WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Goni has ingested a lot of dry air.
Will it intensify further? maybe... but i don't think so.

[1900hurricane]

Might be improving a little bit. 15Z IR imagery shows some re-firing around the eyewall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye has really tightened the last several images...still moving west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[euro6208]

Looks like it stalled...potentially heavy rains in tap for the Philippines...

[bahamaswx]

Looks like some slow northwesterly movement has begun.

[dexterlabio]

There sure is a lot of dry air from the north as the past typhoons that tracked over the area struggled to intensify also because of dry air. However there is a lot moisture from the southwest monsoon where this storm can tap into.

[I-wall]

This thing is almost due south of Taiwan. Goni would have to immediately make a 90 degree turn to miss the island and I don't remember seeing anything like that before. Is it really going to miss the island?

[1900hurricane]

The core got eaten up pretty good.



Overall, El Nino is a boon to WPac tropical cyclones, but the far western portions of the basin like the South China Sea and the part of the Philippine Sea where Goni is right now actually sees a slight downtick of activity with respect to average. Conditions do get a little more hostile closer to the Asian mainland.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED 14 NM
EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 210520Z AMSU-B
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING LOCATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 16W
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW EAST-
WEST ORIENTED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS,
AS WELL AS WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY, SHOWS THE STR TO THE NORTH WEAKENING
AFTER TAU 12, SLOWING TRACK MOTION AND POSSIBLY BEING QUASI-
STATIONARY DUE TO THE VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12,
THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A
POLEWARD ORIENTED TRACK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHWARD. TY 16W SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ENCROACHING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 16W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 210926

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 21/0832Z

C. 19.28N

D. 122.33E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

The eye has morphed into the small category and seems to be stationary...

[euro6208]

Large area of 4 inch of rain for Northern Luzon and the Batanes group of Islands to accompany the already soaked landscape...

[euro6208]

I'm seeing at least 35 to 50 knots for extreme northern Luzon and 50 to 65 knots for the Batanes island chain...If it moves a bit more west, then 80 to 95 knots is probable...

http://climatex.dost.gov.ph/radar/APA_overlay.html

Very heavy rains in store...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 497 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DETERIORATING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION BUT, OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LUZON. IN ADDITION, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED SIGNATURE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
PINHOLE EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE
SUSTAINING CONVECTION IN SPITE OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
90 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DECLINING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TY 16W HAS
STARTED TO GAIN LATITUDE AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A
BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS TAKEN OVER
AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING NER. THE RECENT 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A
BREAK IN THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH THE
STR TO THE WEST OVER CHINA WEAKENING AND REORIENTING FURTHER TO THE
WEST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND TAU 12, VWS
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL SERVE
TO INTENSIFY THE TYPHOON SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES PAST THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED BY DECREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ABOVE THE 25TH LATITUDE. TY 16W WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES MAINLAND JAPAN AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY GONI WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND INTO COOLER
WATERS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE.
TY 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN WHICH REMAIN A SLIGHT EASTERN OUTLIER.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AS THE TYPHOON
EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM TRACK SPEEDS AS THE NER
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

It's pinhole has returned...

[1900hurricane]

Looking pretty anemic at the moment.

[euro6208]

Goni's very small eye visible on the Taiwan radar...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE
FEATURE THAT HAS FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 221719Z GCOM 37
GHZ COLOR IMAGE REVEALS THE TIGHT SPIRAL STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR COMPOSITE IMAGERY, GOOD
AGENCY FIX AGREEMENT, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (5 TO 10 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE TRACK 48-72 HOUR TRACK
POSITION WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO THE
SASEBO CPA DISTANCE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE EAST BUILDS INTO A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
PATTERN, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES SUBTROPICAL. VWS IS NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AROUND TAU 48. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES TY 16W IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH WILL IMPROVE ALREADY
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALIGNED
WITH
THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE
SSTS LEADING UP TO ITS INITIAL LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, CALLING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE NOTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WITH KYUSHU, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN AND
SIGNIFICNATLY INCREASED VWS WILL SERVE TO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM AT THE SAME TIME IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE COLD SEA OF JAPAN AND DEEPER INTO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. GONI WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE TIME IT MAKES
LANDFALL INTO RUSSIA NEAR VLADIVOSTOK, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SOONER.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARDS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE ONLY TO THE NEAR-
TO MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 230021

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 22/2332Z

C. 23.47N

D. 123.18E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1904Z 22.75N 123.27E SSMI


BERMEA