WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

This is what may be a strong Typhoon.

93W INVEST 150728 0600 13.3N 171.6E WPAC 15 1006

[euro6208]

So they switch 92W and made this 93W?

[euro6208]

It's GFS vs EURO

GFS has been showing just a weak system over the past runs after showing a monster typhoon. Weak TS at best as it safely recurves north of the Marianas...

EURO still insist on a powerful typhoon passing north of Saipan and later exploding to a Category 5...

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 280910
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 28/0832Z

C. 12.2N

D. 170.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING OF 3/10 YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE
1.0 SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST CLASSIFICATION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 150728 1800 12.5N 167.8E WPAC 15 1007

Center in the convective canopy...

[euro6208]

EURO showing a Category 5 barreling between Okinawa and Taiwan after smashing the Northern Marianas!

[euro6208]

GFS still insist a recurving weak struggling storm...

[euro6208]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.0N 160.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.07.2015 11.7N 158.9E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.07.2015 11.3N 156.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.07.2015 11.7N 154.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.08.2015 12.6N 152.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.08.2015 13.9N 150.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.08.2015 14.7N 147.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.08.2015 15.3N 145.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.08.2015 16.6N 143.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.08.2015 18.4N 140.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

Upgraded to MEDIUM!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
167.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EXPOSED
CLOUD LINES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ARE WRAPPING INTO THE
CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. A 290252Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING. A 282222Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 290915
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 29/0832Z

C. 12.3N

D. 163.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=1.5.
MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 290127
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1125 AM CHST WED JUL 29 2015

GUZ001>004-300200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1125 AM CHST WED JUL 29 2015

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND...

AT 1100 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS ABOUT 250
MILES NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL AND ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KOSRAE. IT WAS CENTERED NEAR 12 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 166
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST.

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL STORM
BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING...IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS FUTURE TRACK OR WINDS AS IT
APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. STAY INFORMED ON ITS PROGRESS BY FOLLOWING
THE LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

NWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR INVEST AREA 93W CENTERED
NEAR 12N165E. IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR AND INDICATE 93W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS A CIRCULATION AND MOVE TOWARD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL STORM
BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE IT ACROSS
THE MARIANAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS OF COURSE STILL DEVELOPING...AND ITS EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE MARIANAS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ21 KNES 291509
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 29/1432Z

C. 12.9N

D. 162.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.0. MET=1.5 WITH PT=2.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 291430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 164.8E TO 12.1N 155.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
162.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
164.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG MID-
LEVEL TURNING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 291021Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING. A 291021Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE
REVEALS AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28
CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301430Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 291804

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF UJELANG)

B. 29/1701Z

C. 12.75N

D. 161.91E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1447Z 12.87N 162.98E ATMS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

JMA has Soudelor passing over Saipan...



NAVGEM back and forth showing either a typhoon or TS passing over Saipan and later strengthening...




CMC passing this north of Saipan...

[euro6208]

Ouch...Monster Soudelor for the Northern Marianas and Category 5 for Taiwan...

[euro6208]

GFS is more northerly...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 162E WNW 10 KT.

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 162E WNW 10 KT.

Can you post a link to JMA's upgrade info? Thanks!