EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
supercane4867 wrote:Last visible before sunset
Oh wow, that looks terrifying.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- 1900hurricane
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Patricia reminds me a lot of Nuri from last year. It'll probably get about as intense too.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
Ntxw wrote:
Reminds me of this picture of Monica:

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
SAB fails
TXPZ21 KNES 230018
TCSENP
A. 20E (PATRICIA)
B. 22/2345Z
C. 15.8N
D. 105.0W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6 HR AVERAGE CALCULATED YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. SINGLE
22/2345Z CLASSIFICATION YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED AND
SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDING A DT OF 7.0 WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT.
WENT WITH THE 6 HR AVERAGE DT OF 6.5. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT AVERAGE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER
TXPZ21 KNES 230018
TCSENP
A. 20E (PATRICIA)
B. 22/2345Z
C. 15.8N
D. 105.0W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6 HR AVERAGE CALCULATED YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. SINGLE
22/2345Z CLASSIFICATION YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED AND
SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDING A DT OF 7.0 WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT.
WENT WITH THE 6 HR AVERAGE DT OF 6.5. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT AVERAGE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
TAFB breaking constraints with T7.0
EP, 20, 201510222345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10490W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, i am breaking constraints as we are still playing ca
EP, 20, 201510222345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10490W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, i am breaking constraints as we are still playing ca
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
140KT
EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU
EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU
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Cat 5
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
This CDO is as cold as one can get in the western hemisphere, just unbelievable


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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:HOLY CRAP!!!!! Wow Cat 5.
Solid Cat 5 too imo. Hard to argue against.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
00z SHIPS brings intensity up to 161kt in the next 12 hours
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 155 161 158 144 103 77 62 51 44 36 30 28
V (KT) LAND 140 155 161 158 144 69 40 31 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 140 148 145 134 120 61 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 7 18 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 240 199 160 177 184 235 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 171 170 173 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 68 63 59 55 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 72 73 87 98 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 131 115 112 121 83 93 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 0 -2 -2 -7 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 324 292 260 150 58 -154 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.2 22.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 105.7 105.5 103.9 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 59 67 68 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 155 161 158 144 103 77 62 51 44 36 30 28
V (KT) LAND 140 155 161 158 144 69 40 31 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 140 148 145 134 120 61 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 7 18 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 240 199 160 177 184 235 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 171 170 173 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 68 63 59 55 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 72 73 87 98 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 131 115 112 121 83 93 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 0 -2 -2 -7 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 324 292 260 150 58 -154 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.2 22.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 105.7 105.5 103.9 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 59 67 68 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Imagine if this actually makes landfall at this intensity. 

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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