Texas Spring-2015

[weatherdude1108]

I got woken up by the second round of storms between 3 and 4 am this morning. I'll lcheck gauge later. NWS EWX had a tweet on Medina Lake.

US National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio Texas
Medina Lake has risen 22 feet in just 7 hours! ‪#‎txwx‬

[TheProfessor]

My Family is fine, we're on the third floor of our hotel.not sure how we s 're going to get home though.

[wxman57]

OK, NOW can we have a few weeks of dry (drier) weather? Enough rain everyone? We have a dam threatening to break in Montgomery County. The San Antonio riverwalk is flooding. The Trinity River near D-FW is flooding. I-35 is closed both ways near San Marcos. Bridges are being washed away. I'm not looking for another 2011, just maybe "normal" afternoon thunderstorms here and there a few times a week that drop an average of an inch of rain each week.

Such a strong El Nino that appears to be developing may result in a quite stormy west coast by this fall/winter. California may be begging for dry weather before next winter is over...

[Ntxw]

Spillway cam from KXII shows Texoma has crossed over the spillway, for only the fourth time in it's history.

http://www.kxii.com/livestream

We can now speak of 2015 rains in context with 1957, 1990, and 2007.

[weatherdude1108]

2.35 inches since 5pm yesterday at my place. I have lost count over the month. I would say approaching 10 inches for the month in my yard.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSFortWorth: As of 8:20am total rain for May at DFW was 11.37" making it 4th wettest May on record (and still raining). Wettest was 1982 (13.66"). #dfwwx

[Ntxw]

@NWSFortWorth: As of 8:20am total rain for May at DFW was 11.37" making it 4th wettest May on record (and still raining). Wettest was 1982 (13.66"). #dfwwx

Heavy rain event and possible severe weather Memorial day, evening, with another 1-3 inches possible.

Wettest Mays

1. 13.66 -1982
2. 12.64 -1957
3. 12.09 -1946
4. 11.37 -2015*
5. 10.71 -1914

[gboudx]

You guys covered this last night, but here's jeffs update on Blanco river. Astonishing.

***Historical and catastrophic flooding ongoing along the Blanco River at Wimberley and San Marcos Texas.***

***Flash Flood Emergency in effect for Hays County and the Blanco River.***

Overnight rainfall of up to 11.3 inches above Wimberley on the headwaters of the Blanco River has resulted in a tremendous flash flood down the river early this morning (in the middle of the night)

At Wimberley the river rose over 30 ft in less than 3 hours and is currently. The river crested at 40.2ft (Flood Stage is 13 ft). Previous record flood level was 33.3 ft (86 years old). Since there has been no gage report since 100am…it is likely the USGS has been washed away.

Law enforcement is estimating at least 350 homes along the river have been inundated some to their rooftops…some have been completely washed away. Evacuations and rescues are underway in both San Marcos and Wimberley and mandatory evacuations have been ordered for the Blanco River downstream in Caldwell County. Mainlanes of I-35 at the river are flooded and impassable.

This is a life threatening flash flood….seek higher ground immediately to save your life!

[TheProfessor]

my family might be exiting San Antonio early today when 35 opens up, we fear that if more rain falls that we might get trapped here longer than what we want.

[Ntxw]

Be careful and have an alternate route planned. There are numerous creeks and rivers we dont even realize is there travelling I-35 that may not get the media attention unless they effect a big town like San Marcos. Lots of cresting waterways up and down that interstate

[TheProfessor]

yeah I've already been talking about alternate road ways with my dad.

[Ntxw]

Both the GFS and Euro are still advertising a potential EPAC hurricane. Doesnt have to make landfall to effect us as lots of potential moisture is drawn up. Keep that in mind later this week.

[gboudx]

More updates from jeff:

Historic river flash flood continues down the Blanco and now San Marcos Rivers.

State of Emergency has been declared for Hays County and Caldwell County.

