2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,Tropical Wave will be the trigger.

4:05 PM UTC discussion:

LOOKING AHEAD...LOW PRES RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR 10N110W
AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT
DRIFTS TO THE WNW.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFs shows two potent hurricanes, one OTS (0/50) and one near MX (16 days out).

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of the
system after mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of the
system after mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS bombs it out again and shows a MAJOR 945 MB cane while the ECMWF has trended weaker by about 10MBs from yesterday's runs (what is wrong with the GFS?):

[cycloneye]

Low pressure will form very soon from this convection complex.

[Yellow Evan]

06Z GFS bombs it out again and shows a MAJOR 945 MB cane while the ECMWF has trended weaker by about 10MBs from yesterday's runs (what is wrong with the GFS?):

http://i.imgur.com/pxc9fbq.png

http://i.imgur.com/tzO0dX4.png

Nothing wrong with the GFS. Keep in mind the ECMWF resolution is lower than the GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of the
system after mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

12z GFS going very strong. Down to 981 mbs in only 96 hours.

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye, by 144 hours, the GFS has this down to 945MB:

[cycloneye]

Further down to 936 mbs in 156 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda 2.0 maybe?

[tolakram]

Euro 993MB at 240 hours but it's basically sitting still and weakening.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC shows a ECMWF-like version of 0/60, but shows a system between 91E and 0/60 that might have to be added to the TWO.

[cycloneye]

What about 10/70?

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

For entertainment purposes only, the CFS has 15 EPAC storms this year by September.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CcN7QM ... e=youtu.be

[cycloneye]

From the 22:05 UTC discussion:

LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION
IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY
LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW
TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

[Yellow Evan]

Possible E shift in models? Don't be surprised, based on history in these kind of situations.



Support for long range tropical cyclone still there.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS much weaker.