ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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NCSTORMMAN

Re:

#1121 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:56 am

windnrain wrote:Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?


I second this! Is that a chance pro mets?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1122 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:56 am

16:15Z

Image
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Re:

#1123 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:57 am

windnrain wrote:Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?


More likely, yes. Also important is the forward speed. The faster it moves the quicker it can punch through that band of shear and get back in favorable conditions.
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#1124 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:58 am

not 105 kts with SFMR values as low as they are
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Re:

#1125 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:59 am

deltadog03 wrote:Im not going to lie, I am impressed with how well Danny is doing. Very impressive how its moved up in the world. Looks like a nice healthy storm, but for how long. This should peak soon, I would think.


I tend to agree as one can clearly see the southwesterly flow just ahead of the system. However, it's still going to rack up a good bit of ACE over the next few days regardless of it's potential demise and particularly if it ends up having been a major for a couple of periods. I know wxman had posted the potential for ACE to potentially be significantly lower than what some forecasters have called for. But a couple of H's and IH's can pile up some ACE points.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1126 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:02 pm

16:15Z big picture

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1127 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:04 pm

000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1128 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:05 pm

It looks like the eye just keeps getting smaller and smaller. Anyone know the diameter of it?
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Re: Re:

#1129 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:06 pm

ozonepete wrote:
windnrain wrote:Question - Higher it peaks, more likely it survives the shear ahead?


More likely, yes. Also important is the forward speed. The faster it moves the quicker it can punch through that band of shear and get back in favorable conditions.



NOT what I want to see. I want it to die well before it gets to any populated area so that there's nothing left but needed rain showers.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1130 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:06 pm

tolakram wrote:000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z



Tropical Cyclone Special Update imminent?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1131 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:07 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:It looks like the eye just keeps getting smaller and smaller. Anyone know the diameter of it?


I believe earlier that wxman said he measured it at 6 mi across. Perhaps an erc beginning?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1132 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:09 pm

One thing about such a small storm is that the recon pattern is much smaller too. They should be back at the center here shortly
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#1133 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:10 pm

It must be going through an eye wall replacement? Or the new convection just filled in the eye momentarily.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1134 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:11 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
tolakram wrote:000
URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z



Tropical Cyclone Special Update imminent?


Winds weren't enough quite yet due to missing the strongest winds (and being on the weaker side for that matter) so I assume they're at least waiting for another pass or two.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1135 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:11 pm

I dont think the eye can get much smaller. What is the smallest known eye in a hurricane?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1136 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:11 pm

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1137 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:18 pm

Radar presentation degrading fast, pressure up since last fix, I bet Danny was a cat 3 a few hours ago.

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#1138 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:18 pm

101 knt SMFR winds in the newest recon pass. Looks like it is a cat 3.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1139 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:20 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I dont think the eye can get much smaller. What is the smallest known eye in a hurricane?


Wilma's was two miles.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1140 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:21 pm

Glad recon decided to go to Danny first, might have caught his peak...
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