2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Yeah, the state of the Atlantic is as poor as it gets right now. I don't know of a database for vertical instability values, but I'm guessing 2015 holds the record for lowest values to date. The SST configuration is awful, with most of the heat focused in the subtropics (one caveat is the Gulf, which is running well above average). And to top it off, we have a strengthening El Nino, likely to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic throughout the season.

That's why I do believe that the Gulf is going to get 1 storm that clobbers someone as that may be the place to watch due to what a lot of El Ninos have done in the past but also don't forget that some of those El Nino years featured an East coast rider or in addition to the gulf activity. Also a strong El Nino doesn't mean no impact{ see 1965 as it had one of the strongest landfalls in an El Nino year with Betsy}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

El Nino years favor activity out of the tropics. Given the way the past several seasons have gone, I see the BOC and near Bermuda being the hotspots as usual.

Worth pointing out that the last 3 years that had a 2nd El Nino were 1969 and 1987. 1958 wasn't too bad, but it did have Helene. 1969 was probs a Modoki if I had to guess, but had Camile. 1987 was pretty much nothing.

[Andrew92]

:uarrow: Yeah, the state of the Atlantic is as poor as it gets right now. I don't know of a database for vertical instability values, but I'm guessing 2015 holds the record for lowest values to date. The SST configuration is awful, with most of the heat focused in the subtropics (one caveat is the Gulf, which is running well above average). And to top it off, we have a strengthening El Nino, likely to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic throughout the season.

That's why I do believe that the Gulf is going to get 1 storm that clobbers someone as that may be the place to watch due to what a lot of El Ninos have done in the past but also don't forget that some of those El Nino years featured an East coast rider or in addition to the gulf activity. Also a strong El Nino doesn't mean no impact{ see 1965 as it had one of the strongest landfalls in an El Nino year with Betsy}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

El Nino years favor activity out of the tropics. Given the way the past several seasons have gone, I see the BOC and near Bermuda being the hotspots as usual.

Worth pointing out that the last 3 years that had a 2nd El Nino were 1969 and 1987. 1958 wasn't too bad, but it did have Helene. 1969 was probs a Modoki if I had to guess, but had Camile. 1987 was pretty much nothing.

Emily hit Hispaniola as a major, I think. Though it somehow only caused minimal damage.

I'm not seeing the Betsy-type track this year if the El Nino is strong enough and waters in the tropical Atlantic remain cooler than average. I'm thinking more of something like Audrey, Anita, or Alicia if a big one hits the US. I know Anita actually hit Mexico, but think about if it hit just a short distance to the north...

-Andrew92

[LarryWx]

In case anyone wants to analyze more years, these are the years that I have in the 2nd year El Niño category: 1987, 1977 (quiet overall but had Anita), 1969 (this one very active in addition to Camille ), 1958, 1953, 1940, 1919 (cat 3 S TX hit), 1914, 1905, 1900 (big Galveston hit), 1896 (big FL Big Bend hit), and 1885. One could make a case to also count 1877 and 1930. Note that the five with the noted big GOM hits were all weak El Nino's except for 1896. The strongest El Nino's of the 2nd year bunch were 1987, 1930, 1905, 1896, and 1877. The most recent model trends as well as warming/very warm subsurface suggest we may very well be headed for an El Niño on the stronger side, but that remains to be seen. If so, then I'd think that 1987, 1930, 1905, 1896, and 1877 would be the closest ENSO analogs to use from this 2nd year bunch.

**Edited

[Yellow Evan]

In case anyone wants to analyze more years, these are the years that I have in the 2nd year El Niño category: 1987, 1977 (quiet overall but had Anita), 1969 (this one very active in addition to Camille ), 1958, 1953, 1940, 1919 (cat 3 S TX hit), 1914, 1905, 1900 (big Galveston hit), 1896 (big FL Big Bend hit), and 1885. One could make a case to also count 1877 and 1930. Note that the five with the noted big GOM hits were all weak El Nino's except for 1896. The strongest El Nino's of the 2nd year bunch were 1987, 1930, 1905, 1896, and 1877. The most recent model trends as well as warming/very warm subsurface suggest we may very well be headed for an El Niño on the stronger side, but that remains to be seen. If so, then I'd think that 1987, 1930, 1905, 1896, and 1877 would be the closest ENSO analogs to use from this 2nd year bunch.

