000
WTNT34 KNHC 191432
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015
...DANNY HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 41.1W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 41.1 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected during the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
could become a hurricane by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 191433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015
While there has not been much overall change to Danny's curved-band
cloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday. Cloud
top temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest CI number
from TAFB.
There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification
during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of
dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone
to the north. Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles
in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the
strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will
ultimately affect Danny's intensity. The ECMWF shows upper-level
westerlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding
sway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation
of the shear. The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the
GFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet
the dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even
weakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems
less likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given
the strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this
season. The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout
the forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or
just above the multi-model consensus ICON.
Recent fixes indicate that Danny's forward speed has decreased
slightly, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. An enhanced
mid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the
Caribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the
north of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days. This should
result in Danny's continued movement toward the west or west-
northwest across the tropical Atlantic, albeit at a less than
climatological rate of speed. Later in the forecast period, large-
scale models are in agreement that there should be some re-
strengthening of the subtropical ridge, which would result in
Danny's moving at a slightly faster forward speed. The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude. The
track forecast is adjusted southward this forecast cycle, based on
an initial re-positioning of the cyclone and with the expectation
that Danny could be somewhat weaker later in the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 11.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.4N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.9N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.4N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.1N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 15.6N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.6N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
WTNT44 KNHC 191433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015
While there has not been much overall change to Danny's curved-band
cloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday. Cloud
top temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest CI number
from TAFB.
There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification
during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of
dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone
to the north. Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles
in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the
strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will
ultimately affect Danny's intensity. The ECMWF shows upper-level
westerlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding
sway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation
of the shear. The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the
GFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet
the dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even
weakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems
less likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given
the strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this
season. The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout
the forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or
just above the multi-model consensus ICON.
Recent fixes indicate that Danny's forward speed has decreased
slightly, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. An enhanced
mid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the
Caribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the
north of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days. This should
result in Danny's continued movement toward the west or west-
northwest across the tropical Atlantic, albeit at a less than
climatological rate of speed. Later in the forecast period, large-
scale models are in agreement that there should be some re-
strengthening of the subtropical ridge, which would result in
Danny's moving at a slightly faster forward speed. The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude. The
track forecast is adjusted southward this forecast cycle, based on
an initial re-positioning of the cyclone and with the expectation
that Danny could be somewhat weaker later in the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 11.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.4N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.9N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.4N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.1N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 15.6N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.6N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching TS DANNY)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY MOVING MOSTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN...INDUCING A GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST
TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT
TS DANNY. AT 11 AM AST DANNY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1385 MILES TO EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 12 MPH. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4 PRODUCE BY NHC.
&&
.AVIATION...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED CAUSING PREVAILING VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AT AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE GENERAL TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 40
STT 78 90 79 89 / 20 20 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY MOVING MOSTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS
OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN...INDUCING A GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST
TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT
TS DANNY. AT 11 AM AST DANNY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1385 MILES TO EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 12 MPH. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4 PRODUCE BY NHC.
&&
.AVIATION...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED CAUSING PREVAILING VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AT AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE GENERAL TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 40
STT 78 90 79 89 / 20 20 40 40
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching TS DANNY)
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
Satellite imagery shows that Danny's deep convection collapsed late
this morning, with the experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery suggesting that dry-air entrainment could be the cause.
Although visible satellite pictures still show a vigorous
circulation and some renewed convection, the system overall has lost
organization and become more embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone since yesterday. With little change in the Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in agreement
with the latest CI number from TAFB.
Given the current appearance of the cyclone, it might be that
dry air associated with the SAL intruding from the north and west
has become a greater impediment to intensification. Dry air aside,
other atmospheric parameters governing intensification would seem to
favor some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the
official forecast shows modest strengthening. After that time,
significantly drier mid-tropospheric air and an increase in westerly
flow aloft associated with an enhanced and persistent mid-oceanic
trough across the Caribbean region is expected to induce weakening
as shown in the ECWMF solution. There is a large discrepancy
between the statistical and dynamical model guidance, with the
GFS-based statistical guidance continuing to show more
intensification and the regional hurricane models showing only
modest strengthening followed by weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but a little lower than the previous one at
later times, consistent with the multi-model consensus.