Flash Flood Emergency remains in effect for the Blanco and San Marcos Rivers.

Flash flood on the Blanco River has passed San Marcos and is reaching the confluence of the San Marcos River. Mandatory evacuation order in in effect for all residents along the San Marcos River in Caldwell County. Historically devastating flooding has occurred along the entire Blanco River watershed overnight. Record crest were recorded at Wimberley before the USGS gage was destroyed…this record crest was set in 1929! At least 350 homes have been flooded and hundreds of residents rescued from rooftops. Rescue operations continue from rooftops around San Marcos with an many as 400 persons in shelters.

The San Marcos River will rise to levels about 2-3 ft below its historic record flood at Lulling this afternoon.

ATXFLOODS.org is currently showing 208 low water crossing flooded across C TX.

Locally:
Large band of fast moving thunderstorms…some producing wind damage…is move east of SE TX. This complex extends well southward over the western Gulf of Mexico. Air mass over SE TX should be stabilized from the morning convection and lack of sustained moisture inflow being ingested into the offshore complex. Meso scale models including the TX TECH WRF show attempts at new storms developing along a left over boundary of some sort over the coastal counties late this morning. I have my doubts that this boundary is actually there since I can’t find it on surface observation nor radar data. The models are likely hinting at the returning moisture intersecting a surface or 850mb boundary. This is a good setup for additional storms and heavy rainfall…but I am not sure the models are fully grasping the offshore activity. The offshore activity will have to weaken before southerly low level flow and moisture advection can be re-established. Hence the forecast for today is of low confidence.

Air mass is still generally extremely moist and as seen overnight between Blanco and Wimberley TX (11.30 inches of rainfall) intense short term rainfall rates are possible.

Other model guidance is trying to develop storms this evening from SW LA moving toward the SW which I find suspect as well.

The next strong upper level disturbance will approach the area Monday afternoon and another large thunderstorm complex will likely be the result. Will favor areas along and N of US 59 at the most threat for this complex with both excessive rainfall and possibly damaging winds.

Additional Rainfall:
Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches will be possible. With grounds saturated and rivers near or above flood stage…flooding is almost certain with more rainfall. Main concerns will be cell training of excessive short term rainfall rates.

Extended:
Looks like the area will get a brief break from rainfall Wednesday and Thursday before yet another large upper level storm system moves into the SW US next Friday-weekend. Additional bouts of flooding rainfall may accompany this system as well especially if a forecasted EPAC tropical cyclone moves toward the coast of western Mexico and its moisture becomes entrained in the upper level trough and brought across TX.

Hydro:

Flash Flood Emergency: Blanco River and San Marcos River

Tremendous flood wave on the Blanco River with empty into the San Marcos River and then the Guadalupe River above Gonzales, TX. Major flooding is forecast along the Guadalupe River from above Gonzales TX to below Victoria, TX this week.

Flood Warning:
Entire Trinity River watershed
Pedernales River
Medina River
San Antonio River
San Gabriel River
Frio River
Sabinal River
Nueces River
Neches River
Sabine River

Visit http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/ for flood forecast and crest information.

Extremely serious…potentially life threatening…river flash flood

Record flood wave generated on the Blanco and San Marcos Rivers will enter the Guadalupe River early Monday.

Major flooding is forecasted at both Gonzales, TX and Cuero, TX requiring evacuations. Hundreds of homes will be flooded…some to the rooftops along the river. River will be over a mile wide north of Gonzales TX.

Flood Impacts at Gonzalez, TX

Flow reaches the floor of the old power plant and to the slab of the electric plant. Water is several feet deep in the baseball and concession buildings in the city park. Flooding is several miles wide in the flood plain just northwest of Gonzales. Flow approaches lower homes in the Tinsley Creek flood plain in Gonzales as the Guadalupe River backs up. Any flow down Tinsley Creek over the backflow can flood homes.

