EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

4 at landfall?

More?

Less?

4 or 5 seems most likely at landfall.

[WeatherGuesser]

It'll be north of Mexico City, but by how much? Not close, but they may have some of the effects.

[Kingarabian]

It's growing larger in size too.

I hate to make the comparison...but how does the environment compare to Haiyan?

Haiyan was a freak that had many variables line up in its favor.

Maybe Rick 2009 is a better (unfortunately as well) comparison?

The rate of intensification is comparable to Linda which both happened in strong El nino year. Although I doubt satellite estimate will be as high as Linda since they are more conservative nowadays

Hopefully recon catches the storm in its peak.

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/QaoCJ9H.gif[img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/A5N77S8.gif[img]

Looks like a solid 7.5 to me. That -80C ring is solidified. Maybe the eye needs to warm a tad bit more.

[supercane4867]

It's difficult for geo satellites to catch the real temperature inside the eye due to its small size

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if CDO thickness is the same but this almost @ Rick's peak when one compares these IR images:



Patricia 2015:



Rick 2009:

[Cyclenall]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 out of this by late tonight.

Neither would I, looks like its on the verge of it now. Its one of the most impressive systems in the western hemisphere this year. Has tinges of Linda!!!

[supercane4867]

How about 7.8?

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.2C

Scene Type : EYE





The eye has likely warming to WMG status based on visible presentation

[supercane4867]

Not sure if CDO thickness is the same but this almost @ Rick's peak when one compares these IR images:

That IR imagery of Rick has a cold bias. This is Rick at peak intensity from GOES-12

[CrazyC83]

Unlike Rick or Linda, this is a serious land threat at near peak intensity too.

[supercane4867]

When is recon expected to reach Patricia tonight?

[NotoSans]

When is recon expected to reach Patricia tonight?

23/0600Z

[CrazyC83]

How high to go on the intermediate advisory?

I'd conservatively go 130 kt, with a pressure of 940mb, while we wait for Recon.

[supercane4867]

First since Haiyan

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 8.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Alyono]

probably 120 kts, maybe 125 kts. I'd wait for the recon to go crazy with the intensity

[supercane4867]

probably 120 kts, maybe 125 kts. I'd wait for the recon to go crazy with the intensity

While the NHC went with 130kt...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22
Location: 15.8°N 104.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[Ntxw]

I have little doubt we are going to get a cat 5 out of this

[Yellow Evan]

Clear cut T7.0, but if the eye warms, T7.5. This thing is intensifying at extreme levels.

[1900hurricane]

Not sure if CDO thickness is the same but this almost @ Rick's peak when one compares these IR images:

That IR imagery of Rick has a cold bias. This is Rick at peak intensity from GOES-12

Yeah, that first image of Rick was from a polar orbiter, which has a low temp bias for the CDO. Supercane's image is much more representative.

As for the Raw 8.0, I think ADT version 8.2.1 is putting too much emphasis on the CDO temp while looking past the still somewhat coolish eye (it kinda did the same thing with Pam earlier this year). SSD is running version 8.1.4, which is the same version run for Haiyan, and it is only at 7.4.

With that said, this is well on its way to one of the strongest tropical cyclones we've seen in the western hemisphere. The eye is still trending warmer, and with the sun going down over Patricia, the CDO will probably get even colder.