The cyclone has been moving generally west but at a slower forward
speed (280/08) in response to a weakening subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone. A west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next next 2 to 3 days, at which time an interesting
split in the model guidance occurs. The GFS shows a much stronger
representation of Danny moving west-northwestward near and north of
the Greater Antilles in 3 to 5 days. The ECWMF solution, on the
other hand, depicts Danny as a shallower feature from the start and
as a weakening cyclone as it nears the Lesser Antilles on a westward
track. The new forecast track maintains the philosophy of the
previous one by showing a general westward track in the extended
range, giving more weight to the ECMWF solution that shows
weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 11.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 13.1N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.8N 47.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.0N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.8N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
Satellite imagery shows that Danny's deep convection collapsed late
this morning, with the experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery suggesting that dry-air entrainment could be the cause.
Although visible satellite pictures still show a vigorous
circulation and some renewed convection, the system overall has lost
organization and become more embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone since yesterday. With little change in the Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in agreement
with the latest CI number from TAFB.
Given the current appearance of the cyclone, it might be that
dry air associated with the SAL intruding from the north and west
has become a greater impediment to intensification. Dry air aside,
other atmospheric parameters governing intensification would seem to
favor some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the
official forecast shows modest strengthening. After that time,
significantly drier mid-tropospheric air and an increase in westerly
flow aloft associated with an enhanced and persistent mid-oceanic
trough across the Caribbean region is expected to induce weakening
as shown in the ECWMF solution. There is a large discrepancy
between the statistical and dynamical model guidance, with the
GFS-based statistical guidance continuing to show more
intensification and the regional hurricane models showing only
modest strengthening followed by weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but a little lower than the previous one at
later times, consistent with the multi-model consensus.
The cyclone has been moving generally west but at a slower forward
speed (280/08) in response to a weakening subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone. A west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next next 2 to 3 days, at which time an interesting
split in the model guidance occurs. The GFS shows a much stronger
representation of Danny moving west-northwestward near and north of
the Greater Antilles in 3 to 5 days. The ECWMF solution, on the
other hand, depicts Danny as a shallower feature from the start and
as a weakening cyclone as it nears the Lesser Antilles on a westward
track. The new forecast track maintains the philosophy of the
previous one by showing a general westward track in the extended
range, giving more weight to the ECMWF solution that shows
weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 11.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 13.1N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.8N 47.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.0N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.8N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching TS DANNY)
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
Convection associated with Danny has increased in both coverage and
organization during the past several hours. Overall, though, the
storm still looks a little less organized than 24 hours ago. The
various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The cirrus
outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.
Danny has turned to the right over the past several hours, and the
initial motion is now 295/9. A weak subtropical ridge north of the
cyclone is expected to steer Danny generally west-northwestward for
the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to
strengthen as a mid- to upper-level low currently near Bermuda
lifts out to the north. This should cause Danny to turn more
westward at a faster forward speed, with the center forecast to be
near the Leeward Islands by 120 hours. There is some spread in
the guidance during this time, with the UKMET, GFDN, GFDL and NAVGEM
models showing a more northward motion than the other guidance. One
change since the previous advisory is that the new GFS has shifted
southward and now lies closer to the ECMWF forecast on the south
side of the guidance envelope. The new track forecast, which is on
the south side of the guidance near the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/GFS Ensemble
Mean solutions, is similar to the previous forecast.
Earlier Windsat data shows that Danny has a well-defined inner
core, and this, combined with a light-vertical wind shear
environment, should allow strengthening for the next three days or
so. However, experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery continues to show abundant dry air not far from the storm
in the northern semicircle. Entrainment of this air is expected to
limit intensification, and this is reflected by a downward trend in
the intensity guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
encounter even drier air and southwesterly shear, which should cause
weakening. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous
forecast through 48 hours and then shows slightly lower intensities
thereafter. It should be noted that the ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast Danny to weaken to a tropical wave by 120 hours, which is a
plausible alternative scenario given the forecast environment and
the small size of the cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 12.1N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 12.6N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 13.1N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 13.7N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 14.4N 48.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
Convection associated with Danny has increased in both coverage and
organization during the past several hours. Overall, though, the
storm still looks a little less organized than 24 hours ago. The
various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The cirrus
outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.
