ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

But 4mb drop in an hour?

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: But 4mb drop in an hour?

That is a decent drop, but you can't extrapolate one 4 mb drop between a set passes and call it RI. There are so many factors at play that could have caused that: missing the true center the first time, gravity waves, etc.

[TheStormExpert]

My question is, is Joaquin vertically stacked now?

[CrazyC83]

Regardless I think 55 kt might be a reasonable intensity guess.

[tropicwatch]

Might be close to being stacked.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25.5&lon=-71&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=8

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291843
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 34 20150929
183430 2525N 07123W 8270 01662 0012 +159 +152 297036 038 024 003 05
183500 2524N 07124W 8275 01660 0009 +162 +157 295037 038 026 002 05
183530 2523N 07125W 8266 01667 0008 +172 +145 298038 039 026 002 00
183600 2522N 07127W 8274 01659 0008 +175 +137 298037 038 027 001 03
183630 2521N 07128W 8277 01660 0011 +175 +143 300037 038 024 001 00
183700 2520N 07129W 8270 01669 0013 +172 +153 302038 040 026 003 00
183730 2518N 07130W 8275 01665 0014 +172 +153 299042 043 026 001 00
183800 2517N 07131W 8270 01668 0015 +172 +148 299042 043 024 002 00
183830 2516N 07132W 8275 01664 0014 +175 +147 298041 042 027 001 00
183900 2515N 07134W 8271 01671 0017 +174 +149 300042 044 027 001 00
183930 2514N 07135W 8266 01677 0025 +166 +158 298041 044 026 006 00
184000 2513N 07136W 8292 01648 //// +155 //// 302040 044 026 004 01
184030 2512N 07137W 8272 01671 0026 +165 +160 302040 042 026 001 01
184100 2510N 07138W 8286 01661 0029 +165 +148 302040 041 025 002 00
184130 2509N 07139W 8274 01675 0029 +171 +137 303040 041 025 001 03
184200 2508N 07141W 8270 01682 0033 +168 +128 301042 043 026 001 00
184230 2507N 07142W 8269 01683 0032 +171 +119 301042 043 027 000 00
184300 2506N 07143W 8273 01678 0032 +174 +114 301041 043 025 000 00
184330 2505N 07144W 8271 01681 0033 +171 +129 296039 040 025 001 00
184400 2503N 07145W 8273 01679 0035 +167 +143 297040 041 025 001 03
$$
;

[tatertawt24]

Might be close to being stacked.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25.5&lon=-71&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=8

Am I seeing hot towers starting to pop up in the last few frames?

[TheStormExpert]

Might be close to being stacked.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25.5&lon=-71&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=8

Once Joaquin is completely vertically stacked it may take off!

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 55kts

11L JOAQUIN 150929 1800 26.0N 70.8W ATL 55 992

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291852
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 29/18:17:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
070 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1353 m
D. 59 kt
E. 062 deg 7 nm
F. 131 deg 61 kt
G. 062 deg 21 nm
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
I. 16 C / 1673 m
J. 22 C / 1672 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0211A JOAQUIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 053 / 21 NM 18:11:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 069 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
50 PERCENT BAND AROUND EAST HALF OF CENTER
850 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR RADAR BAND
;

[Hammy]

18z Best Track up to 55kts

11L JOAQUIN 150929 1800 26.0N 70.8W ATL 55 992

looks like my forecast ship is sinking quickly.

Center still appears to be on the edge of the convection but recon indicates otherwise, are there still small mesovortices rotating around the outer edge?

[Weatherlover12]

Should I watch this in FL since it keeps moving WSW?

[drezee]

I remember Jim Cantore saying something like this before a hurricane. If you want to remember how a building right along the coast looked, take a picture before the hurricane gets here. It may be gone...

I cannot imagine the weather channel coverage if the "Son of Sandy"...Trademark... scenario unfolds...

[TheStormExpert]

Should I watch this in FL since it keeps moving WSW?

Wouldn't hurt, but models show a sharp turn North and possibly Northeast once it approaches far Eastern Bahamas.

[Hammy]

Should I watch this in FL since it keeps moving WSW?

Given the course of events today I would say everyone along the east coast should keep a close eye on it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like its trying to build an eyewall

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 18:11:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ENE (69°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
50 PERCENT BAND AROUND EAST HALF OF CENTER
850 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR RADAR BAND

[tatertawt24]

VDM now indicating an eyewall is forming?

Edit: Beat me to the punch.

[TheStormExpert]

VDM now indicating an eyewall is forming?

Edit: Beat me to the punch.

Maybe the Euro is right after all? Hmmm...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291853
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 35 20150929
184430 2502N 07146W 8272 01685 0035 +171 +145 295039 040 025 001 03
184500 2501N 07147W 8274 01681 0036 +168 +149 298042 046 023 002 00
184530 2500N 07149W 8264 01692 0038 +165 +164 299040 045 023 004 00
184600 2459N 07150W 8278 01675 0032 +170 +169 308033 039 027 003 00
184630 2458N 07151W 8272 01684 0045 +156 +154 305036 040 027 005 03
184700 2456N 07152W 8273 01684 0041 +167 +136 303038 040 025 003 00
184730 2455N 07153W 8275 01685 0041 +171 +127 302039 039 024 001 03
184800 2454N 07154W 8270 01691 0043 +169 +128 303038 039 025 001 00
184830 2453N 07156W 8274 01687 0044 +169 +134 301038 038 023 001 03
184900 2452N 07157W 8269 01691 0043 +169 +134 300040 040 023 001 00
184930 2451N 07158W 8272 01689 0046 +166 +135 299039 040 023 001 00
185000 2449N 07159W 8273 01689 0047 +165 +143 301039 039 024 001 03
185030 2448N 07200W 8272 01690 0046 +166 +144 304039 039 025 000 00
185100 2447N 07201W 8275 01686 0046 +168 +143 309039 040 023 001 00
185130 2446N 07203W 8278 01692 0048 +170 +144 308038 040 023 001 03
185200 2447N 07204W 8155 01819 0050 +164 +142 309034 036 018 001 00
185230 2448N 07205W 7919 02072 0055 +148 +128 312033 033 022 001 00
185300 2449N 07206W 7660 02346 0042 +135 +109 312032 032 025 000 00
185330 2451N 07207W 7387 02652 0036 +126 +078 317032 033 026 001 03
185400 2452N 07208W 7156 02920 0036 +112 +059 317033 033 022 001 03
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

This has been the case all summer long!

@BigJoeBastardi: That warm water loves to pump ridges and major high pressures over NE Canada into Atlantic famous for eastern storms