ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Put me down for the "I wouldn't call that a center".

longer vis loop showing center moving north. Speed up to make it easier to see.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

interesting, this movement more north, although likely temporary, could mean the world of difference if it tracks over Hispaniola or not.

[HurriGuy]

FWIW,

The ECMWF initialized it to perfection. I agree with what its doing so far.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the ASCAT pass that is the center no doubt about it and the one thing I noticed is that the Pros agree with that sentiment

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

It appears to me Erika's LLC is finally taking a more WNW if not a NW jog the past few hours.

[Frank P]

Convection sure looks to be firing up again on the eastern half of the storm this afternoon...

[deltadog03]

Hey its still trying to build convection. I doubt we see anything reform. That LLC looks pretty healthy.

[HurriGuy]

Not surprised what the ECMWF is doing with Erika on this run.

[bahamaswx]

Hey its still trying to build convection. I doubt we see anything reform. That LLC looks pretty healthy.

Agreed. I think 6-10 hours from now she'll look pretty good actually.

[HurriGuy]

Hey its still trying to build convection. I doubt we see anything reform. That LLC looks pretty healthy.

Agreed. I think 6-10 hours from now she'll look pretty good actually.

What makes you think that? Shear is still going to be an issue by then

[SouthFLTropics]

weather channel got crew in miami setting up

Lol, that makes me feel good because historically they usually get it wrong and the storm goes somewhere else.

Ah, the Cantore curse...Up until 05' if he showed up in your neighborhood you were safe. And then Katrina happened and that trend came to an end.

[Hammy]

Hey its still trying to build convection. I doubt we see anything reform. That LLC looks pretty healthy.

Agreed. I think 6-10 hours from now she'll look pretty good actually.

Erika is being hammered by right now and it just keeps increasing over time--since we're seeing a weaker and westward trend now with the models, I would be extremely surprised at this point if this can manage to even strengthen beyond where it's at.

I'm confident enough that I've put money down on it not making hurricane strength now.

[SouthFLTropics]

New convection is firing up and headed to the NW while the center heads north. Looks like the convection is going to settle right on top of the center and she'll be right on track. I agree with Deltadog that a split between the GFS, Euro, and HWRF camps looks to be like the way to go right now. NHC will nudge west on track at 5:00PM and possibly lower intensity some due to the latest Euro run.

SFT

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1745 UTC 16.6N 63.5W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/1145 UTC 16.7N 62.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
27/0545 UTC 17.2N 60.9W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
26/2345 UTC 17.0N 59.5W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1745 UTC 16.4N 58.2W T2.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/1145 UTC 16.2N 56.8W T3.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/0545 UTC 16.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
25/2345 UTC 16.0N 53.4W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
25/1745 UTC 15.8N 51.6W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 50.2W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA

[Steve H.]

Hammy, you can clearly see on latest visible loops that the LLC is wrapping up again and the convection will be over it shortly again. It is moving WNW currently and I believe the NHC is doing pretty well with this. In fact, from my vantage in Central Florida, I don't like what I'm seeing. Again this will pulse up and down for the next day or two, but I think the hurricane center is doing a great job despite a difficult storm to forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

What are the chances of rapid intensification once it jumps through the hoops and valleys of the Carribean?

[SeaBrz_FL]

start look like Floyd track off up florida coast

To me, looking more like '79 David AFTER it crossed Hispaniola and restarted again as a TS over extreme east Cuba. Bahamas fueled it up again.

Edit: Apologizing for my insensitivity. This storm literally destroyed many Lesser Antillean islands, Puerto Rico, and annihilated DR/Haiti. Over 2,000 lives lost. My little power outage was nothing.



I had little prop damage, but went without power for two miserable weeks.

[HurriGuy]

What are the chances of rapid intensification once it jumps through the hoops and valleys of the Carribean?

Fairly low because after it clears everything, it will still be trying to align itself. And along with the fact that she is a decent size circulation, and will probably be dealing with some land interaction on the south side, I would not expect it. Gradual strengthening.

[SouthFLTropics]

start look like Floyd track off up florida coast

To me, looking more like '79 David AFTER it crossed Hispaniola and restarted again as a TS over extreme east Cuba. Bahamas fueled it up again.



I had little prop damage, but went without power for two miserable weeks.

Despite being 4 years old at the time, I remember David well. It was my first storm and spawned my passion for tropical systems. 36 years later I'm here on S2K.

SFT

[Weatherboy1]

New convection is firing up and headed to the NW while the center heads north. Looks like the convection is going to settle right on top of the center and she'll be right on track. I agree with Deltadog that a split between the GFS, Euro, and HWRF camps looks to be like the way to go right now. NHC will nudge west on track at 5:00PM and possibly lower intensity some due to the latest Euro run.

SFT

Yes, it appears either the vortex that was spit out to the west is getting dragged back to the convection ... or the convection is getting dragged back to the vortex. Either way, if strong convection refires over or very near to the LLC, then Erika should re-intensify. That appears to be close to happening.

My two cents as a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!

[Hammy]

Hammy, you can clearly see on latest visible loops that the LLC is wrapping up again and the convection will be over it shortly again. It is moving WNW currently and I believe the NHC is doing pretty well with this. In fact, from my vantage in Central Florida, I don't like what I'm seeing. Again this will pulse up and down for the next day or two, but I think the hurricane center is doing a great job despite a difficult storm to forecast.

As per recon, winds are out of the ESE-SE the entire path south of the swirl so that is very likely an eddy based on that data, with the wind shift being over a degree south of it.