**Edited

Hmm interesting. Based on the stronger Nino analogs, I'd say there is a good chance the USA avoids a major again.

[Steve]

Yeah, no doubt the "it only takes one" motto still stands. That being said, the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States is much lower in El Nino years when compared to Neutral or La Nina years, for obvious reasons.

Are you sure about that, and do you have the actual stats on this? I would assume it's true, but I wasn't sure beyond Neutral whether IH landfalls on the USA were greater in La Nina or El Nino years. I'd almost guess that years with any hurricane landfalls are probably close between El Nino and La Nina, but it just seems like so many years with El Ninos featured major hits on the USA much more so than La Nina years (which often feature TS/Cat 1-2 hits). Then I thought I read that the neutral years mattered whether they were cool biased or warm biased.

Recent IH US Hits:

1957 - Audry (El Nino Strong)
1960 - Donna (Neutral)
1965 - Betsy (El Nino Strong)
1966 - Alma (Neutral Cold Bias)
1969 - Camille (El Nino slight I think)
1970 - Celia (La Nina Moderate-Strong)
1979 - Frederic (Neutral - Warm Bias)
1980 - Allen (Neutral)
1983 - Alicia (Transition Year - Neutral to La Nina)
1989 - Hugo (Strong La Nina)
1992 - Andrew (Neutral Warm Bias)
1995 - Opal (El Nino Moderate)
1996 - Fran (Neutral)
1999 - Floyd (La Nina Moderate)
2003 - Isabel (Neutral - Warm Bias)
2004 - Jeanne, Frances, Charley, Ivan (El Nino Weak)
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma (Neutral - Warm Bias)

I'm probably leaving a few out, but going back 58 years (assuming I didn't miss any), we've had at least 23 major hits on the mainland USA. 8 major hurricanes landfalled in El Nino years; 3 hit in La Nina Years, 12 hit in Neutral years (most of which were Neutral Warm Bias). This is only a small sample of "time" so I'm interested in whether you have something to refute this or back up your statement that the probability of a major striking in an El Nino year is much lower than La Nina.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, no doubt the "it only takes one" motto still stands. That being said, the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States is much lower in El Nino years when compared to Neutral or La Nina years, for obvious reasons.

Do you have the actual stats on this? I would assume it's true, but I wasn't sure beyond Neutral whether IH landfalls on the USA were greater in La Nina or El Nino years. I'd almost guess that years with any hurricane landfalls are probably close between El Nino and La Nina, but it just seems like so many years with El Ninos featured major hits on the USA much more so than La Nina years (which often feature TS/Cat 1-2 hits). Then I thought I read that the neutral years mattered whether they were cool biased or warm biased.

Recent IH US Hits:

1957 - Audry (El Nino Strong)
1960 - Donna (Neutral)
1965 - Betsy (El Nino Strong)
1966 - Alma (El Nino Strong)
1969 - Camille (El Nino slight I think)
1970 - Celia (El Nino Moderate)
1979 - Frederic (Neutral - Warm Bias)
1983 - Alicia (Transition Year - Neutral to La Nina)
1989 - Hugo (Strong La Nina)
1992 - Andrew (El Nino medium)
1995 - Opal (El Nino Moderate)
1996 - Fran (Neutral)
1999 - Floyd (La Nina Moderate)
2003 - Isabel (El Nino Medium)
2004 - Jeanne, Frances, Charley, Ivan (Neutral - Warm Bias)
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma (Neutral - Warm Bias)

So going back 58 years (assuming I didn't miss any), we've had 22 major hits on the mainland USA. 8 major hurricanes landfilled in El Nino years; 2 hit in La Nina Years, 12 hit in Neutral years (most of which were Neutral Warm Bias) but 8 of those came in 2004 and 2005 where the Atlantic SST's seemed to play a major factor.

2003 was not an El Niño nor was 1992, 1970, and 1966. 2004 was a very weak El Niño.

[Steve]

Are you saying GG Weather's chart is wrong? Because if it isn't, and it would be fair to use the 3 month mean, and we consider the meat of the hurricane season of 2004 as "El Nino Weak", then it lends even more disagreement to tropicalwx13's statement and puts recent El Nino years about as likely as Neutral years to favor hits.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Yellow Evan]

Are you saying GG Weather's chart is wrong?

