ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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wxmann_91
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#901 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:14 am

EC looks like it's shifted right. Way OTS this run.
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Re:

#902 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:14 am

Alyono wrote:through 27 hours, it is SOUTH of the central Bahamas. It has crossed


Is this a crossing over long island and/or exuma?
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Re: Re:

#903 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:14 am

caneman wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro: Joaquin to stay out to sea. Fourth run in a row. The King is back? Of course, the King was the first to show a big US hit. But we can forgive him for that since that was when that was way out in forecast time. ;)
of course that could also mean they could end up being wrong 4 times in a row :lol:


Good point! But like a true leader, he's not afraid to take a stance on his own lol.

To answer your other Q, no, it ended up a good bit further east than the 12Z Euro believe it or not.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#904 Postby TimeZone » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:15 am

Euro looks way too right.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#905 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:16 am

Wow that is a huge ejection. Either they will be very right or very embarrassed. One way or another, one of models will be hugely embarrassed.
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#906 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:18 am

Well, we will find out for sure within the next 48 hours if the EURO is right or not with its OTS solution. I say 48 hours from now because by that time we should have a much clearer indication on the situation with the track by that time (hopefully)
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#907 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:18 am

LarryWx wrote:
caneman wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro: Joaquin to stay out to sea. Fourth run in a row. The King is back? Of course, the King was the first to show a big US hit. But we can forgive him for that since that was when that was way out in forecast time. ;)
of course that could also mean they could end up being wrong 4 times in a row :lol:


Good point! But like a true leader, he's not afraid to take a stance on his own lol.

To answer your other Q, no, it ended up a good bit further east than the 12Z Euro believe it or not.
not a leader larry. In fact the last 3 years the Euro and gfs are neck and neck according to the nhc. Careful, I'd hate to see you have to eat crow. :wink:
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#908 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:19 am

it spends more time in the Bahamas on this run. Think that's why it shifted right
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#909 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:20 am

caneman wrote:Wow that is a huge ejection. Either they will be very right or very embarrassed. One way or another, one of models will be hugely embarrassed.


In my opinion, and the way I view and see models, I appreciate all the models and their respective developers. Despite all the modern advances, we still have a lot to learn about weather. So no matter how wrong a model can be at certain times, they do make lives for weather forecasters much easier. Creating forecasts and warning the general public about storm impacts would be a lot difficult if it weren't for these models.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#910 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:20 am

I'm not sure if the Euro is on crack or brilliant. There really is no in between.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#911 Postby TimeZone » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:22 am

caneman wrote:I'm not sure if the Euro is on crack or brilliant. There really is no in between.


:lol: This pretty much sums it up. It's either going to become king again or look completely foolish.
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#912 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:23 am

turned north after 96 hours
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Re:

#913 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:24 am

Alyono wrote:it spends more time in the Bahamas on this run. Think that's why it shifted right


I read a promet saying earlier than more time in the Bahamas would make it miss the trough and head poleward toward the weakness in the Atlantic high instead, therefore sending it out to sea? Is that the situation it's coming up with?
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Re:

#914 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:24 am

Alyono wrote:turned north after 96 hours


So the later portion of the track is further left now?
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#915 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:25 am

Alyono, does it bother you or seem believable that it would stay in the Bahamas that long?,just doesn't seem right.
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#916 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:26 am

I think I'm going to pull out a map and throw 30 darts at it, I'll call it the Bruno-Dart Ensemble. It looks like it'll be just as accurate...geeze!
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Re:

#917 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:27 am

caneman wrote:Alyono, does it bother you or seem believable that it would stay in the Bahamas that long?,just doesn't seem right.

I'm not Alyono but Joaquin has already stayed in the Bahamas much longer than anyone first imagined. The trend continues to be further S short-term. So Joaquin staying down in the Bahamas for longer would follow that trend.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#918 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:27 am

Hammy wrote:
Alyono wrote:turned north after 96 hours


So the later portion of the track is further left now?


Yes after being further right than the 12 Euro earlier in the track.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#919 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:28 am

I think it spent too much time in the Bahamas and maybe went to far south.whst is so amazing if you go back and read the first few advisories they gave it hardly any chance. The models have had a tough time this year!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#920 Postby Blizzard96x » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:31 am

Well the Euro is still east but it showed hints of it wanting to recurve between hours 96 and 120.
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