Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON APR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN
ANTICYCLONIC JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN 88 KNOT
CORE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. THE JET
WILL PASS OVER HEAD ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS DIRECTLY OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COMPLEX DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE
LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
THROUGH THURSDAY A WEAK NE-SW TROUGH FORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES EAST AND
LEAVES A RESIDUAL RIDGE ALONG OR NEAR 30 NORTH UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A
NEW HIGH LEAVES THE COAST OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
BRINGS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT SLOWLY TURN
EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEST
MOISTURE IS PUNCTUATED BY SEVERAL DRIER AREAS PASSING BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR LOCAL CONVERGENCE PATTERNS IN AFTERNOON
HEATING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING A BOW WAKE AROUND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS A WHOLE MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO BEFORE NOON.
HEAVY SHOWERS THEN FORMED DOWNSTREAM FROM EL YUNQUE AND ALSO OVER
THE WESTERN END OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL SHORTLY AFTER NOON. BY 2
PM AST ANOTHER LINE DEVELOPED BETWEEN RINCON AND SOUTHERN LARES
MUNICIPALITY. THESE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TILL 06/2030Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE ENHANCED BY A
WEAK TROUGH THAT DRIFTED ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE WEST DURING
THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE INVERSION THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVEN
WHILE MOISTURE ALSO DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...LEAVING ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND
AND SOUTH OF MAYAGUEZ. MOISTURE THEN INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD END MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONGER SUN EACH DAY WILL
OFFSET THE FACT THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY HOVERS JUST
BELOW 1.5 INCHES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
UNTIL 22Z...ISL/SCT -SHRA ELSEWHERE. SOME OBSCD MTNS ACROSS PR
INTERIOR AND MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP PSBL BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING -SHRA ACRS THE ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL100 E-NE 10-20..


&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING 7 FOOT SEAS...SO HAVE
REMOVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WINDS
INCREASE TO A LIMITED EXTENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT WHERE FORCED AROUND THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 74 85 / 50 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST TUE APR 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
ISLANDS EFFECTS.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY OCASSIONALY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST TAF
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AFT 07/16Z...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CAUSING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST AT WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like a wet pattern will arrive to the NE Caribbean by next weekend and continue thru next week as a deep trough establishes in the area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG COASTAL AREAS WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND COMBINE WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LIMITED PM CONVECTION OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREAS FROM THE WEST...A
SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN. EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...
EVEN A WETTER AND MUCH UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED
AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SCT SHRA
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW OF THE SHRA AFFECTING THE STATIONS VERY BRIEFLY
AS THEY PASS. MORE PERSISTENT SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR
AFTER 08/16Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH POSSIBLE
TEMPO SHRA FOR TJMZ. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING 10-15KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 08/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710 THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 86 73 86 73 / 40 20 20 30

[msbee]

Oh how I hope we get some of those showers!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC JET FORMING JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH
TO ABOUT 22 NORTH WITH A CORE OF 92 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. THE JET WILL
WEAKEN TO 80 KNOTS AND RE-CROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND STALL OVER THE
EAST END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND MOVE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY WITH VERY WEAK FLOW AFTERWARD. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AREAS OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATED BY THIS PATTERN WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LESS SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST WERE
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM PONCE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A
PROMINENT STREAMER OFF OF SAINT CROIX WITH SLIGHT ACTIVITY
DOWNWIND FROM EL YUNQUE. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN GENERAL WITH MID LEVELS
REMAINING DRY EXCEPT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET / TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER THEN AND BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY EVEN WITH THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO INDICATED
FOR NEXT WEEK AS A WHOLE BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN WITH
A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING IN UPPER LEVELS WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SHRA AND MTN TOPS OBSCD THRU AT LEAST
23Z ACROSS WESTERN PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF
TJPS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLO FL100 AT 15-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SATURDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN ADDING A LITTLE SOUTHERLY COMPONENTUNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 40 40
STT 73 86 73 86 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Oh how I hope we get some of those showers!

Hi Barbara. Is St Marteen going thru a drought?

[cycloneye]

Something interesting occurred on this Wednesday in Puerto Rico as a big halo event occurred.

[msbee]

Oh how I hope we get some of those showers!

Hi Barbara. Is St Marteen going thru a drought?

Hi Luis How are you? Yes we have a bad drought here. We really haven't had a good rain in a long time. The hills are brown.

Beautiful picture of the halo event

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wet weather is instore for the weekend in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands.But more unsetteled weather is coming for next week so prepare for that and stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG COASTAL AREAS
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL TPW VALUES. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A SHARP
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN WITH SAT AS THE BEST
DAY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY.

SOME DRYING EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. BRIEF VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SCT SHRA EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFTER 09/16Z. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING 10-15KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 09/13Z
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 40 40 30
STT 86 74 86 76 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
ALL LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL TPW VALUES. EXPECT BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH DAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN
WITH SAT AS THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

SOME DRYING EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ TILL 09/23Z. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 09/19Z VCNTY
THE WRN CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WRN PR WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND SCT
AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL ARND 10/00Z. WINDS ALF ESE 10 TO 20
KT UP THRU FL130.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE
INDICATING SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS AT 15-17 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 85 76 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 75 85 75 85 / 50 50 40 40

[Gustywind]

Something interesting occurred on this Wednesday in Puerto Rico as a big halo event occurred.