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Use the CPC's (on my phone, so I cant post it)

[Steve]

Your boy is using their data see under (ONI). There are some slight differences in the 3 months, but they are almost the same.

CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
GGW: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

I'll fix specific to what the landfalling 3 month average shows. But it still doesn't show a correlation with La Nina major hits > El Nino greater hits.

I think I have it fixed.

[LarryWx]

Yeah, no doubt the "it only takes one" motto still stands. That being said, the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States is much lower in El Nino years when compared to Neutral or La Nina years, for obvious reasons.

Do you have the actual stats on this? I would assume it's true, but I wasn't sure beyond Neutral whether IH landfalls on the USA were greater in La Nina or El Nino years. I'd almost guess that years with any hurricane landfalls are probably close between El Nino and La Nina, but it just seems like so many years with El Ninos featured major hits on the USA much more so than La Nina years (which often feature TS/Cat 1-2 hits). Then I thought I read that the neutral years mattered whether they were cool biased or warm biased.

Recent IH US Hits:

1957 - Audry (El Nino Strong)
1960 - Donna (Neutral)
1965 - Betsy (El Nino Strong)
1966 - Alma (El Nino Strong)
1969 - Camille (El Nino slight I think)
1970 - Celia (El Nino Moderate)
1979 - Frederic (Neutral - Warm Bias)
1983 - Alicia (Transition Year - Neutral to La Nina)
1989 - Hugo (Strong La Nina)
1992 - Andrew (El Nino medium)
1995 - Opal (El Nino Moderate)
1996 - Fran (Neutral)
1999 - Floyd (La Nina Moderate)
2003 - Isabel (El Nino Medium)
2004 - Jeanne, Frances, Charley, Ivan (Neutral - Warm Bias)
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma (Neutral - Warm Bias)

So going back 58 years (assuming I didn't miss any), we've had 22 major hits on the mainland USA. 8 major hurricanes landfilled in El Nino years; 2 hit in La Nina Years, 12 hit in Neutral years (most of which were Neutral Warm Bias) but 8 of those came in 2004 and 2005 where the Atlantic SST's seemed to play a major factor.

2003 was not an El Niño nor was 1992, 1970, and 1966. 2004 was a very weak El Niño.

Steve,
I agree with Yellow Evan's corrections. I'd also add that 1995 should be La Nina rather than El Nino and 1989 should be neutral rather than La Nina. I'm confident that if you make these adjustments that the correlations you determined will change a good bit since these changes represent six corrections.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

*edited

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, no doubt the "it only takes one" motto still stands. That being said, the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States is much lower in El Nino years when compared to Neutral or La Nina years, for obvious reasons.

Do you have the actual stats on this? I would assume it's true, but I wasn't sure beyond Neutral whether IH landfalls on the USA were greater in La Nina or El Nino years. I'd almost guess that years with any hurricane landfalls are probably close between El Nino and La Nina, but it just seems like so many years with El Ninos featured major hits on the USA much more so than La Nina years (which often feature TS/Cat 1-2 hits). Then I thought I read that the neutral years mattered whether they were cool biased or warm biased.

Recent IH US Hits:

1957 - Audry (El Nino Strong)
1960 - Donna (Neutral)
1965 - Betsy (El Nino Strong)
1966 - Alma (El Nino Strong)
1969 - Camille (El Nino slight I think)
1970 - Celia (El Nino Moderate)
1979 - Frederic (Neutral - Warm Bias)
1983 - Alicia (Transition Year - Neutral to La Nina)
1989 - Hugo (Strong La Nina)
1992 - Andrew (El Nino medium)
1995 - Opal (El Nino Moderate)
1996 - Fran (Neutral)
1999 - Floyd (La Nina Moderate)
2003 - Isabel (El Nino Medium)
2004 - Jeanne, Frances, Charley, Ivan (Neutral - Warm Bias)
2005 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma (Neutral - Warm Bias)

So going back 58 years (assuming I didn't miss any), we've had 22 major hits on the mainland USA. 8 major hurricanes landfilled in El Nino years; 2 hit in La Nina Years, 12 hit in Neutral years (most of which were Neutral Warm Bias) but 8 of those came in 2004 and 2005 where the Atlantic SST's seemed to play a major factor.

