EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 570 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have changed little during the day. However, environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[WeatherGuesser]

If that was truly the case, they'd fly to Guam and American Samoa for TC's in those basins.

recon missions do not extend to Guam. Only Puerto Rico and HI

Which doesn't make sense that they fly to Carribean and Mexico systems and not US territories.

PR and VI. Installations on Cuba and ?? Relatively high population of the region as a whole. Plus the general proximity to the US mainland.

Guam's kind of out in the middle of no where with not much population comparatively.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

C SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  08/26/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    36    46    53    59    67    72    77    85    90
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    36    46    53    59    67    72    77    85    90
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    36    42    49    56    66    78    92   100
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     7     7     5     3     9    11    12     9     8     6     7     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -4    -3    -2    -3    -5    -3     0    -1    -1    -4    -4    -3
SHEAR DIR        311   312   304   327   300   286   294   321   333   313   245   247   290
SST (C)         29.6  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.6  29.4  29.0  28.9  28.8  28.7  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   162   163   163   162   162   161   162   160   156   155   154   154   150
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     8     9
700-500 MB RH     74    72    73    72    73    74    71    70    68    65    60    57    55
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     9     8     9     9    11    13    15    18    21    25    30    34
850 MB ENV VOR     6    -3    -8   -12   -13   -16   -10     4    33    41    46    62    72
200 MB DIV        50    51    41    53    72    51    40    32    57    42    76    64    83
700-850 TADV      -1    -3    -2     0     0    -1    -1    -1     0     0     0    -2    -4
LAND (KM)       1002  1039  1086  1127  1187  1289  1372  1507  1634  1802  1992  2208  2128
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.4  10.8  11.3  11.7  12.5  13.1  13.6  14.1  14.6  15.1  15.4  15.7
LONG(DEG W)    107.1 108.5 109.9 111.3 112.7 115.4 117.9 120.4 123.0 125.7 128.6 131.7 135.1
STM SPEED (KT)    13    14    14    14    14    13    13    12    13    14    15    15    16
HEAT CONTENT      30    37    43    42    58    32    22    28    38    20    24    21    15

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  555  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   7.  15.  23.  30.  33.  36.  38.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   6.   7.   7.   7.   8.   8.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   2.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.  -9. -10. -10. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   3.   6.   9.  13.  18.  24.  31.  36.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   8.  11.  21.  28.  34.  42.  47.  52.  60.  65.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     08/26/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.1 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 137.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.4 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  42.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    69% is   5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    41% is   4.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    25% is   5.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form later today or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

[Yellow Evan]

26/1200 UTC 10.8N 111.2W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific

[Extratropical94]

EP, 96, 2015082612, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1119W, 25, 1007, LO,

12Z Best Track update: still a low.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located about
800 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is close to becoming a
tropical depression. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward
near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 96, 2015082618, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1126W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

[Extratropical94]

96E on its way to becoming Jimena:

[Yellow Evan]

If I had to guess the NHC is holding off due to uncertainties over center definition.

[cycloneye]

Forecast to be a major.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

The area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the coast
of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized to be classified
as a tropical depression. Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt
from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and the initial
intensity is therefore set at 25 kt. The environment ahead of the
depression is characterized by low shear, very warm waters, and a
moist atmosphere, so strengthening appears likely throughout the
forecast period. In fact, some of the intensity models are quite
aggressive. Both the SHIPS and LGEM models strengthen the cyclone
to category 3 or 4 intensity in five days, and the GFS deepens the
system to a central pressure that typically equates to a category 3
hurricane. Therefore, the official forecast shows steady
intensification, with the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength
by day 5. This forecast is slightly below the IVCN intensity
consensus.

