ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#6001 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon May 11, 2015 9:07 am

Just remembered my forecast from last year:

I just noticed something, something that may mean an El Niño would occur. Don't be fooled by the cooling you see now, it was predicted months ago consistently by the CFSv2 model. The warm massive pool you saw months ago has nearly dissipated, yes that is true. But what is happening now is a likely warm phase or downwelling over the West part of the CPAC and a part of the previous record-breaking warm pool is growing in size, and is connecting with another warmer pool to the west. That may push the cool pool to the east to surface, and therefore should see another cooling over Niño 3 and 1+2 and may be mistaken for a Modoki El Niño. Afterwards, there would be a big, long round of warming that would lead to a declaration of the 2014-15 El Niño event and would start and end late. That is based on the prediction of the model that showed cooling for these months, and is also showing a moderate to strong El Niño. The SOI for the past 3 to 4 weeks (30-day) has been consistently negative, and that may also be an evidence of the atmosphere starting to cooperate and coincide with the possible El Niño. I could also see a chance of a longer event. However, I am not WANTING an El Niño to occur.
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#6002 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon May 11, 2015 10:25 pm

ONI is at +0.6C because MAM isn't finished yet, and that is just FMA data. Actual ONI for April is at +0.79C according to an article made by CPC via their climate blog.
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Re: CPC 5/11/15 update has El Nino at +1.0C / ONI at +0.6C

#6003 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue May 12, 2015 1:47 am

BOM declares El Niño

Image

El Niño in the tropical Pacific

Issued on 12 May 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niño is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.
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Re: CPC 5/11/15 update has El Nino at +1.0C / ONI at +0.6C

#6004 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue May 12, 2015 4:30 am

JMA declares El Niño

El Niño Outlook
( May 2015 - November 2015 )

Last Updated: 12 May 2015
( Next update will be on 10 June 2015 )


El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2015.
[El Niño / La Niña]
An El Niño event, which has been lasting since the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014, weakened in winter 2015. This event is likely to be redeveloping in spring. In April 2015, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.8°C (Table and Fig.1). Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or slightly above +0.5°C for nine consecutive months ending in February. SSTs were above normal in most regions of the equatorial Pacific in April (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activities were above normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere were below normal in the central part (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those observed during the past El Niño events. Based on the above observations, it is likely that El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters, which were observed in April in the equatorial Pacific, will tend to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part in the months ahead. The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal during the prediction period (Fig.9). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be below normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.10).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal or above normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.11).

[Impacts]

The influence of El Niño conditions on the climate over Japan was not clear in April 2015.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produc ... index.html.

The influence of El Niño conditions on the world climate was not clear in April 2015.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produc ... /index.htm.
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#6005 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue May 12, 2015 4:35 am

JMA El Niño Forecast [Niño 3]

Image
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Re: ENSO: BoM declares officially El Nino

#6006 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 12, 2015 6:20 am

Link to BoM ENSO Wrap-Up.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO: BoM declares officially El Nino

#6007 Postby lukem » Tue May 12, 2015 9:13 am

:uarrow: Agreed. I've been reading this thread daily for the last year and have learned so much about El Nino. Can't thank you enough Ntxw for the knowledge you provide on not only ENSO but Texas weather as well.
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Re: ENSO: BoM declares officially El Nino

#6008 Postby Dean_175 » Tue May 12, 2015 1:31 pm

lukem wrote::uarrow: Agreed. I've been reading this thread daily for the last year and have learned so much about El Nino. Can't thank you enough Ntxw for the knowledge you provide on not only ENSO but Texas weather as well.


For those of you that want to learn more about ENSO- I would recommend reading "Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation" by Allan Clarke. First good half of the book covers equatorial waves/equatorial dynamics, while the rest covers the nature of atmosphere/ocean coupling and mechanisms of the seasonal nature of ENSO events. It is one of the best books written on the subject.
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Re: ENSO: BoM declares officially El Nino

#6009 Postby lukem » Tue May 12, 2015 5:33 pm

Dean_175 wrote:
lukem wrote::uarrow: Agreed. I've been reading this thread daily for the last year and have learned so much about El Nino. Can't thank you enough Ntxw for the knowledge you provide on not only ENSO but Texas weather as well.


