ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

When is the last time we had a category 4 storm without a clear eye? I thought this was something that happened well in advance.

[Weatherboy1]

Just curious, but if the main steering mechanism is going to be a cut off low that breaks off of the main trough, is there any possibility Joaquin gets "left behind?" The trough is obviously digging, but if it splits and you just end up with a low in the SE U.S. ... AND Joaquin keeps digging SW/WSW ... is that going to be enough to shunt him quickly off to the north? Also, I'm curious about the impact of that small low/trough off the east coast of FL. Could that complicate modeling here?

Just a semi-educated amateur; listen to the experts!

[OuterBanker]

All hail the European! Apperently it has scored as the winner again. Now feeling better about an out to sea scenario. The nor'easter is another story.

You really need to have the disclaimer on posts like this. It can confuse new people to the boards.

Exactly!

Yes, it was only wishful thinking and simply choosing the model of personal choice.

Some personal choice involved did include Joe Bastardl's prognostication this am. Of course his adherence to the Euro is legendary.

Truth is that this year it seems that no model has done that well. It's been anyone's guess.

In fact I didn't think any storm had the possibility of obtaining the strength that Joaquin has.

I'm already concerned for the Bahamas. I just hope it just goes out to sea and only increase the ACE and nothing else.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011622
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 50 20151001
161300 2143N 07248W 6968 03088 9997 +084 +084 214051 053 045 012 00
161330 2142N 07246W 6967 03091 0005 +076 //// 215050 050 043 012 05
161400 2143N 07244W 6960 03099 //// +075 //// 214048 049 /// /// 05
161430 2145N 07244W 6970 03082 //// +071 //// 212045 046 /// /// 05
161500 2145N 07245W 6974 03092 9998 +081 +078 213044 045 042 012 03
161530 2146N 07247W 6966 03088 9992 +080 +079 211045 045 044 014 00
161600 2147N 07248W 6966 03087 9999 +080 +080 207049 050 047 012 00
161630 2149N 07250W 6969 03081 0008 +079 +079 206051 051 047 012 00
161700 2150N 07251W 6967 03079 0000 +079 +079 205052 053 048 009 00
161730 2151N 07253W 6965 03077 9993 +078 +078 204052 053 048 011 00
161800 2153N 07254W 6969 03071 0004 +075 +075 203052 054 050 013 03
161830 2154N 07255W 6969 03068 9998 +077 +077 205057 057 051 011 00
161900 2156N 07257W 6965 03072 9992 +082 +082 210057 057 056 010 00
161930 2157N 07258W 6969 03061 9983 +089 +089 216057 057 055 009 00
162000 2158N 07300W 6967 03062 9971 +095 +095 221055 057 057 008 00
162030 2159N 07301W 6965 03062 9976 +094 +094 218056 058 057 015 00
162100 2201N 07302W 6966 03059 9975 +095 +095 215054 056 059 022 03
162130 2202N 07304W 6964 03055 9973 +094 +094 211060 062 063 023 00
162200 2203N 07305W 6974 03040 9968 +093 +093 212059 061 062 024 00
162230 2205N 07306W 6964 03053 9967 +096 +096 212059 061 063 024 03
$$
;

[drezee]

Based on Sat and Recon trends...I am willing to bet a Coca-Cola that it will miss the 0z point to the NW. Looks like it will be NW of 12Z GFS and yesterday's 0Z Euro by 0z tonight...just an observation...

12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

I have to say I feel pretty bad for those in the Bahamas, they had virtually no warning.

[Steve H.]

He looks like his movement is now about 260 degrees and picking up a little speed.

