011.0 mb)
Dewpoint49°F (9°C)
Visibility2.00 mi
Wind Chill48°F (9°C)

Last Update on 3 Mar 2:53 pm CST

hmmmmm :roll:

#7577 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:09 pm

The WPC has updated its winter weather maps and it's very concerning to see a decent swath of the I-35 corridor in the possibility zone of getting at or above 0.10" of freezing precipitation. You don't see that very often. This storm means business!

(check out the total for 21z Thursday and 0z Friday)

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

#7578 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:13 pm

Here's the DFW WWA:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

a winter weather advisory is in effect for portions of north
texas from wednesday afternoon through thursday morning...

an arctic cold front will move across north texas overnight
through wednesday morning. temperatures will steadily cool behind
the front with the freezing line progressing steadily southward
across north texas wednesday afternoon and evening. initially...
periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected with the
cold front on wednesday. a steady transition to freezing
rain and then sleet, will occur from northwest to southeast
through the afternoon and evening hours as temperatures fall
below freezing. a wintry mix will continue across the entire
region wednesday night through thursday morning with all
precipitation ending by midday thursday. temperatures should warm
above freezing across all of north texas thursday afternoon.

TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145-040515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0006.150304T2100Z-150305T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...
HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...winter weather advisory in effect from 3 PM wednesday to noon
cst thursday...

the National Weather Service in fort worth has issued a winter
weather advisory which is in effect from 3 PM wednesday to noon
cst thursday.

* timing, from 3 PM wednesday through noon thursday.

* precipitation type, freezing rain, becoming a mix of light
sleet and light snow.

* accumulation, up to one tenth of an inch of ice, up to one
half inch of sleet and less than one inch of snow.

* main impact, snow, sleet and ice will create hazardous travel
conditions, especially wednesday evening through early
thursday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory means that periods of winter
precipitation may cause travel difficulties. be prepared for
slippery roads and plan on some travel delays.

#7579 Postby **TheProfessor** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:18 pm

looking at Norman's forecasts for it's Southern counties, I'm surprised FWD isn't issuing Winter Storm Warnings for our most Northern counties because that would definitely fit the criteria.

downsouthman1 · #7580 Postby **downsouthman1** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:23 pm

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: looking at Norman's forecasts for it's Southern counties, I'm surprised FWD isn't issuing Winter Storm Warnings for are most Northern counties because that would definitely fit the criteria.

They're still playing it safe apparently to watch the evolution of the systems 1st.

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