The center has been somewhat difficult to locate, but the overall
system has been moving quickly westward with a motion estimate of
280/17 kt. The depression is located to the south of a strong
mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the adjacent
Pacific waters. This ridge should continue steering the cyclone
westward--with a gradual decrease in forward speed--through day 4.
A breakdown of the ridge by day 5 could then support a
west-northwestward motion at the end of the forecast period. The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the
official forecast is relatively close the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 10.8N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 11.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 12.0N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 12.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 12.4N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 12.4N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 13.0N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  08/26/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    39    50    62    74    87    92   103   107   113
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    39    50    62    74    87    92   103   107   113
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    32    38    47    60    78    99   115   122   124
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     9     8     8     7    11    11     6     6     6     7     5     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -3    -4    -5    -5    -5    -2    -3    -1     1     1     1     0
SHEAR DIR        351     4   347   327   326   348    25    55    27    29    35    67    36
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.7  29.8  29.6  29.4  29.3  29.4  29.4  29.2  28.8  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   162   162   161   163   164   161   159   157   158   158   157   153   150
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     7
700-500 MB RH     70    71    72    72    72    71    71    70    68    67    65    64    66
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     9    11    11    13    15    18    22    24    30    32    36
850 MB ENV VOR   -11   -18   -17   -21   -13    -1     5    23    39    58    61    74    80
200 MB DIV        34    32    28    30    35    51    46    68    85   119    90    95    82
700-850 TADV      -1    -1    -1     0     0    -1    -1     0     0     0    -2    -3    -1
LAND (KM)       1271  1358  1429  1463  1509  1636  1799  1921  2025  2146  2282  2369  2255
LAT (DEG N)     10.6 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    16    15    14    13    12    11    11     9     8     9    10    11    10
HEAT CONTENT      45    55    36    31    35    39    34    31    30    30    20    22    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  574  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  67.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   7.  15.  23.  30.  34.  36.  38.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   5.   6.   7.   8.   8.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   4.   7.  11.  15.  22.  24.  33.  35.  40.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  14.  25.  37.  49.  62.  67.  78.  82.  88.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     08/26/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.2 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 137.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.1 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  40.4 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.0 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    25% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    13% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Is not common to see a first advisory with a 100 kt forecast.

[Hurricane Jed]

Not that this has any bearing on anything but Jimena has been one of those names that usually catches fire. 1979-TS, 1985-4, 1991-4, 1997-4, 2003-2, 2009-4.

[Kingarabian]

Not that this has any bearing on anything but Jimena has been one of those names that usually catches fire. 1979-TS, 1985-4, 1991-4, 1997-4, 2003-2, 2009-4.

This is true, and this may also hold true for this years Jimena. 18z GFS keeps it moving on a weird WSW movement to keep it over warm waters and has a cat.4 hurricane. I wonder, when was the last time we had a Cat. 5 that far west?

[Hurricane Jed]

I know all 3 Cat 5's in 1994 did so fairly far west.

[Yellow Evan]

Not that this has any bearing on anything but Jimena has been one of those names that usually catches fire. 1979-TS, 1985-4, 1991-4, 1997-4, 2003-2, 2009-4.

This is true, and this may also hold true for this years Jimena. 18z GFS keeps it moving on a weird WSW movement to keep it over warm waters and has a cat.4 hurricane. I wonder, when was the last time we had a Cat. 5 that far west?

Ioke in 2006 was a Cat 5 as it crossed the dateline.

Excluding CPAC, not sure. But as I've harped several times, I think the intensity of many EPAC pre-1990ish are underestimated.

[Hurricane Jed]

After a quick glance at HURDAT, excluding CPAC storms and EPAC storms that reached Cat 5 in the CPAC, 1997's Guillermo appears to be the furthest west of any EPAC storm to reach Cat 5 doing so at 116.6W.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 13, 2015082700, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1141W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has improved significantly
since the previous advisory with the establishment of a
well-defined outflow pattern and several curved convective banding
features. However, the inner-core convection is rather paltry and
limited at this time, and that is the main reason why the system is
still a depression despite is otherwise impressive satellite
appearance. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate of 285/15 kt is based on recent
microwave satellite fixes. There is no significant change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to
remain south of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico and
the adjacent Pacific Ocean, and move generally westward along the
southern periphery of the ridge for the next 3-4 days. By 96-120
hours, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a
mid-latitude trough drops southward, forcing the cyclone to move on
a slower west-northwestward track. The NHC track guidance remains in
good agreement on this developing scenario, and the official
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and follows the
consensus models GFEX and TVCE.

The environment ahead of the depression is expected to be quite
favorable for strengthening for the next 5 days or so due to low
vertical wind shear, SSTs greater than 29 deg C, and moist
mid-level air. Both the SHIPS and LGEM models remain fairly
aggressive by making the cyclone to category 3 or 4 hurricane,
respectively, by days 4 and 5. Given these favorable conditions and
the recent improvement in the depression's structure, the official
intensity forecast has been nudged upward from the previous
advisory, and follows the IVCN consensus model through 96 hours,
and uses a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models at 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 11.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.1N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 12.5N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 121.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 13.9N 131.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 15.5N 134.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart