ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1941 Postby Recurve » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:33 pm

Agreed. But how much does the northwest-north turn depend on significant strengthening.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1942 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:35 pm

hurricanedude wrote:point is this isnt a wave.....
I understood your point. It's just that I wanted it to be known that it's possible to have tropical waves with such winds.

Anyway, you're correct. Erika's a tropical storm, not a tropical wave
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#1943 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:36 pm

spiral wrote:G'day ozonepete any opinion m8 on the chances of this storm clipping Florida and decoupling at that point. Some model guidence is leaning at a monster after it clears Florida


G'day to you. It still looks like it will clip Florida by strafing the coast from southeast to central Florida but I don't see any decoupling at all. There are also some good forecast data that indicate it could blow up into a very strong hurricane if it doesn't go over land in SE Florida. If it landfalls on the SE Florida coast it will be a little weaker due to land interaction (half of it would be over land). If it stays just east of Florida with most of its circulation over the 90F water, it could become much more intense.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1944 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:37 pm

At this point it is about to be everything, if does not gain a little north of west movement soon, it will have issues with the DR.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1945 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:38 pm

Image
Image

Seems pretty obvious to me there is a broad circulation in this general area moving on or slightly north of the NHC track...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1946 Postby sfwx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:40 pm

Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1947 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:40 pm

hurricanedude wrote:point is this isnt a wave.....


Image

Very broad, but closed so it isn't a wave.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1948 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
Image

Seems pretty obvious to me there is a broad circulation in this general area moving on or slightly north of the NHC track...


Looks like you're onto something there BlownAway...I think the actual circulation may be just south of there. That would be real close to where recon pegged it. Looks to be headed WNW right on NHC track.
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#1949 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:41 pm

Even if Erika misses Hispaniola, there have been storms that have been disrupted by the island even if it skirts north of it (i.e. Irene, Debby 2000).
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1950 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:42 pm

sfwx wrote:Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric


LOL...what's a TV antenna???
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#1951 Postby Weatherlover12 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:42 pm

Do we finally have a center to track?
If so, What are thoughts on the future of the storm?
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#1952 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:42 pm

I have it at 17.3N 64.9W

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Re:

#1953 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:43 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Even if Erika misses Hispaniola, there have been storms that have been disrupted by the island even if it skirts north of it (i.e. Irene, Debby 2000).


Agreed, but if I recall I think those storms all had decent circulations already. A storm with a weak circulation can survive the trek a bit better, and at times be helped by the land interaction, to tighten up the core.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1954 Postby sfwx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
sfwx wrote:Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric


LOL...what's a TV antenna???



Don't laugh! When the rain knocks out your dish signal, I am still watching TV out here. ;)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1955 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:45 pm

sfwx wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
sfwx wrote:Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric


LOL...what's a TV antenna???



Don't laugh! When the rain knocks out your dish signal, I am still watching TV out here. ;)

Not if the power goes out ;)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1956 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:45 pm

sfwx wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
sfwx wrote:Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric


LOL...what's a TV antenna???



Don't laugh! When the rain knocks out your dish signal, I am still watching TV out here. ;)


To funny.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1957 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:47 pm

sfwx wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
sfwx wrote:Watching Channel 10 from Miami tonight via TV antenna. Max Mayfield is still awesome. Ya'll down there are lucky to have him!! :)

Eric


LOL...what's a TV antenna???



Don't laugh! When the rain knocks out your dish signal, I am still watching TV out here. ;)


Well played sir, well played!!!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1958 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:48 pm

Santa Cruz station now 59 mph with 72 mph gust report by Retweeted Ada Monzón (@adamonzon):
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1959 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:49 pm

Honestly I thought that either the San Juan radar or RECON would clarify where the center is but I'm just seeing a mess. Although I still feel this will get its act together within the next 24 hours, right now I see a mess.
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#1960 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:50 pm

Imagine how frustrating for recon
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