ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030426
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 54 20151003
041630 2345N 07448W 6965 03052 9909 +115 +056 301058 060 /// /// 03
041700 2346N 07446W 6959 03055 9906 +110 +075 300055 056 /// /// 03
041730 2348N 07445W 6960 03050 9904 +110 +080 301057 057 /// /// 03
041800 2349N 07444W 6964 03044 9898 +114 +085 302059 059 /// /// 03
041830 2350N 07442W 6959 03048 9895 +107 +104 301059 060 /// /// 05
041900 2351N 07441W 6962 03043 9894 +108 +103 298058 060 042 002 01
041930 2353N 07439W 6961 03041 9886 +118 +074 302053 055 041 002 00
042000 2354N 07438W 6951 03050 9893 +109 +077 299053 054 041 002 00
042030 2355N 07437W 6974 03022 9892 +109 +085 303057 057 042 003 00
042100 2357N 07435W 6963 03030 9897 +098 +092 304057 058 047 001 03
042130 2358N 07434W 6962 03027 //// +098 //// 306056 058 071 000 05
042200 2359N 07433W 6967 03019 //// +098 //// 308059 061 /// /// 05
042230 2400N 07431W 6969 03014 9874 +104 +091 308061 063 /// /// 05
042300 2402N 07430W 6966 03014 9874 +107 +089 308065 066 /// /// 03
042330 2403N 07429W 6966 03010 9872 +105 +090 308065 067 /// /// 03
042400 2404N 07427W 6969 03002 9858 +113 +081 310069 070 /// /// 03
042430 2405N 07426W 6965 03003 9852 +115 +078 310071 071 /// /// 03
042500 2406N 07425W 6967 02997 9852 +114 +078 308072 073 /// /// 03
042530 2408N 07423W 6962 02997 9854 +115 +107 306070 074 047 008 00
042600 2409N 07422W 6972 02986 9843 +114 +082 306076 078 043 011 03
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Major hurricane force winds for a couple hours as the eye passes is one thing, but some of those island had over 24 hours worth of strong winds.

[ozonepete]

Though I hope it isn't as bad as feared, the devastation is likely historical. I feel so bad for those people. It's hard to fathom going through those conditions for that long.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030435
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 55 20151003
042630 2410N 07421W 6967 02987 9841 +111 +086 308078 079 /// /// 03
042700 2411N 07419W 6967 02980 9835 +110 +091 307078 079 047 004 03
042730 2412N 07418W 6963 02980 9830 +109 +091 305080 081 /// /// 03
042800 2414N 07417W 6967 02969 9816 +115 +094 301079 081 048 007 03
042830 2415N 07415W 6969 02962 9810 +115 +102 300079 079 /// /// 03
042900 2416N 07414W 6965 02960 9802 +114 +102 301081 081 /// /// 03
042930 2418N 07413W 6965 02953 9795 +115 +099 300083 084 057 005 03
043000 2419N 07411W 6973 02931 9786 +112 +101 300084 085 057 005 03
043030 2420N 07410W 6963 02934 9775 +113 +094 299087 088 /// /// 03
043100 2421N 07408W 6968 02922 9759 +120 +099 298087 088 060 005 03
043130 2423N 07407W 6970 02907 9741 +124 +099 300089 090 062 008 03
043200 2424N 07406W 6964 02896 9728 +117 +109 301092 094 064 016 03
043230 2425N 07404W 6970 02870 9714 +117 +116 300097 098 060 037 00
043300 2426N 07403W 6961 02862 9706 +117 +117 302101 105 073 034 00
043330 2428N 07402W 6965 02838 9683 +118 +118 304105 108 066 043 03
043400 2429N 07400W 6957 02824 9654 +123 +123 306109 111 072 040 03
043430 2430N 07359W 6969 02788 9625 +130 +130 312110 112 063 058 03
043500 2431N 07358W 6968 02765 9589 +134 +134 314103 114 093 029 03
043530 2432N 07357W 6974 02734 9548 +137 +137 315088 094 092 027 00
043600 2433N 07356W 6958 02733 9519 +140 +140 315071 084 083 014 00
$$
;

114 kt FL, 92 kt SFMR. Someone else please take over.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'll take over for this pass.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