Danny has turned to the right over the past several hours, and the
initial motion is now 295/9. A weak subtropical ridge north of the
cyclone is expected to steer Danny generally west-northwestward for
the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to
strengthen as a mid- to upper-level low currently near Bermuda
lifts out to the north. This should cause Danny to turn more
westward at a faster forward speed, with the center forecast to be
near the Leeward Islands by 120 hours. There is some spread in
the guidance during this time, with the UKMET, GFDN, GFDL and NAVGEM
models showing a more northward motion than the other guidance. One
change since the previous advisory is that the new GFS has shifted
southward and now lies closer to the ECMWF forecast on the south
side of the guidance envelope. The new track forecast, which is on
the south side of the guidance near the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/GFS Ensemble
Mean solutions, is similar to the previous forecast.
Earlier Windsat data shows that Danny has a well-defined inner
core, and this, combined with a light-vertical wind shear
environment, should allow strengthening for the next three days or
so. However, experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery continues to show abundant dry air not far from the storm
in the northern semicircle. Entrainment of this air is expected to
limit intensification, and this is reflected by a downward trend in
the intensity guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
encounter even drier air and southwesterly shear, which should cause
weakening. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous
forecast through 48 hours and then shows slightly lower intensities
thereafter. It should be noted that the ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast Danny to weaken to a tropical wave by 120 hours, which is a
plausible alternative scenario given the forecast environment and
the small size of the cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 12.1N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 12.6N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 13.1N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 13.7N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 14.4N 48.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT34 KNHC 200237
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
...DANNY JOGS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 42.7W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 42.7 West. Danny is
now moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
still could become a hurricane by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT34 KNHC 200237
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015
...DANNY JOGS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 42.7W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 42.7 West. Danny is
now moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
still could become a hurricane by Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 145447
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching TS DANNY)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY IN NO HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 43.7W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
The cloud pattern resembles a tropical cyclone much more than 12
hours ago. An irregular Central Dense Overcast(CDO) has formed, and
the center continues to be remarkably well depicted in microwave
images. In fact, it has a much better structure than earlier. The
outflow remains fair. Dvorak numbers suggest that the winds are
still 45 kt. Danny has the opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next 2 to 3 days while embedded within very light shear. Models
in general, however, no longer intensify the cyclone as much as they
did in earlier runs and, in fact, the GFS and ECMWF weaken Danny to
a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast calls
for some intensification for the next 3 days, and calls for slight
weakening as Danny encounters high shear and dry air in the eastern
Caribbean Sea.
Microwave fixes indicate that Danny is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge is expected soon. After 48 hours, most
of the global models forecast the subtropical ridge to expand
westward, forcing Danny to turn back to the west as indicated in the
NHC forecast. The multi-model consensus as well as the consensus of
the GFS and the ECMWF depict the expansion of the ridge, and bring
Danny to the eastern Caribbean, while the UK and the GFDL models
insist on taking the cyclone north of the islands. In summary, it
appears that a tropical cyclone or a perhaps a wave will be moving
over the Leeward Islands between 4 and 5 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 12.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.5N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.3N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY IN NO HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 43.7W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
The cloud pattern resembles a tropical cyclone much more than 12
hours ago. An irregular Central Dense Overcast(CDO) has formed, and
the center continues to be remarkably well depicted in microwave
images. In fact, it has a much better structure than earlier. The
outflow remains fair. Dvorak numbers suggest that the winds are
still 45 kt. Danny has the opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next 2 to 3 days while embedded within very light shear. Models
in general, however, no longer intensify the cyclone as much as they
did in earlier runs and, in fact, the GFS and ECMWF weaken Danny to
a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast calls
for some intensification for the next 3 days, and calls for slight
weakening as Danny encounters high shear and dry air in the eastern
Caribbean Sea.