Not an official forecast!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011632
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 51 20151001
162300 2206N 07308W 6965 03049 9962 +101 +101 222065 066 065 033 00
162330 2207N 07309W 6962 03051 9959 +101 +101 231068 072 062 027 00
162400 2208N 07310W 6961 03058 9957 +104 +104 220057 060 060 020 00
162430 2209N 07312W 6979 03036 9960 +097 +097 218053 058 058 016 03
162500 2211N 07313W 6957 03066 9959 +098 +098 214054 057 054 015 03
162530 2212N 07314W 6966 03053 9969 +096 +096 213052 054 053 014 03
162600 2213N 07316W 6972 03043 9975 +085 +085 206059 061 054 015 03
162630 2215N 07317W 6968 03048 9958 +090 +090 209060 062 055 014 03
162700 2216N 07319W 6973 03037 9949 +093 +093 211061 063 055 016 00
162730 2217N 07320W 6968 03041 9951 +100 +100 214057 062 052 022 03
162800 2219N 07321W 6952 03054 9944 +104 +104 226050 057 062 036 00
162830 2220N 07323W 6977 03021 9928 +105 +105 229045 048 060 023 03
162900 2221N 07324W 6960 03030 9915 +102 +102 218049 052 056 016 00
162930 2222N 07325W 6989 03012 9933 +109 +109 216058 064 056 037 00
163000 2224N 07327W 6961 03038 9940 +107 +107 226055 062 060 027 00
163030 2225N 07328W 6965 03028 9930 +109 +109 216061 064 058 026 03
163100 2226N 07329W 6983 03013 9927 +115 +115 226055 062 058 036 03
163130 2227N 07331W 6975 03017 9923 +104 +104 233057 057 059 030 03
163200 2228N 07332W 6971 03023 9932 +101 +101 233065 070 052 019 00
163230 2230N 07333W 6975 03007 9927 +098 +098 228065 067 052 024 00
$$
;

[abajan]

I asked this earlier but it may have gotten lost. Is it possible for a very large, deep hurricane to more or less 'make its own rules' with regard to local steering mechanisms? I thought I remembered Dr. Neil Frank (former NHC director who worked for the CBS affiliate in Houston for many years after) talking about this phenomenon during Ike, and I think Gilbert as well back in the day.

-Steve

Yep. I recall hearing that on a number of occasions.

[NDG]

Unless it is a wobble, the West turn has begun...if so it will not go as far south as the Euro said last night...Euro had it near 22.5 by 0z tonight just S of the southern tip of Long island...

I am looking at the HR Euro from last night, the lowest latitude that it has it going is 22.9N at 3z tonight.
Per the recon's last fix it is at 23.06N, moving WSW now so there's a chance it could still get below the 23rd latitude.

[petit_bois]

I asked this earlier but it may have gotten lost. Is it possible for a very large, deep hurricane to more or less 'make its own rules' with regard to local steering mechanisms? I thought I remembered Dr. Neil Frank (former NHC director who worked for the CBS affiliate in Houston for many years after) talking about this phenomenon during Ike, and I think Gilbert as well back in the day.

-Steve

Yep. I recall hearing that on a number of occasions.

Yes.. when there are little to no steering currents. We have very specific all be it projected steering currents with this one though.

[Blinhart]

What would happen if the front breaks up or stalls or starts moving back North, wouldn't this change all the steering currents.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011642
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 52 20151001
163300 2231N 07334W 6976 03002 9924 +098 +098 231064 068 051 015 00
163330 2232N 07335W 6968 03005 9906 +100 +100 231065 066 050 015 03
163400 2233N 07337W 6976 02990 9898 +102 +102 236068 070 054 013 00
163430 2234N 07338W 6971 02988 9875 +106 //// 241069 070 068 010 05
163500 2235N 07339W 6976 02977 9861 +110 +110 239070 071 062 010 00
163530 2236N 07340W 6975 02976 9852 +110 +110 237070 071 055 012 00
163600 2237N 07341W 6971 02969 9857 +108 +108 235074 076 056 011 00
163630 2239N 07343W 6970 02965 9841 +108 +108 238076 077 059 014 00
163700 2240N 07344W 6970 02955 9838 +113 +113 238079 082 060 015 00
163730 2241N 07345W 6970 02948 9824 +117 +117 239081 086 061 018 03
163800 2242N 07346W 6969 02940 9804 +120 +120 237083 085 064 015 00
163830 2243N 07347W 6972 02920 9783 +119 +119 235084 085 068 014 00
163900 2244N 07348W 6973 02908 9779 +117 +117 235085 087 070 014 00
163930 2245N 07349W 6963 02908 9756 +121 +121 241085 086 072 015 00
164000 2246N 07351W 6974 02878 9739 +122 +122 243092 095 074 019 00
164030 2247N 07352W 6973 02860 9719 +122 +122 239093 096 075 016 00
164100 2248N 07353W 6977 02840 9703 +121 +121 238101 102 079 015 00
164130 2249N 07354W 6971 02825 9677 +117 +117 238103 104 081 019 00
164200 2250N 07355W 6967 02815 9654 +117 +117 237103 104 083 031 00
164230 2251N 07356W 6985 02762 9639 +116 +116 236109 111 088 047 00
$$
;