SW Quadrant

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 110 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 114 knots
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 92 knots

URNT15 KNHC 030445
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 56 20151003
043630 2435N 07355W 6958 02721 9505 +143 +143 316049 060 071 009 03
043700 2436N 07354W 6965 02706 //// +142 //// 316039 043 049 005 05
043730 2438N 07353W 6965 02695 //// +145 //// 309031 036 039 003 01
043800 2439N 07352W 6963 02690 9467 +151 +140 298024 029 030 002 00
043830 2441N 07351W 6966 02681 9459 +151 +138 280014 021 026 002 00
043900 2442N 07350W 6963 02678 9457 +148 +136 252007 011 024 002 00
043930 2444N 07349W 6961 02676 9448 +153 +132 127006 011 025 001 00
044000 2445N 07349W 6971 02666 9443 +163 +127 118025 032 028 001 03
044030 2447N 07348W 6958 02693 9455 +163 +126 112041 045 036 002 03
044100 2447N 07348W 6958 02693 9467 +167 +124 099053 057 046 002 00
044130 2451N 07349W 6970 02717 9477 +182 +115 086071 075 051 004 00
044200 2453N 07350W 6967 02745 9507 +177 +120 085079 082 073 005 00
044230 2454N 07350W 6977 02761 9530 +185 +116 083084 088 084 004 00
044300 2456N 07351W 6955 02818 9545 +203 +076 074083 087 084 004 00
044330 2457N 07352W 6958 02833 9586 +184 +085 070080 085 076 005 00
044400 2459N 07352W 6978 02822 9631 +151 +119 069074 076 073 006 00
044430 2501N 07353W 6961 02863 9643 +157 +117 070071 073 068 004 00
044500 2502N 07353W 6950 02891 9659 +161 +095 061069 070 068 002 00
044530 2504N 07354W 6970 02879 9689 +143 +106 060064 068 067 004 00
044600 2505N 07354W 6966 02896 9693 +151 +100 064065 066 064 004 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

North-ish Quadrant:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 84 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 88 knots
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 84 knots

URNT15 KNHC 030455
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 57 20151003
044630 2507N 07355W 6964 02910 9710 +147 +102 070063 064 061 005 00
044700 2508N 07355W 6970 02914 9734 +133 +114 074062 063 061 005 00
044730 2510N 07356W 6961 02934 9762 +125 +125 075060 061 059 005 00
044800 2511N 07356W 6963 02940 9788 +125 +125 071059 060 058 007 00
044830 2513N 07357W 6969 02940 9797 +125 +125 066058 060 057 012 03
044900 2514N 07357W 6973 02944 9793 +123 +122 066061 064 058 015 00
044930 2516N 07358W 6964 02961 9820 +123 +123 075052 057 060 018 03
045000 2518N 07358W 6966 02974 9847 +118 +118 073059 061 057 018 03
045030 2519N 07359W 6964 02984 9831 +117 +116 074055 058 053 007 00
045100 2521N 07359W 6968 02985 9835 +114 +111 075054 057 051 004 01
045130 2523N 07400W 6970 02989 9849 +109 +107 071055 056 050 003 01
045200 2524N 07400W 6961 03007 9860 +103 +102 062053 054 046 004 01
045230 2526N 07401W 6966 03007 9868 +103 +102 064050 052 046 003 00
045300 2527N 07401W 6966 03012 9873 +104 +100 065049 050 045 002 00
045330 2529N 07402W 6966 03017 9876 +108 +098 064046 048 045 002 00
045400 2530N 07402W 6966 03020 9881 +106 +093 062045 045 043 001 00
045430 2532N 07403W 6963 03028 9882 +110 +089 061044 045 041 002 00
045500 2534N 07404W 6963 03033 9885 +110 +088 064043 043 040 002 03
045530 2535N 07404W 6966 03034 9890 +110 +086 065041 042 039 002 00
045600 2537N 07405W 6967 03035 9896 +110 +084 066040 041 039 002 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Open NE surprisingly unless that is a mistake.