2003 was not an El Niño nor was 1992, 1970, and 1966. 2004 was a very weak El Niño.

Also Frances, Isabel, and Floyd were Cat 2's at landfall. Bret 99 however was a Cat 3.

Elena 85, Allen 80, Fredric 79, Elosie 75, and Gloria 85 were all also major landfalls.
I'm not trying to sound rude, just accurate.

[Steve]

[quote="Yellow Evan]
Elena 85, Allen 80, Fredric 79, Elosie 75, and Gloria 85 were all also major landfalls.
I'm not trying to sound rude, just accurate.[/quote]

I don't ever take you for being rude. I'm glad you fixed it, because I was going off memory and then using the chart. I forgot Eloise, Elena and Gloria (Elena hit not far from where we lived, but we barely had leaves blowing - very much did not have a SW side or at least effects).

So Elena and Gloria were borderline weak La Nina (.05 3 month), Frederic in 1979 was Neutral (slight warm bias), Eloise was La Nina strong.

Drop out Francis, Floyd and Isabel and we take out 1 La Nina and 2 El Ninos. Then Brett adds back in a La Nina. These 58 years still don't show a greater likelihood of IH USA strikes in a La Nina year. That still sort of surprises me. At least during this period (excluding all other factors), it's apparent that the most likely major hit on the USA would come in a Neutral-Warm year followed by El Nino, followed by La Nina followed by Neutral Cold.

[LarryWx]

I don't ever take you for being rude. I'm glad you fixed it, because I was going off memory and then using the chart. I forgot Eloise, Elena and Gloria (Elena hit not far from where we lived, but we barely had leaves blowing - very much did not have a SW side or at least effects).

So Elena and Gloria were borderline weak La Nina (.05 3 month), Frederic in 1979 was Neutral (slight warm bias), Eloise was La Nina strong.

Drop out Francis, Floyd and Isabel and we take out 1 La Nina and 2 El Ninos. Then Brett adds back in a La Nina. These 58 years still don't show a greater likelihood of IH USA strikes in a La Nina year. That still sort of surprises me. At least during this period (excluding all other factors), it's apparent that the most likely major hit on the USA would come in a Neutral-Warm year followed by El Nino, followed by La Nina followed by Neutral Cold.

Steve et al,
Here's my list of major CONUS hits since 1950, including counting Betsy and Andrew as two major hits (you may not want to do that), going by ENSO at the time of the actual hit (I don't have Gloria as a major hit per Unisys):

La Nina 10: Easy 1950, Hazel 1954, Hilda 1964, Isbell 1964, Celia 1970, Eloise 1975, Alicia 1983, Elena 1985, Opal 1995, Bret 1999

Neutral 15: Gracie 1959, Donna 1960, Carla 1961, Alma 1966, Beulah 1967, Frederic 1979, Allen 1980, Hugo 1989, Andrew (FL) 1992, Andrew (LA) 1992, Fran 1996, Dennis 2005, Katrina 2005, Rita 2005, Wilma 2005

El Nino 7: Audrey 1957, Betsy (FL) 1965, Betsy (LA) 1965, Camille 1969, Charley 2004, Ivan 2004, Jeanne 2004

So, for all CONUS major hits since 1950, neutral wins hands down with 15 vs. 10 for La Nina and 7 for El Nino. Note that 4 of the 7 El Nino hits were during a weak one and there hasn't been a major hit during El Nino stronger than weak since 1965.


If I had not counted Betsy and Andrew twice, it would have been 14 for neutral, 10 for La Nina, and 6 for El Nino.

Note that for East coast hits (SE FL north), alone (8), the tally is 5 for neutral (Gracie 1959, Donna 1960, Hugo 1989, Andrew 1992, Fran 1996), 2 for El Nino (Betsy 1965 and Jeanne 2004), and only 1 for La Nina (Hazel 1954).

So, for CONUS Gulf hits (incl. FL), alone (24), the tally is 10 for neutral, 9 for La Nina, and 5 for El Nino.