Major flooding closes Highways 183, 97 and Farm to Market 108. Runoff down Tinsley Creek in Gonzales added to the Guadalupe River backwater can flood lowest homes near the creek. Secondary roads and streets near the river are flooded and dangerous to motorists.

Flood Impacts at Cuero TX:

Massive flooding is occurring in the River Oaks, River Haven, and Cypress Valley subdivisions ten miles south of Cuero near Thomaston. Over one hundred homes are flooded up to nine feet requiring the evacuation of hundreds of people. All roads into Cuero are closed except Highway 87 which also closes several miles south of Cuero. The old CP&L plant floods. Hundreds of livestock in the area are cut off and potentially drowned. Flow threatens to pass across the flood plain into Gholke Creek and Cuero.

Major lowland flooding reaches tens of homes downstream near Thomaston in the River Oaks, River Haven and Cypress Valley subdivisions. Approaches to all bridges into Cuero close except Highway 87. The old CP&L plant floods and water reaches the transformer. Livestock are cut off and potenitally drowned.

[Shoshana]

I started watching our rain gauge when we got 4.5" on May 5. So far we have recorded 12.9 " since then, 2.9" since Friday. I don't know how much rain we had in May before I started recording it. Our yard is soggy to say the least but since we are on a hill, no flooding.

So glad we picked a house out of the flood plain!

[Annie Oakley]

Caldwell County Office of Emergency Management Official Twitter Account -

https://twitter.com/cctxoem

Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/CCTXOEM?fref=photo

[Shoshana]

:uarrow: yeah I've already been talking about alternate road ways with my dad.

Safest staying on I 35 even with slowdowns and delays. It's going to be the most patrolled and least likely to flood. Have a safe trip!

[gboudx]

Steve McCauleys latest update concerning Memorial Day. Doesn't sound good.

We have a temporary break in the stormy weather as the latest wave of rain moves to the northeast, but our next round is already on the way. But sinking air will be pushing into north Texas late this afternoon, and that will shut down the rain for the evening.

The atmosphere will recover for Memorial Day and will become extremely unstable by the afternoon. At the same time, a vigorous upper-level disturbance will push in from the southwest.

The disturbance is currently over southern California and is relatively weak with its POSITIVE TILT orientation. But as it rounds the bottom of a curved path, it will become very strong - assuming a NEGATIVE TILT orientation - by Monday afternoon as it moves into north Texas. This moving on top of a highly unstable atmosphere will lead to explosive thunderstorm development with all modes of severe weather likely.

The storms that develop to our west tomorrow afternoon will eventually merge into a very large cluster that will bring widespread flooding and damaging winds to much of north and east Texas.

Stay alert for this potentially damaging weather event. You will NOT want to be caught on area lakes as this storm cluster blasts through in the afternoon and evening.

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]:uarrow: We are living through something very unusual. Years from now we'll look back reading NWS articles about the Flood of 2015. When dramatic drought and extremely low lake levels in the matter of months quickly went the other way. April broke way and May the skies opened and relentlessly rained for days on end. Near stage 5 restrictions in the Falls to evacuating thousands of homes in the very place that was dry as a bone. Will be quite a read.[/qu



and remember 2011....

[utpmg]

OK, NOW can we have a few weeks of dry (drier) weather? Enough rain everyone? We have a dam threatening to break in Montgomery County. The San Antonio riverwalk is flooding. The Trinity River near D-FW is flooding. I-35 is closed both ways near San Marcos. Bridges are being washed away. I'm not looking for another 2011, just maybe "normal" afternoon thunderstorms here and there a few times a week that drop an average of an inch of rain each week.

Such a strong El Nino that appears to be developing may result in a quite stormy west coast by this fall/winter. California may be begging for dry weather before next winter is over...

Still need more, please; Travis and Buchanan have a long way to go. As long as it stays in the Colorado watershed and spares everyone else.

[Tireman4]

Travis at 50 percent. Long way to go, but better than it has been