Microwave fixes indicate that Danny is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge is expected soon. After 48 hours, most
of the global models forecast the subtropical ridge to expand
westward, forcing Danny to turn back to the west as indicated in the
NHC forecast. The multi-model consensus as well as the consensus of
the GFS and the ECMWF depict the expansion of the ridge, and bring
Danny to the eastern Caribbean, while the UK and the GFDL models
insist on taking the cyclone north of the islands. In summary, it
appears that a tropical cyclone or a perhaps a wave will be moving
over the Leeward Islands between 4 and 5 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 12.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.5N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.3N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching TS DANNY)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
DRY MID-LEVELS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
DANNY CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TJSJ
20/00Z SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL SUGGESTING DRY
MID LEVELS WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
REACHED THE LOCAL AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST
OF ST CROIX AND ST JOHN. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SAHARAN DUST AND
TROPICAL WAVE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN ONCE IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING...WILL OVERCOME THE EFFECT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
SAHARAN DUST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE ISLANDS UNTIL SUNDAY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BASED ON THE LATEST NHC BULLETIN...TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT NEAR 10 MPH AND A TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH NO
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4 AND TCDAT4 PRODUCE
BY THE NHC.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM WITH A FEW SHRA. BRIEF MVFR
WILL CONT THRU 21/00Z. MOISTURE WILL REACH TISX AS EARLY AS
29/12Z...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER TIST AND PR DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH SCT SHRA AND
ISOL TSRA BEGG 20/17Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 21/02Z. WINDS AT SFC
TO FL100 ELY 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIR GUSTS AT COAST XCP BTWN
20/16-22Z FROM FL020 TO FL100 ESE TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. MAX WINDS BLO
FL540 15 KT OR LESS THRU 21/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE GENERAL TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 30 40 30
STT 90 80 88 80 / 20 50 50 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
DRY MID-LEVELS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
DANNY CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TJSJ
20/00Z SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL SUGGESTING DRY
MID LEVELS WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
REACHED THE LOCAL AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST
OF ST CROIX AND ST JOHN. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SAHARAN DUST AND
TROPICAL WAVE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN ONCE IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING...WILL OVERCOME THE EFFECT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
SAHARAN DUST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE ISLANDS UNTIL SUNDAY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BASED ON THE LATEST NHC BULLETIN...TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT NEAR 10 MPH AND A TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH NO
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4 AND TCDAT4 PRODUCE
BY THE NHC.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM WITH A FEW SHRA. BRIEF MVFR
WILL CONT THRU 21/00Z. MOISTURE WILL REACH TISX AS EARLY AS
29/12Z...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER TIST AND PR DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH SCT SHRA AND
ISOL TSRA BEGG 20/17Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 21/02Z. WINDS AT SFC
TO FL100 ELY 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIR GUSTS AT COAST XCP BTWN
20/16-22Z FROM FL020 TO FL100 ESE TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. MAX WINDS BLO
FL540 15 KT OR LESS THRU 21/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE GENERAL TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 30 40 30
STT 90 80 88 80 / 20 50 50 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS WEAKLY WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. THE TUTT IS
HOWEVER FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT JUST WEST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...HOWEVER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IN
TURN WILL WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCOMPANYING A WEAKLY INDUCED EASTERLY
WAVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT COULD BE EVEN DRIER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AHEAD
OF HURRICANE DANNY...WHICH BASED ON THE LATEST TRAJECTORY/GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA...SHOULD BE JUST
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS AFTER 20/19Z THROUGH
20/22Z AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND W-PR. MTN
OBSCURATIONS ALSO EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH 20/23Z...DECREASING TO AROUND 5-
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 1 TO 4 FEET AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...AS WELL AS LOCAL
WINDS AND SEAS...BUT ALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
DANNY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND INFO ON THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 91 / 30 40 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS WEAKLY WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. THE TUTT IS
HOWEVER FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT JUST WEST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...HOWEVER RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IN
TURN WILL WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCOMPANYING A WEAKLY INDUCED EASTERLY
WAVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT COULD BE EVEN DRIER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AHEAD
OF HURRICANE DANNY...WHICH BASED ON THE LATEST TRAJECTORY/GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA...SHOULD BE JUST
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS AFTER 20/19Z THROUGH
20/22Z AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND W-PR. MTN
OBSCURATIONS ALSO EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH 20/23Z...DECREASING TO AROUND 5-
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 1 TO 4 FEET AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...AS WELL AS LOCAL
WINDS AND SEAS...BUT ALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
DANNY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND INFO ON THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 91 / 30 40 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
The overall cloud pattern of Danny has continued to improve with the
development of a tiny eye within a small central dense overcast,
as well as some outer convective banding features. The
initial intensity of 70 kt is based on a blend of consensus Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB and
an NHC objective Dvorak classification of T4.5/77 kt using the
pinhole eye scene type. Satellite data continue to indicate that
Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone.
