Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

tropicwatch · #21 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:19 am

Interesting to see storms in the Gulf of Mexico in the morning. It has been mostly devoid of moisture in the mornings lately.

Javlin · #22 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:11 am

You could see this area last night through the WV looking more and more like a cutoff.Lowest buoy reading was 29.88 nothing really low and most 29.94 but the fact that TS continue to pulsate merits monitoring if nothing more than the hound dog on the porch "one eye open".

ronjon · #23 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:48 am

Starting to look a little interesting west of tampa. NAM shows weak low developing there over the next 12-24 hours and persisting a couple of days. With SW winds south of the trough and NE winds north of the trough combined with heavy convection we could see low pressure center develop. Something to watch.

#24 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:56 am

I discussed this yesterday with Hammy and a few others on the Global Models Thread. Keep in mind also that shear has definitely decreased across the NE GOM region since yesterday. It is an area to watch and if convection can sustain itself over a duration of time, it a possiblity that Low pressure could form, which CMC and a couple of other models have shown to form in the NE GOM within the five day period from yesterday's runs.

Nimbus · #25 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:51 am

The troughing has moved a little further southwest into the gulf off Tampa.

Usually the *first* low to close off is at the southern most end of the trough.
A second low can form later further up the trough after the CC circulation resumes at the new pole.

Nothing current that I can cut and paste from but there should still be something in the isobar charts for the models to digest.

caneman · #26 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:14 am

We've been getting hammered with rain 6 inches yesterday and alot more today. Tomorrow is 80 percent chance. Flood watches.and warnings. In the past, Many times here in Tampa-ST. Pete when you see this much rain a tropical system has formed. Not a forecast, just an observation from living here for so long.

caneman · #27 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:19 am

Not sure why buy I used to be a cat. 5 with a lot of posts but now I'm a low

oh well. Anyhow, good to be back. Hasnt been much to watch for awhile now.

tropicwatch · #28 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:47 am

Kind of noticeable where the heaviest shear is located.

#29 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:13 pm

12Z GFS shows a low in the EGOM that hangs around for days then shoots NE. Its closer to the ECMWF on this run. You never know, it may develop if it hangs around that long over those warm waters with low shear

blp · #30 Postby **blp** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:30 pm

Moved further West and South.

tropicwatch · #31 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:35 pm

That is quite the shift on the NHC's part.

#32 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:46 pm

Recommend we combine this thread with the other one off SE US coast.

#33 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:48 pm

Looking at Tampa radar there is a counter clockwise spin. Just slightly.

ronjon · #34 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:49 pm

Looks like the NHC is giving latest GFS run more credence. NAM and FHM have been on board with GOM solution too for what it's worth. Latest GFS really spins up the vorticity in 96 hrs and brings the low into Appalachee Bay on Friday.

#35 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:58 pm

Shear will gradually drop off in the NE GOM in the next couple of days. Looks like the models are gradually coming around to the idea of possible development in the NE GOM later this week.

I have stood my ground being in the NE GOM camp these past few days as the CMC was among the first models to sniff this scenario out and I latched on to that idea that decaying trough in the region may trigger development in the NE GOM.. ie refer to Hammy and the Global Models Thread from yesterday... 8-)

and it may very well play out this way.

stormlover2013 · #36 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:01 pm

Longer it takes the more west it will go because high pressure builds in

TheAustinMan · #37 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:06 pm

Impressive eddy circulations within the trough on Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis. The shape of the Florida coastline is probably helping to shape up a circulation in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but convection remains disorganized. Not too much in the way of pressure falls right now as pressures have largely been steady over the last six hours.

Sanibel · #38 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:20 pm

You can see that vortex entering the GOM by the big bend going NE to SW on visible.

ronjon · #39 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:27 pm

12z Euro has low pressure off SW Fl coast in 36 hrs. Game on?

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:30 pm

vorticity stretches into the EGOM now:

Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

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