ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

That's CRAZY showing it camped out like that off the west coast. Could mean tremendous amounts for rain in already very saturated areas.

SFT

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Weatherbell, still there at 240. Not believable IMO.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looking at Weatherbell the GFS continues to organize the west coast blob through 222 hours. Kind of a silly run, but does the big picture tell us anything?

Tells me that there is no trough picking this storm up.

[SouthFLTropics]

240 hours and still camped out...Big ridge sitting right above it...Trough's nowhere to be seen.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF 18z running...at hour 51 it shows it just clearing Puerto Rico to the North

[perk]

Is that high pressure sitting over Erika.

[tolakram]

For entertainment only, the end of the run the low finally moves east, clears the coast and moves out to sea.

[tolakram]

HWRF looks vary unorganized through 60 hours

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

18z...


From hour 108 to 132, Erika really takes off... IMO, if Erika takes a path just N of the big islands and avoids the mountains, she will enter the SE Bahamas where conditions seem to improve quickly as Erika moves towards SFL...

[PTrackerLA]

Actually 18z HWRF ramping up more than 12z so far...

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[floridasun78]

this making think Andrew that have blocking high to north and strong system that got stronger as want toward Bahama

[ronjon]

See the vorticity echo in the Bahamas now. GFS might be having some issues here.

Actually if you look at the 850 mb plot, the low pressure east of FL is a separate system coming from the east Atlantic that's following Erika.

[tolakram]