ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

I will not be surprised if they decide to classify this as a TD at the next bulletin, for the oil companies and other companies to decide what they need to do with their employees and all the platforms.

Not if they cant find a LLC as it wouldn't qualify as a tropical cyclone

[Alyono]

I will not be surprised if they decide to classify this as a TD at the next bulletin, for the oil companies and other companies to decide what they need to do with their employees and all the platforms.

the offshore operators use private weather services

[wxman57]

The decision point for offshore operators was yesterday. Today will be the last full day for helicopter flying operations across the NW Gulf. They don't fly/evacuate at night and they don't fly once the squalls reach their platforms in the deepwater areas.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like a TD today. Probably by noon tomorrow. Maybe a TS tomorrow afternoon. Convection is currently too disorganized and LLC is not well-defined (or there yet).

[Hammy]

Why isn't the plane going any further south or east? That's where the westerly flow appears to be but they turned around before reaching it.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure so far found is 1007.4 mbs.

[Hurricaneman]

I would check that area 150 miles north of Cancun as it has a strong MLC but I wonder if there's a LLC there and what the recon is chasing is an eddy

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[cycloneye]

1006.8 mbs now the lowest.

[SouthDadeFish]

Many reports of light westerly winds. Looks like there is a very broad LLC. Not well-organized enough to be classified yet, but slowly getting there.

[cycloneye]

Light west wind.

Peak 10-second Wind: 7 kt at 284°

[cycloneye]

Faint change of direction from 284 to 258.

Peak 10-second Wind: 6 kt at 258°

[Hurricaneman]

I would check that area 150 miles north of Cancun as it has a strong MLC but I wonder if there's a LLC there and what the recon is chasing is an eddy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Either that MLC 150 mile north of Cancun has a LLC or this is badly sheared mess and the LLC is hundreds of miles from the MLC type of deals.

Recon found a center of some kind hundreds of miles from the MLC which means this is badly sheared

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

They are trying hard to close something there. Peak 10-second Wind: 4 kt at 288°

[hurricanekid416]

They found a very weak LLC that is well displaced from all of the convenction and the MLC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, the LLC doesn't appear defined enough to warrant an upgrade.

[Hurricaneman]

my opinion is recon found an eddy and not a well defined LLC and this has a broad circulation so we'll see as they look farther north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

Recon might be checking around 23N 91.5W as that area looks interesting

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Nimbus]

Looks like recon has the right longitude ~91.35.
Low level vorticity must be displaced though, I was looking further north for a center near 23.69?
At least the dryness is helping a little in the early stages to hamper development.

[TheAustinMan]

There's a band of cirrus clouds that raced ahead of the MLC (or at least the main, eastern area of convection) this afternoon, made it west to about Merida's longitude, and this evening has now stalled and appears to be retrograding back to the east. Not sure what that means though.

[chaser1]

Essentially, this is better organized than an open trough yet lacking the required co-located convection which would aid in furthering surface convergence as well as a continued lowering of surface pressures by means of the creation of an upper anticyclone to evacuate the rising air and thus create & increase a cycle of organization and strengthening. The low level winds causing 91L to move off to the NW will prevent itself from "sitting around" long enough for any convection (or Mid level low) that is presently well to the east, from catching up and suddenly organize. This is what upper wind shear does. Only if and when the upper level winds become conducive enough for thunderstorms to develop and maintain themselves close to or over the LLC, will 91L have a chance to organize enough to permit it to be classified as a Depression (and then potentially a Tropical Storm). 91L is "on the clock", and has perhaps 36-48 hours for upper level conditions to Iimprove. How much it may deepen in how short a period of time? That's a separate qu3stion but a legitimate one.... unless it doesn't reach the coast prior to organizing further.