Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

To be fair, the maps above are a comparison between deterministic runs (GEM, ECMWF) and the ensemble-mean of the GEFS ensemble. Sorry if this is nitpicking.

It does look like there is decent consensus that there will be a trough of low pressure in the Western Caribbean in the 6-7 day time frame that will move out of the Caribbean into either the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the southwest Atlantic. As usual this time of year, the amount of shear will be a major factor. Most of the models show a strong shear axis located to the north and northwest of whatever comes out of the Caribbean. How this impacts development prospects is not yet knowable with anything near certainty.

BigA I thought the GFS operational was also showing a NW Carib / GOM system but looks like it is out in the Atlantic too similar to the ECMWF, so here is the map for true comparison amongst the operational guidance:

[floridasun78]

look if low form will near state fl

[WPBWeather]

Yes, its seems the NHC (Eric Blake), JB and others agree that something is coming near FL.

[jlauderdal]

Another season, another south florida hit...been a long time and until such time as it materializes we will go with the trend. GFS was horrible most of the winter so giving that less weight then last hurricane season and that weight was a featherweight. Furthermore, A June sofla hit would really be unusual as would the gfs being correct this far out...its simple math, when you add it all up it seems very very unlikely.

[sunnyday]

IF there is a SoFla hit, when should it be?
Thank you for the info.

[WPBWeather]

Well, we can all see what happens next week. One guess is as good as another at this point.

[wxman57]

South Florida hit? Weak low and a little rain isn't much of a "hit".

[floridasun78]

Yes, its seems the NHC (Eric Blake) not facebook too, JB and others agree that something is coming near FL.

were their say that? not on nhc site from Eric Blake and did jb say it on facdebook?

[Yellow Evan]

Yes, its seems the NHC (Eric Blake), JB and others agree that something is coming near FL.

were their say that? not on nhc site from Eric Blake and did jb say it on facdebook?

Twitter.

[Florida1118]

I don't see a whole lot coming from this "system". It's still hundreds of hours out, and the GFS barely has a low make an appearance, and the basin in early June isn't great condition wise. Things could change, but I don't see anything lol.


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[floridasun78]

Yes, its seems the NHC (Eric Blake), JB and others agree that something is coming near FL.

were their say that? not on nhc site from Eric Blake and did jb say it on facdebook?

Twitter.

i saw Eric Blake i dont see about about low i cannot find jb twitter

[WPBWeather]

were their say that? not on nhc site from Eric Blake and did jb say it on facdebook?[/quote]

Twitter.[/quote]
i saw Eric Blake i dont see about about low i cannot find jb twitter[/quote]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour agoUnlike earlier bogus GFS fcsts, large-scale forcing & other models support a real WAtlc/GOM TC chance in a week or so.


JB on Weatherbell.com

[NDG]

Even if there is no development out of this, it is at least looking like a pattern change coming for FL to turn wetter and for TX to catch a break from the heavy rains.
Well needed for both States this possible pattern change.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows a weak stretched out low/trough developing in the NW Caribbean and getting ejected NNE. Could be some beneficial rains for SE Florida as it has been very dry with the persistent east wind flow pattern, as long as the low doesn't form east of Florida in which case it will just make things drier here being on the west side of the low.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro agrees with the GFS - very weak low developing near southern Florida next Wed/Thu becomes a slightly stronger (but weak) low east of the Carolinas next weekend.

[Alyono]

as for the Gulf, that idea is absurd. A weak TS is not going to survive the cross over as the models had been indicating. 0Z CMC and EC have dropped that idea, sensibly

[cycloneye]

12z EC likes the crossover now more bullish in GOM.

[wxman57]

Euro has winds at 40 kts at day 10, but it tends to under-forecast wind speeds. Something to keep an eye on next week. Last week's forecast for storms this weekend near the Bahamas aren't working out so well...

[Hammy]

Last week's forecast for storms this weekend near the Bahamas aren't working out so well...

I don't think the Euro ever had much more than a broad area of low pressure east of the Carolinas or Florida, which most recent runs are showing as well (albeit not looking tropical)

as for the Gulf, that idea is absurd. A weak TS is not going to survive the cross over as the models had been indicating. 0Z CMC and EC have dropped that idea, sensibly

We did have a tropical depression in 2010 that crossed into the BoC and became Hermine.

Lets see what happens over the next few days, if it suddenly vanishes from the run about the 5-7 day mark, it could mean development with the Euro going into its usual medium range indecisiveness.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EC likes the crossover now more bullish in GOM.

Looks Subtropical to me with the strongest winds further away from the center?