Sources:

ENSO (ONI):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml


Hurricane tracks:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

[Steve]

Nice, thanks Larry. You went back a little further than I did but also picked up Hilda in 1964 (I've heard of it, but I never much looked into that one and didn't know it was a major). So then in the 65 year sample, we go Neutral, La Nina, El Nino in that order, but slightly more La Nina than El Nino hits overall. We nuked out the storms that may have been higher end but hit at a 2 or whatever (didn't even count close by 2ish hits like Lili (El Nino), Georges (La Nina) or Gustav (Neutral Cool)). Taken by itself overall, neutral-warm seems to be the most likely setup for major hits in America with La Nina and El Nino being a bit lower and then Neutral-Cold slightly less but La Nina having a few more than El Nino if not as much as maybe I and 13 thought.

Andrew and Betsy had double IH hits, but of course Katrina hit as a I, IV and III. It's possible Camille had 2 hits as well, but we weren't counting Plaquemines Parish LA followed by MS Gulf Coast which happened with Katrina and Camille but are relatively close lanfalls.

[ninel conde]

el nino is only 1 factor. every indicator strongly signals a dead season. the question isnt can a major hit this season, but can one even form?

[LarryWx]

el nino is only 1 factor. every indicator strongly signals a dead season. the question isnt can a major hit this season, but can one even form?

Ninel! Long time, no read! I still haven't forgotten your great 2006 tropical contest triumph. I had for a long time thought of you as tending to be overly negative on activity but 2006 tells me to at least listen to what you have to say.

In all seriousness, if we end up with a strong El Niño later this year, then getting a major to form wouldn't be a gimme. However, even then, I'd think that the odds would favor at least one forming.

[ninel conde]

el nino is only 1 factor. every indicator strongly signals a dead season. the question isnt can a major hit this season, but can one even form?

Ninel! Long time, no read! I still haven't forgotten your great 2006 tropical contest triumph. I had for a long time thought of you as tending to be overly negative on activity but 2006 tells me to at least listen to what you have to say.

In all seriousness, if we end up with a strong El Niño later this year, then getting a major to form wouldn't be a gimme. However, even then, I'd think that the odds would favor at least one forming.

If one does form it wont be in the gom north of 25n nor threatening florida or the east coast.

[wxman57]

el nino is only 1 factor. every indicator strongly signals a dead season. the question isnt can a major hit this season, but can one even form?

Ninel! Long time, no read! I still haven't forgotten your great 2006 tropical contest triumph. I had for a long time thought of you as tending to be overly negative on activity but 2006 tells me to at least listen to what you have to say.

In all seriousness, if we end up with a strong El Niño later this year, then getting a major to form wouldn't be a gimme. However, even then, I'd think that the odds would favor at least one forming.

If one does form it wont be in the gom north of 25n nor threatening florida or the east coast.

There's little correlation between El Nino and Gulf Coast impacts, as far as inhibiting such impacts, that is. In fact, many Gulf Coast impacts have come in El Nino seasons. I certainly wouldn't say there's no risk north of 25N in the Gulf.

[Yellow Evan]

Ninel! Long time, no read! I still haven't forgotten your great 2006 tropical contest triumph. I had for a long time thought of you as tending to be overly negative on activity but 2006 tells me to at least listen to what you have to say.

In all seriousness, if we end up with a strong El Niño later this year, then getting a major to form wouldn't be a gimme. However, even then, I'd think that the odds would favor at least one forming.

If one does form it wont be in the gom north of 25n nor threatening florida or the east coast.

There's little correlation between El Nino and Gulf Coast impacts, as far as inhibiting such impacts, that is. In fact, many Gulf Coast impacts have come in El Nino seasons. I certainly wouldn't say there's no risk north of 25N in the Gulf.

But I still have my doubts that something from tropical-origin will make it into the Gulf, though something from non-tropical is possible, though patterns for the last several years have favored non-tropical systems off the East Coast instead.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in today (for paid subscribers). Can't post the graphics, but the forecast for August-October is for quite hostile conditions. VERY dry air from the Caribbean to Africa along with quite high pressure. Cool water from Africa to the central Caribbean. Total of 8 named storms, of which 3-4 become hurricanes. ACE 50% of normal. Stronger El Nino than it was forecasting last month by a little bit. Coolest member of the ensembles is at about 1C above normal.

I still say watch the area north of the Caribbean for most of the hurricane activity with the Gulf as a secondary development region. I think that Phil Klotzbach will predict around 8 named storms in his first full forecast for the season tomorrow morning at the conference I'm attending. Spoke with Dr Neil Frank this evening for a bit. He's still going strong and enjoying retirement.