Texas Spring-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Stay safe tonight guys, dont take these for granted.

[Brent]

Day 1 only has 2% tornado but the Day 2 for Friday mentions this:

AS
THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSES BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION MAY BE AIDED BY THE INCREASED
LIFT AND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS...A STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR FROM THE
I-35 CORRIDOR ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

[TheProfessor]

Hmm... If nothing happens Friday it looks like we could be doing it all over again on Monday, it already has an enhanced threat, it's still days away so it could change.

[dhweather]

Hmmm.

From Larry Cosgrove, eight minutes ago on his Facebook page:

"After looking at the latest computer model forecasts, all that needs to be said is...

....prayers for North Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, plus northern and central Mississippi. If you are into severe weather, start your engines."

Then he added, in response to someone's question about where and when, "This will be ugly, trust me..."

Seems a bit dramatic? I do not envision one PDS watch being issued today. Sure there will likely be severe weather, but that seems like he is adding hype in. Maybe its just me.

Has anyone asked Larry about this and how "ugly" it was? Hyping events that do not happen leads to the "chicken little" syndrome.

[gboudx]

Maybe his prayers were answered?

[SouthernMet]

I think the context of Cosgrove's post was misquoted. He has been warning about tomorrow and said it could be "far worse", I think he's right.

@Dhweather, it hasn't happened yet.

[TheProfessor]

that's what I was thinking because the locations he included with Texas yesterday were not under a threat yesterday.

[aggiecutter]

2.25 inches of rain in Texarkana last night, with no severe weather at all. As a matter of fact, it only thundered once or twice.

[Shoshana]

I'm exhausted and nothing has even happened.

[Ntxw]

Mist seems to be the thing here this morning. Dense cloud deck, streamers coming from old Mexico courtesy of the STJ.

On another note El Nino is strengthening, two year Nino we are in transition to a moderate event with weekly readings about to cross 1C. Weather pattern is consistent, rain chances every few days and for every day or two of full sun is countered by several more days of clouds and wet conditions. Likely to intensify as the global AAM begins to rise and the El Nino controlling global weather once again.

[Texas Snowman]

Clearly Cosgrove and others are tuned into tomorrow's severe weather threat. As for yesterday, I went back and looked at his original post. When someone asked when?, Larry said "Today into tomorrow, then Friday into Saturday."

Bottom line, as many pointed out here yesterday before anything had happened, the DFW area and North Texas escaped any real severe weather yesterday evening and overnight, except for more drought busting rains that keep pushing lake levels up.

At my home, we experienced a couple of rounds of lightning and thunder, a brief bout of small hail and more beneficial rainfall (Austin College's weather station west of Sherman is sitting at 5.98 inches for the month of April).

Fortunately, the big hail out west (up to baseball size), the hail out west that covered the ground several inches deep and the tornado warnings that kept coming deep into the night never threatened DFW or my portion of North Texas.

[SouthernMet]

Just to reinterate,

"After looking at the latest computer model forecasts, all that needs to be said is...

....prayers for North Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, plus northern and central Mississippi. If you are into severe weather, start your engines."

That clearly wasn't about yesterday. ARKLATX was never suppose to be in the action yesterday.

[weatherdude1108]

Mist seems to be the thing here this morning. Dense cloud deck, streamers coming from old Mexico courtesy of the STJ.

On another note El Nino is strengthening, two year Nino we are in transition to a moderate event with weekly readings about to cross 1C. Weather pattern is consistent, rain chances every few days and for every day or two of full sun is countered by several more days of clouds and wet conditions. Likely to intensify as the global AAM begins to rise and the El Nino controlling global weather once again.

I was just thinking about El Nino. Reminds me of a point. Sometime way back when, someone mentioned (not sure if you or someone else) about El Nino/warm ENSO versus La Nina/cold ENSO and severe weather outbreaks.

I think I remember that El Nino/warm ENSO patterns tend to mitigate (lessen) the severe weather potential/threat, whereas La Nina/cold ENSO tends to enhance the severe weather threat? Is that correct? Just wondering. Thanks in advance.

Edit: I found a link explaining it.:
http://www.livescience.com/50149-el-nin ... adoes.html

[Ntxw]

Mist seems to be the thing here this morning. Dense cloud deck, streamers coming from old Mexico courtesy of the STJ.

On another note El Nino is strengthening, two year Nino we are in transition to a moderate event with weekly readings about to cross 1C. Weather pattern is consistent, rain chances every few days and for every day or two of full sun is countered by several more days of clouds and wet conditions. Likely to intensify as the global AAM begins to rise and the El Nino controlling global weather once again.

I was just thinking about El Nino. Reminds me of a point. Sometime way back when, someone mentioned (not sure if you or someone else) about El Nino/warm ENSO versus La Nina/cold ENSO and severe weather outbreaks.

I think I remember that El Nino/warm ENSO patterns tend to mitigate (lessen) the severe weather potential/threat, whereas La Nina/cold ENSO tends to enhance the severe weather threat? Is that correct? Just wondering. Thanks in advance.

Edit: I found a link explaining it.:
http://www.livescience.com/50149-el-nin ... adoes.html

That is correct La Nina's promote severe weather outbreaks. Some of the big outbreaks such as 1974, 1999, 2008, 2011 were La Ninas. Quantities of tornado's increase significantly compared to El Nino.

[gpsnowman]

Some activity south of Brownwood but not much else west. Sun has come out here in GP but no blue sky, very weird. For my area last night was a dud so maybe tonight will be eventful. Rain, rain, come on rain.

[gpsnowman]

To my untrained mind, if this type of pattern persists into May with warming normal temps, we could be in for a quite a show next month. Let's get all the rain while we can before summer death sets in. Yuck. It seems to me that persistent cloud cover has, as well as many other factors, kept temps down preventing solid lines of storms from penetrating DFW. It has been jacket weather early in the morning for awhile now. April can do that though. Just hope is doesn't rain for the Byron Nelson in late May. Got tickets for the Saturday round. Hopefully Jordan Spieth is still in the hunt.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley:

"Strong to possibly severe storms are expected to approach the DFW area from the southwest later today and evening. Conditions will be marginal for severe weather development so a SLIGHT risk has been issued for much of north Texas as these storms track to the northeast. The better coverage of severe storms will be on Friday.

Stay tuned for updates, and I will try to avoid the errors in the timing and the placement of the severe weather that plagued us forecasters yesterday!"

[dhweather]

[TheProfessor]

If we don't have morning convection that inhibits instability then tomorrow could be interesting.

[Texas Snowman]

A snippet from Fort Worth AFD this afternoon. Can you say El Nino?

-----

"
LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY."