Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting read about the upcoming winter...

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

That is a very interesting article. I need to start studying up on the upcoming winter as there are some interesting signals. I just took a glance at the NAO and the I cannot see anything conclusive from that as far as a relationship between July NAO and the following January. Interestingly July 2015 tied July 1993 for the lowest NAO since 1950 for all months with a -3.14. The 93-'94 winter NAO ended up being positive. The only other monthly NAO value below -3 was August 1980 the following winter NAO was fairly neutral.

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter Winter Winter.....We have been 103+ the last 6 days in a row and not a drop of rain for 34 consecutive days now. So yes I can't wait for Winter!!

[Tireman4]

My wants for Winter:

1. Cold
2. Frosty
3. Snowy
4. Fun

Thank you.

[Ntxw]

Latest CPC blog on ENSO.

"We have a relatively confident forecast for a strong event, and this provides long-range forecasters with information they can use to develop their seasonal forecasts. So, although there are no guarantees, the odds nonetheless really are tilted in specific directions in various parts of the U.S. as far as winter climate is concerned. A significant El Nino like this one provides an uncommon opportunity for people to anticipate the climate tendency well in advance of the main impact season..."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... alidocious


Translation: It doesn't get any easier than this. When you look for something that sticks out like a sore thumb, there it is. The long term winter forecast will be relatively simple, wet and colder than normal in the southern US. Warmer and drier than normal across the north. Look for the forecasts to trickle out the next few months. 50 shades of the Nino, dressed up in various ways, but the theme will likely be the same from the different meteorologists and agencies.

[Ptarmigan]

TPI (IPO) Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/IPOTPI/

TPI (ISO) Dataset
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/times ... isst2.data

The index is based on the difference between the SSTA averaged over the central equatorial Pacific and the average of the SSTA in the Northwest and Southwest Pacific. Different SST datasets have been used to calculate the index (HadISST2.1, HadISST, NOAA ERSST V3b). The regions used to calculate the index shown in the map above and are:
Region 1: 25°N–45°N, 140°E–145°W
Region 2: 10°S–10°N, 170°E–90°W
Region 3: 50°S–15°S, 150°E–160°W

This could be useful for El Nino and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

[Texas Snowman]

Joe Bastardi is in SE Texas right now.

Very interesting tweet.

@BigJoeBastardi: Told waitress last night to get me pictures of what lake Conroe looks like when there are a few inches of snow on the ground this winter

[Ptarmigan]

That is a very interesting article. I need to start studying up on the upcoming winter as there are some interesting signals. I just took a glance at the NAO and the I cannot see anything conclusive from that as far as a relationship between July NAO and the following January. Interestingly July 2015 tied July 1993 for the lowest NAO since 1950 for all months with a -3.14. The 93-'94 winter NAO ended up being positive. The only other monthly NAO value below -3 was August 1980 the following winter NAO was fairly neutral.

I used this.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... intpage.pl

I noticed in the Winter of 1993 to 1994, there was a polar vortex over Hudson Bay, Canada. There was ridging over Alaska, Eastern Russia, and Arctic Ocean. That would be a negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO).

EPO and WPO is like NAO/AO. Negative EPO has ridging over Alaska, while Positive EPO has troughing. Negative WPO is ridging over Eastern Russia, while Positive WPO has troughing.

A cold winter can still happen with a positive NAO, if EPO and/or WPO are negative. It is vice versa. December 1983 and February 1989 freeze happened with a positive NAO, but negative EPO and WPO.

[Ntxw]

Here is further evidence the EPO is very important even during El Nino. I collected all El Nino years (pre 2010 and post 1950). Went through EPO data and compared the EPO values of each month of each year (DJF) to see what the predominate EPO state was.

-EPO overall with El Nino



******
+EPO overall with El Nino



*****
Neutral EPO



So we can see how important it is. Even month by month it can dictate. 1963 and 2009 were two very cold Decembers for El Nino both had some of the most negative EPO's compared to their counterparts. Without the -EPO El Nino can blowtorch the country.

[Ralph's Weather]

Hopefully we can get some blocking this winter whether it be from the Atlantic or Pacific. Preferably the Pacific as that seems to focus the cold down the Plains while the Atlantic focuses the cold further east. There will be plenty of sub-tropical moisture so with any luck we should at least see a couple good Arctic air masses while the moisture is in place. Something to look at is the ratio of ice to snow during El Ninos in our area; I would imagine that ice is more likely with warm sub tropical air above the cold.

[Portastorm]

Some great posts above, especially Ntxw's fine work. Love it!

Interesting tweet today from a pro met. This info has got to have some implications for our winter season:

Anthony Sagliani (@anthonywx)
8/26/15, 8:18 AM
Not just El Nino. This is the warmest North Pacific as a whole since, at very least, 1950.

[Tireman4]

Please. Bring. It. Now. Please.

[gpsnowman]

Some great posts above, especially Ntxw's fine work. Love it!

Interesting tweet today from a pro met. This info has got to have some implications for our winter season:

Anthony Sagliani (@anthonywx)
8/26/15, 8:18 AM
Not just El Nino. This is the warmest North Pacific as a whole since, at very least, 1950.

Interesting post Porta. I think I mentioned this potential reality in a previous post. Might be in the summer thread I cant remember. If the warm pool there stays intact with a super Nino, Texans could be in for a fun ride. Exciting.

[Ntxw]

JB put out his forecast for the winter today. Essentially it is what everyone else is saying, El Nino. Warm northern tier, cold southern half. His axis of above average snowfall is from Texas to the mid Atlantic with two focus areas Texas and the southern Appalachians.

[Texas Snowman]

As pointed out in the Texas Fall 2015 thread, Bastardi is somewhat bullish on a big winter coming to Texas this year.

Sure hope so. Got to get some snow and ice to our friends in ATX and SE Texas!

[Portastorm]

As pointed out in the Texas Fall 2015 thread, Bastardi is somewhat bullish on a big winter coming to Texas this year.

Sure hope so. Got to get some snow and ice to our friends in ATX and SE Texas!

JB's not the only one ... Larry Cosgrove has been dropping some hints in his weekly newsletter that he expects a rough winter for the Southern Plains and Texas.

[Tireman4]

Please. Bring. It. Now.

I want to see Champ the Charger chase this year...

[Sambucol]

Are we going to have a colder than normal winter in southeast Texas this year? Just wondering what peoples feelings are. I'm hoping we do, and have snow, too.

[Quicksilver17]

I am hearing cold and wet!

[Texas Snowman]

This place is too dead right now.

Ok, to liven things up, here's a couple of questions to spur some debate.

First question - first snow/ice event in North Texas (outside the Panhandle and north of I-20), before or after Dec. 15th?

And second, in Central and/or SE Texas, first snow/ice event before or after Jan. 1st?

Go!

[Quicksilver17]

I would have to say-- after-- for both, but if I have to pick one over the other I would go with the north of I-20 event first.