Very nice pic!!!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE-WED. SURFACE
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT TODAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UNDER THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO
EACH DAY. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED MON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. TROUGH ALOFT WILL
THEN DEVELOP TUE-WED WITH BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
TUE. THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFINESS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10/14Z WITH
SCT SHRA CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA AT THE STATIONS POSSIBLE. CIGS AT AROUND FL050-070 EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH LOWER CIGS BRIEFLY WITH THE SHRA. AFT
10/17Z...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE VCTS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AS IT AFFECTS THE STATION. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 76 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING FRESH TRADE
WINDS. BY MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
PUERTO RICO AND STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNDAY
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. FOR SUN NIGHT/ EARLY MON
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS LIMITING AEREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND INTENSITY.
THEN ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC THRU THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA OVER INTERIOR PR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM TISX AND TIST
WILL CONT THRU AT LEAST 10/22Z BFR WEAKENING WITH MVFR LCLY IFR FOR
CIGS AND VSBYS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLD TSRA PSBL WRN PR. AFT
11/02Z VFR AND IMPROVING CONDS WITH BRIEF MVFR ONLY AT TNCM OR TKPK.
WINDS ALF ESE 10 TO 20 KT THRU FL080.


&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WATERS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT EAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 76 86 / 30 40 30 30
STT 75 85 76 85 / 30 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Another great halo photo in Puerto Rico on April 9.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING
FRESH TRADE WINDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
TODAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE USVI SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY FOR PR AND THE USVI.

FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL
RESULT ONCE AGAIN IN BRIEF SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. NO MAJOR FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR
INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE
MODEL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...HOWEVER THE THETA-E FOR THAT
SAME TIME IS MODEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND HIGHER ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHICH IT IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR EAST. SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PREVAILING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS AND THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY... WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ IN SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 11/17Z AND 11/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 85 75 / 20 20 20 20

[msbee]

Another great halo photo in Puerto Rico on April 9.

wow, stunning picture! we saw that here too but I did not have my camera.
can you explain this phenomenon, Luis?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING
FRESH TRADE WINDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ENJOYED PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. FOR
TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. .HOWEVER...BY MID NEXT WEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.AT THIS TIME...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH...WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL 11/22Z AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER 11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Still watching what will transpire with the big trough that will develop later this week so stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING FRESH TRADE WINDS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY
MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND SO FAR THE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN AS EXPECTED. EASTERN PR...THE LOCAL
WATERS...AND THE USVI HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR TODAY IF VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A PATCH
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN. EVEN THOUGH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS MODEST...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THE
TIME OF MAX HEATING...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT BUT STILL
THERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF THE SAN JUAN METRO OBSERVING
RAINFALL DUE TO A DEVELOPING STREAMER FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN
FOREST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL
WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN
PR IN THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR...DEPENDING ON THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW AND AREA OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK. THE GFS MODEL NOW HAS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...THIS MEANS
THAT THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE FORECAST AS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AS THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS VERY DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE MODEL CHANGED RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOLUTION
IT GAVE YESTERDAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE AT
BEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY FLOOD-CAUSING RAINFALL. BUT LIKE MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MODEL
WAS SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT YESTERDAY...WOULD LIKE MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK. THE GFS MODEL NOW HAS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...THIS MEANS
THAT THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE FORECAST AS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AS THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS VERY DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE MODEL CHANGED RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOLUTION
IT GAVE YESTERDAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE AT
BEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY FLOOD-CAUSING RAINFALL. BUT LIKE MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MODEL
WAS SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT YESTERDAY...WOULD LIKE MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY
WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ AND IST IN THE
MORNING. AFT 12/17Z SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA AND MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS AT JMZ/JBQ THROUGH 12/22Z. SFC
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E SE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 75 85 77 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE U.S. EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND WILL DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERATING FRESH TRADE WINDS. BY MID WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TJSJ 12/12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.43
INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER SURFACE HIH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
1.8 BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AT
LEAST 12/22Z AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROAD MEAN TROF OVER THE ATLC AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGOUT THE WEEK. ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT FROM NE TO SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TODAY. AFTER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH PUSHES
EAST THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DRYING TREND TUE AND WED. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU BUT
MODELS MAINTAIN MID-LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONGER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRYER THAN NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NCM/IST AND
EASTERN PR TERMINALS BUT GENERALLY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT OVER WESTERN PR...AREAS OF OBSCD MTNS AND POSBL
MVFR AT TJMZ/TJBQ. WIND BLO FL100 E 13-21 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS ATLC SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. SEAS UP TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN REMAIN 3-5
FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI WHILE SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUE AND ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN AREA
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE DRYING MOST INTENSE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 76 / 20 10 10 10
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 10