The initial motion is 295/09 kt. NHC model guidance continues to be
in good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter
as a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W fills in. As the
ridge builds westward to the north of Danny, the cyclone is expected
to accelerate and move a little faster during the 72-120 hour
period. The official forecast track is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are difficult, at
best, to forecast. Low-shear conditions and SSTs near 28 deg C are
expected to continue along the forecast track for the next 24 hours
or so, which should allow for some further strengthening during that
time. Although Danny continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level
air, the recent development of outer banding features noted in
satellite images suggests that entrainment of this dry air might not
be as much of an inhibiting factor as it has been during the past
couple of days. However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies
close to the IVCN consensus model.
Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will be
investigating Danny Friday afternoon, and that data will provide a
better estimate of the hurricane's structure and strength.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 13.0N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 13.6N 46.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 14.4N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.2N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
...DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015
The overall cloud pattern of Danny has continued to improve with the
development of a tiny eye within a small central dense overcast,
as well as some outer convective banding features. The
initial intensity of 70 kt is based on a blend of consensus Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB and
an NHC objective Dvorak classification of T4.5/77 kt using the
pinhole eye scene type. Satellite data continue to indicate that
Danny is an unusually small tropical cyclone.
The initial motion is 295/09 kt. NHC model guidance continues to be
in good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter
as a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W fills in. As the
ridge builds westward to the north of Danny, the cyclone is expected
to accelerate and move a little faster during the 72-120 hour
period. The official forecast track is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are difficult, at
best, to forecast. Low-shear conditions and SSTs near 28 deg C are
expected to continue along the forecast track for the next 24 hours
or so, which should allow for some further strengthening during that
time. Although Danny continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level
air, the recent development of outer banding features noted in
satellite images suggests that entrainment of this dry air might not
be as much of an inhibiting factor as it has been during the past
couple of days. However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies
close to the IVCN consensus model.
Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will be
investigating Danny Friday afternoon, and that data will provide a
better estimate of the hurricane's structure and strength.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 13.0N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 13.6N 46.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 14.4N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.2N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
From Stormcarib.com
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/statia.shtml
- Press Release August 19th 2015by local Statian government:
•From: CHN Statia <chnstatia at gmail.com>
•Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 15:29:26 -0400
The disaster committee hereby informs the general public of the developing tropic storm Danny. Currently registering wins of 50 mph and is projected to increase in intensity as it approaches the Islands chain. On the current path Danny is projected to be in our vicinity as a Tropical Storm by Monday 24th August 2015, all residence are advised to monitor the system over the course of the coming days in order to take timely action should this be advised. As we approach the most active part of our yearly hurricane season the general public is reminded to keep your property and neighborhoods clear of loose debris that could cause damage during a storm. Report any areas of concerns to the authority and stay tuned to local media for regular updates and developments regarding this system.
CHN Statia
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/statia.shtml- Press Release August 19th 2015by local Statian government:
•From: CHN Statia <chnstatia at gmail.com>
•Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 15:29:26 -0400
The disaster committee hereby informs the general public of the developing tropic storm Danny. Currently registering wins of 50 mph and is projected to increase in intensity as it approaches the Islands chain. On the current path Danny is projected to be in our vicinity as a Tropical Storm by Monday 24th August 2015, all residence are advised to monitor the system over the course of the coming days in order to take timely action should this be advised. As we approach the most active part of our yearly hurricane season the general public is reminded to keep your property and neighborhoods clear of loose debris that could cause damage during a storm. Report any areas of concerns to the authority and stay tuned to local media for regular updates and developments regarding this system.
