EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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#241 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:08 pm

If I had to guess, SAB will go T7.0 if 6 hr DT supports it.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#242 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:09 pm

Last visible before sunset

Image
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#243 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Last visible before sunset

Image


Oh wow, that looks terrifying. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#244 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:20 pm

Image
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#245 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:25 pm

Patricia reminds me a lot of Nuri from last year. It'll probably get about as intense too.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#246 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Image


Reminds me of this picture of Monica:

Image
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#247 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:34 pm

Is it possible there's wind lag and winds are only 130kts?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#248 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:36 pm

SAB fails

TXPZ21 KNES 230018
TCSENP

A. 20E (PATRICIA)

B. 22/2345Z

C. 15.8N

D. 105.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6 HR AVERAGE CALCULATED YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. SINGLE
22/2345Z CLASSIFICATION YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED AND
SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDING A DT OF 7.0 WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT.
WENT WITH THE 6 HR AVERAGE DT OF 6.5. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT AVERAGE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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#249 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:38 pm

Wow :uarrow:
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#250 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:41 pm

TAFB breaking constraints with T7.0

EP, 20, 201510222345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10490W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, i am breaking constraints as we are still playing ca
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#251 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:44 pm

140KT

EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU
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#252 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:47 pm

Cat 5
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#253 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:47 pm

HOLY CRAP!!!!! Wow Cat 5.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#254 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:49 pm

This CDO is as cold as one can get in the western hemisphere, just unbelievable

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#255 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:53 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:HOLY CRAP!!!!! Wow Cat 5.


Solid Cat 5 too imo. Hard to argue against.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#256 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:55 pm

00z SHIPS brings intensity up to 161kt in the next 12 hours

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 155 161 158 144 103 77 62 51 44 36 30 28
V (KT) LAND 140 155 161 158 144 69 40 31 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 140 148 145 134 120 61 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 7 18 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 240 199 160 177 184 235 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 171 170 173 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 68 63 59 55 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 72 73 87 98 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 131 115 112 121 83 93 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 0 -2 -2 -7 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 324 292 260 150 58 -154 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.2 22.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 105.7 105.5 103.9 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 59 67 68 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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#257 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:59 pm

Imagine if this actually makes landfall at this intensity. :eek:
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#258 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:59 pm

Omg.
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#259 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:01 pm

Linda is probably scared now...although sub-900 is unlikely due to the pressure gradient.
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#260 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:03 pm

With that BT, I'd put out a TCU with 140 kt winds. By the time of the advisory, it will likely be near 150 kt.
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