ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

96L INVEST 150918 1200 29.3N 79.6W ATL 20 1008

[NDG]

It definitely has that subtropical look if not extra tropical.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an
upper-level trough. An area of low pressure has developed east of
the northern Florida peninsula overnight, and there is some
potential for this low to develop into a subtropical or tropical
cyclone during the next few days as it moves slowly northeastward
off the southeast coast of the United States. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
Florida Peninsula and coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina
today. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
and products issued by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[tolakram]

Live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

rammb loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=20

[NDG]

The shear is relentless and some of that dry air over the eastern US will be getting into the system.
The broad low pressure is well NW from the deep convection which keeps being pushed to the east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

[OuterBanker]

El Nino for president.

Convection all to the northeast away from center (although it has more convection than 09 or 95L). Should be shunted off to the northesast. All a good thing.

Weather here is darn near perfect. Both high temp and water the same (80). Tons of tourists (most I've seen in my 41 years here).

The better demographics of late summer and early fall (younger couples with children under school age and retired people which we lovingly refer to as Newlyweds and Nearly Deads).

And before you ask I was 9 when Donna hit so I qualify for the latter.

Any other year their would be concern for such close development. Not this year.

[northjaxpro]

yes Outerbanker, I totally agree with you .El Nino is the undisputed champ this year for sure. The story of the year weather wise. This winter sure looks interesting for Florida this year.

Measured nearly 6.5 inches of rainfall with this system impacting my area since late Monday. We are waterlogged here and drier air will finally work its way in here behind 96L as that system pulls away to the northeast this weekend.

[Nimbus]

I was going to wait till the tail end of the trough/Grace remnants were off the east coast of Florida before posting. I guess 96l is expected to be a hybrid storm racing north up the leading edge of the front?
They aren't expecting the front to cut off and linger are they?

[emeraldislenc]

Heard on the Weather Channel that they think 40% is too high. What are some other thoughts?

[NDG]

Heard on the Weather Channel that they think 40% is too high. What are some other thoughts?

For tropical development I also think is too high, for subtropical and or extra tropical development is about right, IMO.
GFS forecasts for UL winds to stay in the 25-35 knot range over the surface low, way too high for tropical organization.

[Riptide]

When are the hurricane models going to be run on 96L?

[wxman57]

Agree, NDG. Doesn't look tropical. EC & GFS indicate more of a frontal low.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Sheared mess

[Weatherwatcher98]

Most Likely a Shipping problem

[OuterBanker]

We are on the outside edge of whatever this will be. Here in the north Nags Head area we have the outside edge of the stratocumulus. Alll white no gray, toward Hatteras quite a few cumulus but I see no CB's. Apparently there will be little precip and what little there is will remain offshore. Breeze 10 to 15 and steady from the ENE. Air temp 80, H2O 78 2 to 3 ft break. Carolina blue skies. What the heck am I doing in the office. This is setting up like a NorEaster, not tropical. But the water is toasty unlike a cold core NorEaster. I guess the shear is what is hampering any warm core development.
Both GFS and Euro have elongated centers and nothing really developing. Both have long periods of fetch which could build seas. Haven't seen wave watch.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
northeast Florida coast is producing a large area of cloudiness and
showers mostly over the Atlantic waters. Environmental conditions
are expected to be somewhat conducive for this low to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days
while it moves slowly northeastward off the southeast coast of the
United States. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are still possible
over portions of the Florida Peninsula and coastal areas of Georgia
and South Carolina. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Hurricaneman]

Anyone think they may find Joaquin tomorrow

[emeraldislenc]

Good question! Only time will tell!!

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
northeast Florida coast is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms well to the east and south of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
this low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during
the next few days while it moves slowly northeastward off the
southeast coast of the United States. For more information on this
low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[wxman57]

Anyone think they may find Joaquin tomorrow

No.