URNT12 KNHC 030501
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 03/04:39:20Z
B. 24 deg 43 min N
073 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2629 m
D. 92 kt
E. 213 deg 11 nm
F. 313 deg 114 kt
G. 214 deg 13 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 12 C / 3050 m
J. 17 C / 3051 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 21
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 181 / 27 NM 02:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 125 / 17 KT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 352 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 5:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 4:39:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°43'N 73°50'W (24.7167N 73.8333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,629m (8,625ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSW (213°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 313° at 114kts (From the NW at ~ 131.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the S (181°) from the flight level center at 2:45:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 17kts (From the SE at 20mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (352°) from the flight level center

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 030505
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 58 20151003
045630 2538N 07405W 6969 03035 9901 +108 +082 065040 041 037 002 03
045700 2540N 07406W 6966 03040 9904 +108 +080 066040 042 036 001 03
045730 2542N 07406W 6960 03051 9912 +103 +083 070041 042 037 001 03
045800 2543N 07407W 6946 03069 9905 +103 +084 068042 043 037 001 00
045830 2545N 07408W 6956 03029 9881 +104 +089 069043 044 035 002 03
045900 2548N 07408W 6955 03024 9877 +101 +089 070044 045 036 000 00
045930 2550N 07409W 6959 03019 9881 +096 +093 071042 043 035 001 01
050000 2553N 07410W 6960 03019 9875 +105 +084 076043 044 035 002 00
050030 2555N 07411W 6957 03025 9879 +103 +085 079042 043 034 001 00
050100 2557N 07411W 6959 03025 9884 +102 +086 077041 042 034 001 00
050130 2600N 07412W 6959 03028 9890 +098 +087 077040 041 033 001 00
050200 2602N 07413W 6956 03034 9888 +103 +083 076040 041 032 001 03
050230 2605N 07414W 6961 03031 9882 +113 +070 070039 039 033 000 03
050300 2607N 07415W 6957 03039 9889 +109 +069 069039 040 033 001 00
050330 2609N 07415W 6957 03040 9895 +105 +072 068039 040 033 001 03
050400 2612N 07416W 6957 03042 9895 +105 +073 061036 039 031 001 00
050430 2614N 07417W 6962 03035 9895 +107 +070 061034 034 031 002 03
050500 2616N 07418W 6958 03047 9907 +103 +071 066034 034 031 001 00
050530 2619N 07419W 6957 03058 9919 +102 +073 061031 034 032 000 00
050600 2621N 07419W 6959 03062 9923 +105 +076 057032 033 032 000 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission over.

[txwatcher91]

Major hurricane force winds for a couple hours as the eye passes is one thing, but some of those island had over 24 hours worth of strong winds.

Not to mention being the eyewall for hours at a time with little relief.. Truly a sad situation for those affected.

[AutoPenalti]

Amazing, this storm looks so elongated.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just wondering. What are the chances of Joaquin not going NE but going to the right of that ULL to it's NE and ejecting to the east like a bullet to the MDR?

[ozonepete]

Just wondering. What are the chances of Joaquin not going NE but going to the right of that ULL to it's NE and ejecting to the east like a bullet to the MDR?

Almost nil. Just can't see how it would happen.

[ozonepete]

Wow, that Atlantic ULL is moving very quickly to the west above Joaquin. If it gets west pretty soon it will not only do the expected ejection of Joaquin northeastward but might allow Joaquin to reorganize and gain nice symmetry one more time and so maintain a pretty high intensity. That's probably what the Euro foresaw when it kept Joaquin at high intensity for a while after this moved northeastward. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully Bermuda won't get the worst of this. Regardless, this was a very, very odd storm with a lot of peculiarities that were hard to foresee. Even the Euro first forecast a U.S. landfall so all models were fooled...

[beoumont]

Wow, that Atlantic ULL is moving very quickly to the west above Joaquin. If it gets west pretty soon it will not only do the expected ejection of Joaquin northeastward but might allow Joaquin to reorganize and gain nice symmetry one more time and so maintain a pretty high intensity. That's probably what the Euro foresaw when it kept Joaquin at high intensity for a while after this moved northeastward. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully Bermuda won't get the worst of this. Regardless, this was a very, very odd storm with a lot of peculiarities that were hard to foresee. Even the Euro first forecast a U.S. landfall so all models were fooled...

Can anyone recall any/some cold low genesis hurricanes that reached cat. #4 intensity between Diana, 1984 and Joaquin? Diana below.