EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Recon approaching

[Yellow Evan]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4m4 minutes ago

Obviously #Patricia is no #Haiyan but there is a family resemblance @iCyclone . Recon on the way...

[brunota2003]

I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.

Does turbulence always increase with strength? I'm not sure it's that linear but I don't know. At any rate I'd be surprised if recon couldn't complete their mission.

No, there are Cat 5 flights that are smooth and TS flights that are bumpy as heck. The problem here is I was reading (at least earlier) that there was a lot of lightning in the eye wall. Lightning is a sign of likely tremendous updrafts and downdrafts, which can lead to very severe turbulence. It is also a sign that graupel may be present, which also poses a threat to the safety of the aircraft. Remember, the Air Force flies WC-130s, which are just regular C-130s, outfitted with weather equipment. There is no extra strengthening done to the aircraft, and thus it is only capable of surviving what a regular C-130 can survive.

With that said, they are very tough birds, and it would take a lot to shake one apart or take it out of the sky...but it isn't impossible.

[Cunxi Huang]

omg this is so incredible. a well-defined CDG ring appeears on a hurricane in the EPAC.

[supercane4867]

CI# finally catching up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 920.9mb/143.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[galaxy401]

My prediction is 155 knots and pressure around 910.

[psyclone]

I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.

Does turbulence always increase with strength? I'm not sure it's that linear but I don't know. At any rate I'd be surprised if recon couldn't complete their mission.

No, there are Cat 5 flights that are smooth and TS flights that are bumpy as heck. The problem here is I was reading (at least earlier) that there was a lot of lightning in the eye wall. Lightning is a sign of likely tremendous updrafts and downdrafts, which can lead to very severe turbulence. It is also a sign that graupel may be present, which also poses a threat to the safety of the aircraft. Remember, the Air Force flies WC-130s, which are just regular C-130s, outfitted with weather equipment. There is no extra strengthening done to the aircraft, and thus it is only capable of surviving what a regular C-130 can survive.

With that said, they are very tough birds, and it would take a lot to shake one apart or take it out of the sky...but it isn't impossible.

Thanks for your post. This is exactly the clarity I was looking for. I recall pilots ( I believe on a special on TWC) mentioning that they have flown very bumpy tropical storms and comparatively smooth hurricanes so this makes sense. Nevertheless I'll never a tenth the stones of the recon folks...holy smokes..

[Hurricaneman]

This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

This is a prime example tonight of why I have great admiration for the pilots and the crew performing their jobs flying into these cyclones, especially one as super intense as Patricia. Extremely dangerous tonight for them. I have tremendous affection and appreciation for what they do in order to help in analyzing and collecting data from these storms.

[1900hurricane]

This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Super Typhoon Soudelor would be the one to beat out. It was analyzed with a 155 kt intensity back in August, but with no recon confirmation.

[brunota2003]

For those wanting more information on the aircraft and equipment onboard, you can look here:
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/plane.html

[Hurricaneman]

This could have the highest wind in a Hurricane/Typhoon of the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Super Typhoon Soudelor would be the one to beat out. It was analyzed with a 155 kt intensity back in August, but with no recon confirmation.

Waiting for recon to find out

[CrazyC83]

I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.

[Hurricaneman]

I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.

Say a prayer for those brave men and women who do the recon flights as this is probably one of their most dangerous missions

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

I hope those in that Recon plane have everything strapped down tight and are ready. It's going to be an extremely rough ride...perhaps one of the most turbulent they have ever experienced.

Say a prayer for those brave men and women who do the recon flights as this is probably one of their most dangerous missions

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Amen!!

[supercane4867]

Only thing I can say before recon penetrates the eyewall is that the CDO is still cooling and eye becoming even warmer

[Cyclenall]

My prediction for recon is 165 knots with a pressure of 900 mb.

This will indeed be a historic recon intercept, the most anticipated one in a very very long time. Nothing this year comes close to the next few hours.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say this is very close to, if not, T8.0.

This has to be the most impressive storm ever in the Western Hemisphere.

[Ntxw]

Only thing I can say before recon penetrates the eyewall is that the CDO is still cooling and eye becoming even warmer

As 1900hurricane alluded earlier, they are hitting her at her best. Invaluable data, not just for this system but how we compare other systems (particularly WPAC) as if they had recon. We don't see systems in the whem with this kind of presentation often, if ever.

[Yellow Evan]

Low winds and high pressures outside the core would suggest a very tight gradient, which means very high winds. Much like Haiyan.