CHN Statia
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SAINT CROIX AND FEW OTHERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT DANNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK PUT DANNY AS A
TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL TOO FAR IN TIME TO KNOW EXACTLY
WHICH IMPACTS WILL HAVE DANNY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THEW U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
AFTER 21/12Z... POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 21/19Z THROUGH 21/22Z
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 80 87 78 / 30 30 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SAINT CROIX AND FEW OTHERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT DANNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK PUT DANNY AS A
TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL TOO FAR IN TIME TO KNOW EXACTLY
WHICH IMPACTS WILL HAVE DANNY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THEW U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
AFTER 21/12Z... POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 21/19Z THROUGH 21/22Z
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 80 87 78 / 30 30 30 20
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:10 AM ECT FRI, AUG 21, 2015
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 985 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IN POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT DANNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
DANNY IS A TINY HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTRE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 60 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB OR 29.15 INCHES.
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, DANNY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
A WATCH COULD COME INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARNING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD START IMPLEMENTING THE PORTION OF THEIR HURRICANE PLAN THAT MAY REQUIRE MORE THAN 48 HOURS TO COMPLETE. OTHERWISE, RESIDENTS SHOULD STAND READY TO EXECUTE THEIR STORM/HURRICANE PLAN IF A WATCH IS ISSUED TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM ECT POSITION,
LOCATION...13.7N 47.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 11 AM ECT
CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION
FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON
WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:10 AM ECT FRI, AUG 21, 2015
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 985 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IN POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT DANNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
DANNY IS A TINY HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTRE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 60 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB OR 29.15 INCHES.
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, DANNY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
A WATCH COULD COME INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARNING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD START IMPLEMENTING THE PORTION OF THEIR HURRICANE PLAN THAT MAY REQUIRE MORE THAN 48 HOURS TO COMPLETE. OTHERWISE, RESIDENTS SHOULD STAND READY TO EXECUTE THEIR STORM/HURRICANE PLAN IF A WATCH IS ISSUED TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM ECT POSITION,
LOCATION...13.7N 47.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 11 AM ECT
CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION
FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS
WEEKEND...THEN THE NOW HURRICANE DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL
STORM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AREA HELPED CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMED OFF THE
USVI...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN BRIEFLY FALLING OVER SAINT CROIX.
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SAHARAN DUST. SO MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SOME HAZE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE NOW MAJOR HURRICANE DANNY NOW HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
115 MPH. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STILL HAS HURRICANE DANNY
ENCOUNTERING SOME VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AFTER 12-24 HOURS AND
LIKELY WEAKENING RAPIDLY BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST FORECAST BY THE NHC HAS DANNY APPROACHING THE USVI LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROPICAL STORM AND PUERTO RICO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALSO AS A TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS DANNY OUT OF OUR LOCAL AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...PLEASE SEE HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON DANNY.
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY THERE IS A MOMENT OF DRY AIR
EXPECTED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA OR IF IT WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH. DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS
HAS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS RIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ UNTIL
ABOUT 21/21Z AS THE SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
THE USVI AND TJSJ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LINGERING MOISTURE
CAUSES BRIEF SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KT UNTIL 21/23Z THEN DECREASING TO ABOUT 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW THEN UP TO 5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY STARTING ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY
APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 30 30 10 20
STT 80 87 78 89 / 30 30 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS
WEEKEND...THEN THE NOW HURRICANE DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL
STORM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AREA HELPED CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMED OFF THE
USVI...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN BRIEFLY FALLING OVER SAINT CROIX.
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SAHARAN DUST. SO MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SOME HAZE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE NOW MAJOR HURRICANE DANNY NOW HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
115 MPH. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STILL HAS HURRICANE DANNY
ENCOUNTERING SOME VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AFTER 12-24 HOURS AND
LIKELY WEAKENING RAPIDLY BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST FORECAST BY THE NHC HAS DANNY APPROACHING THE USVI LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROPICAL STORM AND PUERTO RICO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALSO AS A TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS DANNY OUT OF OUR LOCAL AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...PLEASE SEE HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON DANNY.
