Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Yes! Happy Autumnal Equinox!! Now maybe it will start FEELING like Fall!


This QPF map is a little more encouraging.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yes we need rain big time, my lawn is looking pretty stressed as well. I'm no longer watering it since it has slowed on growing any.

Until SJS becomes active across the southern states, then we'll stay dry and warm, but once things start to turn, the increased clouds and rain chances with bring our cooler than normal temps as forecasted making that firewood beneficial for this Winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As Texans, we cant expect too much rain over the summer going into Sept. Just have to be patient, trust me, the rain will come this winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest Update on El Nino

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Sept 21, 2015 by The CPC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

I am concerned this El Nino could foil our winter, not just Texas but the country as a whole. Again I want to wait until I see more evidence from the EPO but so far the signs are not great. The GOA has cooled much recently, still warm but the process thst cools it has continued. Also reports off the coast of Peru show water anomalies 5-6C above normal, that is in Nino 1+2 area.

[Brent]

I hope this is not a sign, I mean... we're not alone:

Also not encouraged by the lack of consistency in showing cooler weather out in the long range

[Ntxw]

I'm not yet concerned that the immediate weather will persist. Last October was a top 10 warmest ever but didn't have implications.

I want to see improvements in the Pacific, a wet fall and winter is a good bet but we need cold air source.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: I'm not yet concerned that the immediate weather will persist. Last October was a top 10 warmest ever but didn't have implications.

I want to see improvements in the Pacific, a wet fall and winter is a good bet but we need cold air source.

Ok, Ntxw, you are the expert. The longer the cold stays up there, the better the chances, right? Also, Larry called for a warm to normal October back in early September. So far, he is right. Even with normal, the temperature is still tolerable in the low to mid 80's. By the way, I remember the only October we baked. That was 2004. Great Golly Miss Molly, that was a bad one. Halloween was really bad...It did snow in December, if memory serves.


Houston- Warmest Octobers Ever

Top 10
Warmest
77.5 2004
76.7 1963
76.5 1947
76.3 1962
76.0 1919
75.7 1941
75.6 1934
75.6 1931
74.8 1950
74.8 1926
Halloween......88 - 2004


So...hopefully it is cooler...

[TheProfessor]

Good right now is that the snow is advancing earlier than normal in our source regions for cold air.

[Brent]

:uarrow: I'm not yet concerned that the immediate weather will persist. Last October was a top 10 warmest ever but didn't have implications.

I want to see improvements in the Pacific, a wet fall and winter is a good bet but we need cold air source.

lol I did find that interesting... last October was one of the warmest and then November was one of the coldest

So perhaps it's not the worst thing that October is warm... I just want these endless 90s gone.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: Good right now is that the snow is advancing earlier than normal in our source regions for cold air.

Not really, Ice pack across the Arctic Circle is behind what it was last year on Sept 22, snow pack is about equal to maybe less.

2015


2014

[fendie]

Happy astronomical fall! Our days now become shorter than nights!

At least at my latitude (Houston) it's not til the 28th that my days are equal to my nights due to atmospheric refraction, etc...

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Good right now is that the snow is advancing earlier than normal in our source regions for cold air.

Not really, Ice pack across the Arctic Circle is behind what it was last year on Sept 22, snow pack is about equal to maybe less.

2015


2014

The Article Circle is not really our Source region though, I'm talking about Alaska and Western Canada.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: I'm not yet concerned that the immediate weather will persist. Last October was a top 10 warmest ever but didn't have implications.

I want to see improvements in the Pacific, a wet fall and winter is a good bet but we need cold air source.

lol I did find that interesting... last October was one of the warmest and then November was one of the coldest

So perhaps it's not the worst thing that October is warm... I just want these endless 90s gone.

November's cold snap was a by product of Typhoon Nuri.

The November 2014 Bering Sea cyclone was the most intense extratropical cyclone (also a bomb cyclone) ever recorded in the Bering Sea, which formed from a new storm developing out of the low-level circulation that separated from Typhoon Nuri, which soon absorbed the latter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still very very early. As Ntx said a few weeks back, the true advance begins in October. Some snow storms are coming through according to models in the next 10 days though.