For those of you that want to learn more about ENSO- I would recommend reading "Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation" by Allan Clarke. First good half of the book covers equatorial waves/equatorial dynamics, while the rest covers the nature of atmosphere/ocean coupling and mechanisms of the seasonal nature of ENSO events. It is one of the best books written on the subject.


Thanks for the referral...I will definitely grab a copy.
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#6010 Postby Dean_175 » Tue May 12, 2015 6:21 pm

Though the April SOI was up to -3.08 from March, the Equatorial SOI (ESOI) for April went down further to -1.1. Regular SOI is still tanking pretty good with last several days below -35 and 30 day average is now at -10.11

Nino3.4 dailies have cooled a bit to just under 0.9, but the cooling seems to have stopped and looks like it has been warming back up past few days.The next weekly could very well be under 0.9C.
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Re: El Nino

#6011 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 13, 2015 8:56 am

spiral wrote:Excellent job by Ntxw thanks for sharing your vast knowledge on this phenomenon. It's a shame you never got to post the official El Nino declaration after your endless work on this thread.


lukem wrote::uarrow: Agreed. I've been reading this thread daily for the last year and have learned so much about El Nino. Can't thank you enough Ntxw for the knowledge you provide on not only ENSO but Texas weather as well.


I'm learning this along with you guys as well, just sharing everything I'm reading and putting together from various papers and stuff NOAA puts out that people miss. And of course the great sites from scientists/meteorologist who puts out modelling data that is often tough to find for ENSO. Those are the real folks who puts real effort. It amazes me one of the largest weather phenomenon on the planet is one of the least well tracked. Only last year did NOAA decide to repair the limited buoys available that have now given us crisp data from the Pacific.

April PDO just came out at 1.44, the downward trend continues however still very high. Highest since 1996 for the month.
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Re: ENSO Updates: April PDO data was at +1.44

#6012 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2015 6:15 pm

This warm pool compares very good with the 1997 one.

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#6013 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 14, 2015 3:20 am

Comparison between last year's and this year's warm pools show a big difference: this one is growing.

Image

Similar WWB to 1997

Image
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Re: CPC 5/14/15 update=90% of El Nino by Summer

#6014 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2015 8:17 am

CPC May 14 monthly update upgrades El Nino chances to 90% that continues thru Summer and greater than 80% for the rest of 2015.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory




Synopsis: There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html


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Re: CPC 5/14/15 update=90% of El Nino to continue thru Summer

#6015 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2015 10:54 am


Eric Blake @EricBlake12
· 58m 58 minutes ago
Not going to get a sig upwelling Kelvin wave without low-level ely anoms. In fact opposite is forecast #elnino

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#6016 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 14, 2015 11:01 am

According to the CPC, the 2015-16 El Niño has strengthened from a weak to weak to moderate El Niño. Anomalies are now above +1.0C for the past 3-4 weeks. Although, some of CPC's graphics in the latest Monthly Bulletin have not yet been updated.
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Re: CPC 5/14/15 update=90% of El Nino to continue thru Summer

#6017 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2015 11:16 am

Interesting CPC blog about what they expect will happen with El Nino.


http://climate.gov/news-features/blogs/ ... igh-school
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#6018 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 14, 2015 11:25 am

:uarrow: The most important thing to take from that blog and recent updates is that this El Nino is coupled. Both the atmosphere and Ocean is running the show, each intensifying the other. This El Nino has not peaked, very rarely do they peak this early it will be fall or winter and a strong Nino is quite likely.

The next warm pool is already pushing down in the WPAC from the recent WWB, we can see it via the shrinking cool anomalies down under near the dateline per buoys. The CFSv2 showing a renewed large warm pool by June is verifying.

Buoy subsurface animation
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Re: CPC 5/14/15 update=90% of El Nino to continue thru Summer

#6019 Postby Dean_175 » Thu May 14, 2015 11:47 am

Nino3.4 is now again above 1.0. After dropping to 0.9 for a few days, it is back up to 1.05 and warming. Could this be the start of the "surge" in nino3.4 anomalies that CFS has been predicting to happen this month?

On the other hand , although all nino region daily anomalies are holding on, the SST pattern looks like the east pacific has cooled a bit in the past week?
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Re: CPC 5/14/15 update=90% of El Nino to continue thru Summer

#6020 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2015 1:25 pm

Dr Bob Henson in the Dr Jeff Masters blog made a good analysis about the CPC May update.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #commentop
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