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY THERE IS A MOMENT OF DRY AIR
EXPECTED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA OR IF IT WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH. DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS
HAS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS RIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ UNTIL
ABOUT 21/21Z AS THE SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS
THE USVI AND TJSJ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LINGERING MOISTURE
CAUSES BRIEF SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KT UNTIL 21/23Z THEN DECREASING TO ABOUT 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW THEN UP TO 5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY STARTING ON MONDAY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY
APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 30 30 10 20
STT 80 87 78 89 / 30 30 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...DANNY LIKELY AT PEAK INTENSITY...
...FORECAST TO WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Danny. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the
Leeward Islands on Saturday.
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Danny around
1600-1730 UTC. It found winds as high as 111 kt at the 12,000 ft
flight level and surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer as high as 104 kt. It also reported a
dropsonde central pressure of 974 mb. Based on these data, Danny
reached a 100-kt intensity at that time. Since then, the eye has
disappeared in satellite imagery, and the cyclone is showing signs
of being affected by southwesterly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is 100 kt for this advisory based on an expected
lag between the decay of the cloud pattern and the cyclone's
weakening. That being said, this intensity could be generous.
The initial motion is now 295/9. The subtropical ridge north of
Danny remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward during
the next couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and
strengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn more
westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance
is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be
near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands in about 84-96 hours, and in the vicinity of
Hispaniola by day 5. The new forecast track has a noise-level nudge
to the north of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with
the GFS and ECMWF models. It lies just south of the center of the
guidance envelope.
Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in
the cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the
cyclone, and abundant nearby dry air. Although it starts from a
higher initial intensity than the previous forecast, the new
intensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken below hurricane
strength at about 48 hours. After that, the system should continue
to weaken as it moves near or over the Greater Antilles in close
proximity to an upper-level trough. The GFS/ECWMF/UKMET models
all forecast Danny to degenerate to a tropical wave by 120 hours, so
the new intensity forecast compromises between this extreme and the
SHIPS/LGEM models, which forecast a stronger cyclone at that time.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will
investigate Danny again Saturday afternoon. These data will provide
a better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 14.5N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.5N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...DANNY LIKELY AT PEAK INTENSITY...
...FORECAST TO WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Danny. Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the
Leeward Islands on Saturday.
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Danny around
1600-1730 UTC. It found winds as high as 111 kt at the 12,000 ft
flight level and surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer as high as 104 kt. It also reported a
dropsonde central pressure of 974 mb. Based on these data, Danny
reached a 100-kt intensity at that time. Since then, the eye has
disappeared in satellite imagery, and the cyclone is showing signs
of being affected by southwesterly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is 100 kt for this advisory based on an expected
lag between the decay of the cloud pattern and the cyclone's
weakening. That being said, this intensity could be generous.
The initial motion is now 295/9. The subtropical ridge north of
Danny remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward during
the next couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and
strengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn more
westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance
is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be
near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands in about 84-96 hours, and in the vicinity of
Hispaniola by day 5. The new forecast track has a noise-level nudge
to the north of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with
the GFS and ECMWF models. It lies just south of the center of the
guidance envelope.
Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in
the cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the
cyclone, and abundant nearby dry air. Although it starts from a
higher initial intensity than the previous forecast, the new
intensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken below hurricane
strength at about 48 hours. After that, the system should continue
to weaken as it moves near or over the Greater Antilles in close
proximity to an upper-level trough. The GFS/ECWMF/UKMET models
all forecast Danny to degenerate to a tropical wave by 120 hours, so
the new intensity forecast compromises between this extreme and the
SHIPS/LGEM models, which forecast a stronger cyclone at that time.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will
investigate Danny again Saturday afternoon. These data will provide
a better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 14.5N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.5N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.5N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145447
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching H DANNY)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...DANNY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 49.8W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be
required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands on Saturday.
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
After reaching its peak intensity earlier today, Danny appears to
be starting a weakening trend. There has been no eye in infrared
satellite imagery since about 1800 UTC, and a 2136 UTC WindSat pass
showed that a narrow swath of drier air had worked its way into
the inner core, eroding the southern eyewall. The shear analysis
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicates that a little
over 20 kt of southwesterly shear is now affecting Danny, and
dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV surveillance flight revealed that
there was some light inflow into the western part of the circulation
between 300 and 400 mb. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
were steady or decreased slightly from six hours ago; therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 95 kt.