Next pass underway. 111 kt FL so far, and still a ways to go to the eye. SFMR likely unreliable.

[Jevo]

A lot of what ifs right now and that is great for discussion, but with the GFS and Euro coming more and more into consensus each run it's difficult to go against them.

[NDG]

Based on Sat and Recon trends...I am willing to bet a Coca-Cola that it will miss the 0z point to the NW. Looks like it will be NW of 12Z GFS and yesterday's 0Z Euro by 0z tonight...just an observation...

12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Last night's Euro forecasted Joaquin to be at 23.1N & 74.3W at 15z, so the forecast was just a little west of the last fix from the recon at 15:20z

[Sanibel]

Joaquin passed over uninhabited Samana Cay.


San Salvador Island: Winds 71mph ENE - Gusts 93mph

[jlauderdal]

I have to say I feel pretty bad for those in the Bahamas, they had virtually no warning.

They knew it was coming..construction in the bahamas is top notch..its still a major but they are on par with Bermuda in dealing with major hurricanes before, during and after..they will fare better than anywhere in the usa ever would in a similar setup. Recovery will be prompt, i am not minimizing the effects just pointing out the ability to deal with these systems.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011652
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 53 20151001
164300 2252N 07357W 6970 02752 9606 +122 +122 233109 111 094 066 00
164330 2253N 07358W 6961 02729 9567 +129 +129 236102 110 103 060 00
164400 2254N 07359W 6991 02658 9500 +120 //// 240090 100 114 021 01
164430 2255N 07400W 6940 02697 9456 +149 //// 239066 075 111 016 01
164500 2257N 07401W 6969 02644 9417 +157 //// 237052 062 103 012 05
164530 2258N 07402W 6970 02623 9385 +168 +166 235037 044 051 007 03
164600 2259N 07404W 6972 02609 9354 +189 +168 234023 029 /// /// 03
164630 2301N 07405W 6967 02606 9352 +187 +143 199015 022 026 007 03
164700 2302N 07406W 6963 02617 9360 +184 +117 147013 015 /// /// 03
164730 2302N 07408W 6978 02593 9353 +192 +100 102006 010 011 007 03
164800 2301N 07410W 6973 02600 9361 +182 +112 005010 014 011 008 00
164830 2301N 07412W 6953 02633 9379 +168 +123 327018 020 017 008 03
164900 2302N 07413W 6960 02627 9383 +166 +121 350024 028 021 009 00
164930 2303N 07415W 6973 02615 9399 +157 +131 007034 036 030 009 00
165000 2304N 07416W 6966 02640 9424 +144 +144 018041 046 043 008 03
165030 2305N 07417W 6972 02643 9439 +149 +148 023052 056 044 009 00
165100 2306N 07418W 6959 02677 9453 +144 +142 022058 059 049 010 00
165130 2307N 07419W 6963 02685 9472 +143 +135 025071 077 073 012 00
165200 2308N 07421W 6971 02692 9505 +146 +145 029093 101 086 026 00
165230 2309N 07422W 6977 02714 9550 +140 +140 032102 105 097 017 00
$$
;

RMW growing in size. 111 kt FL (114 kt SFMR likely suspicious). Pressure 935mb.

[NDG]

Now down to the 23rd Latitude, per the recon, but it is beginning to gain more longitude so we might be seeing a start to a more westerly track, but still at a slow pace.

[cfltrib]

Church Grove on Crooked Island reporting 111 mph winds with gusts to 144!