As far as Ntx comment about foiling our winter and worried about the cold air. Take a look at '72-'73, '82-'83, 09-10 winters for encouragement. These are all pretty cold analogs for texas. They all were El nino years AND, what i think will need to be key this year, is the cold pool south of Greenland. This should encourage blocking and a -NAO. This should position the PV in a favorable position for us once Winter gets going. Now the jet will be strong in Canada so it wont always be dumping cold air down like we have seen the last few years but im confident we will see some strong blasts come down.

The warm blob in NE Pac really spoiled us the last few years, lets be honest lol. One thing my amateur met career cant figure out, is why we are expecting Feb to be brutal vs Dec or any other winter month. Likely position of the sun etc but i have no further knowledge on specific months.

[JDawg512]

I'll probably be yelled at for saying it but I'll consider this a perfect winter if we just get tons rain. The cold isn't a factor whether or not we have a good winter IMO. It's going to be cool in any event if we have long cloudy wet stretches. To me it will be chilly enough since I'm not as much of a cold lover as the majority here, though I am no Heat Miser. I prefer not to go outdoors when the temp rises into the 90s lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'll probably be yelled at for saying it but I'll consider this a perfect winter if we just get tons rain. The cold isn't a factor whether or not we have a good winter IMO. It's going to be cool in any event if we have long cloudy wet stretches. To me it will be chilly enough since I'm not as much of a cold lover as the majority here, though I am no Heat Miser. I prefer not to go outdoors when the temp rises into the 90s lol.

With this El nino, i think you'll be just fine. I think October will be a wet one personally.

[aggiecutter]

I am concerned this El Nino could foil our winter, not just Texas but the country as a whole. Again I want to wait until I see more evidence from the EPO but so far the signs are not great. The GOA has cooled much recently, still warm but the process thst cools it has continued. Also reports off the coast of Peru show water anomalies 5-6C above normal, that is in Nino 1+2 area.

That is my line of thinking, also. I see a wet-mild to cool mid-late fall and early winter, with a lot of severe weather. I think January through mid-February torch and a cool end of February into March. If one those El-Nino systems does meet up with some arctic air during January or early February, there could be a very significant winter storm. However, with the current setup, I just don't see many arctic intrusions coming this winter. Looks like Pacific air will rule the roost across most of the country.

[Ntxw]

Still very very early. As Ntx said a few weeks back, the true advance begins in October. Some snow storms are coming through according to models in the next 10 days though.

As far as Ntx comment about foiling our winter and worried about the cold air. Take a look at '72-'73, '82-'83, 09-10 winters for encouragement. These are all pretty cold analogs for texas. They all were El nino years AND, what i think will need to be key this year, is the cold pool south of Greenland. This should encourage blocking and a -NAO. This should position the PV in a favorable position for us once Winter gets going. Now the jet will be strong in Canada so it wont always be dumping cold air down like we have seen the last few years but im confident we will see some strong blasts come down.

The warm blob in NE Pac really spoiled us the last few years, lets be honest lol. One thing my amateur met career cant figure out, is why we are expecting Feb to be brutal vs Dec or any other winter month. Likely position of the sun etc but i have no further knowledge on specific months.

It's just something I've been thinking about for awhile. The stronger the El Nino event is the higher the risk of North America being flooded with warmth. The northern half to the northern third of the US will have a warmer than average winter. 1982-83 was rather mild for us relatively speaking and snowless. It was a super with 1997. 1972 was also a super but barely so, you could even argue it should be categorized with 1957 and 1965. I'd be much more comfortable if this was a moderate Nino event like 09 and 02 or 1963. As mentioned we need to watch the EPO, if trofs keeps digging into Alaska and/or Nino 1+2 continues to rise with the Nino we're in trouble.

No need to panic though just early thoughts. We have a long way to go, just know the risks . I'm going to have to dig into that cold pool theory of yours. I know in very cold winters there is a deep low height anomaly stretching from that pool back to the central and eastern US, 09-10; 1977-1978

[TheProfessor]

I felt like this Winter could be closer to 1957 until you said Nino 1+2 were rising, if we can get the Nino to go Modoki it should be a fun one.