Vertical shear is expected to increase further during the next
couple of days, which should allow drier air in the surrounding
environment to penetrate into Danny's circulation. Therefore,
there is no change in the thinking that Danny should weaken as it
approaches and moves across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles during the forecast period. The SHIPS diagnostics is
currently showing only 10 kt of shear affecting Danny, and if the
shear is actually higher as shown by the UW-CIMSS product, then the
SHIPS and LGEM solutions probably keep Danny's intensity too high
during the next few days. The global models continue to depict
rapid weakening and show Danny degenerating into a surface trough in
3-4 days. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast is close to
the IVCN intensity consensus and a little bit lower than the
previous forecast. Danny is still expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands between 48-72 hours.
Danny's initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to accelerate and turn westward during
the next few days while the subtropical ridge builds westward over
the southwestern Atlantic. The bulk of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the entire forecast period, and no
appreciable changes to the previous NHC track forecast were
required on this advisory cycle.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft are
scheduled to investigate Danny and the surrounding environment
Saturday afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 49.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.6N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.6N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...DANNY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 49.8W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches may be
required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands on Saturday.
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
After reaching its peak intensity earlier today, Danny appears to
be starting a weakening trend. There has been no eye in infrared
satellite imagery since about 1800 UTC, and a 2136 UTC WindSat pass
showed that a narrow swath of drier air had worked its way into
the inner core, eroding the southern eyewall. The shear analysis
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicates that a little
over 20 kt of southwesterly shear is now affecting Danny, and
dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV surveillance flight revealed that
there was some light inflow into the western part of the circulation
between 300 and 400 mb. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
were steady or decreased slightly from six hours ago; therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 95 kt.
Vertical shear is expected to increase further during the next
couple of days, which should allow drier air in the surrounding
environment to penetrate into Danny's circulation. Therefore,
there is no change in the thinking that Danny should weaken as it
approaches and moves across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles during the forecast period. The SHIPS diagnostics is
currently showing only 10 kt of shear affecting Danny, and if the
shear is actually higher as shown by the UW-CIMSS product, then the
SHIPS and LGEM solutions probably keep Danny's intensity too high
during the next few days. The global models continue to depict
rapid weakening and show Danny degenerating into a surface trough in
3-4 days. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast is close to
the IVCN intensity consensus and a little bit lower than the
previous forecast. Danny is still expected to weaken to a tropical
storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands between 48-72 hours.
Danny's initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to accelerate and turn westward during
the next few days while the subtropical ridge builds westward over
the southwestern Atlantic. The bulk of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the entire forecast period, and no
appreciable changes to the previous NHC track forecast were
required on this advisory cycle.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft are
scheduled to investigate Danny and the surrounding environment
Saturday afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 14.8N 49.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.6N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.4N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.6N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:29 PM ECT FRI, AUG 21, 2015
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...HURRICANE DANNY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...
AT 11PM ECT OR 0300Z THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST OR ABOUT 793 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND 990 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HURRICANE DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED COUPLED WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTRE, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB OR 28.85 INCHES.
AS ANTICIPATED, HURRICANE DANNY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DANNY CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. INTEREST IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11PM ECT POSITION, 14.8 N, 49.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5AM ECT ON SATURDAY
CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:29 PM ECT FRI, AUG 21, 2015
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...HURRICANE DANNY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...
AT 11PM ECT OR 0300Z THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST OR ABOUT 793 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND 990 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HURRICANE DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED COUPLED WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTRE, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB OR 28.85 INCHES.
AS ANTICIPATED, HURRICANE DANNY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DANNY CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. INTEREST IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11PM ECT POSITION, 14.8 N, 49.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5AM ECT ON SATURDAY
CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT34 KNHC 220833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015
...DANNY WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 50.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches will likely
be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands later today.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 50.8 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical storm on
Sunday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT34 KNHC 220833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015
...DANNY WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 50.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should
monitor the progress of Danny. Tropical storm watches will likely
be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands later today.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 50.8 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical storm on
Sunday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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