EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical
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- northjaxpro
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NHC will probably go conservative a bit and place it at 170 kts, which is what I called for a few pages back. Still insane!! What an incredible tropical cyclone and she isn't done quite yet. Waiting on this last pass to see if Patricia can get Wilma's record.
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Please remember, just 12 hours ago, the surface winds and flight winds were the same. Given that nothing has changed (its still in bombing out phase), it doesn't necessarily surprise me that max flight level winds and SFMR winds are equal.
There's an interesting read from Jeff Masters a couple of years ago. Recon for Patricia can help conclude such theory perhaps
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2083
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
supercane4867 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Please remember, just 12 hours ago, the surface winds and flight winds were the same. Given that nothing has changed (its still in bombing out phase), it doesn't necessarily surprise me that max flight level winds and SFMR winds are equal.
There's an interesting read from Jeff Masters a couple of years ago. Recon for Patricia can help conclude such theory perhaps
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2083
That's why I'm leaning towards 180 knots and that the SFMR readings are legit.
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- Kingarabian
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I think it actually looks a little better on satellite right now.
The ring of black looks more circular and I think the eye might be smaller.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 165 177 175 156 132 92 67 52 42 37 29 24 24
V (KT) LAND 165 177 175 139 99 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 165 165 152 136 89 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 1 4 11 18 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 0 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 118 184 180 203 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 173 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 63 58 56 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 72 72 92 113 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 103 111 94 76 61 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -8 -8 -8 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 291 213 130 -6 -62 -361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.8 21.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.2 104.6 102.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 65 68 33 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -16. -27. -39. -49. -58. -68. -75. -80. -80.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -5. -11. -21. -21. -18. -15. -13. -14. -15. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 16. 23. 21. 16. 3. -9. -14. -15. -13. -12. -10. -8.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -12. -20. -24. -26. -27. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 12. 10. -9. -33. -73. -98.-113.-123.-128.-136.-141.-141.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Looks like we will get another pass?
Last pass coming up. They know this is a historic mission.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
what an EIR i just witnessed. from TS to 892 mb cat 5...wow, definitely in the upper echelon of worldwide CAT 5s
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
mrbagyo wrote:what an EIR i just witnessed. from TS to 892 mb cat 5...wow, definitely in the upper echelon of worldwide CAT 5s
886mb

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- northjaxpro
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All I can say is WOW!!!!! Look at this beast!! The only other tropical cyclone to completely awestruck me like this storm is Wilma!!


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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane
T7.5 from TAFB
EP, 20, 201510230545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1650N, 10540W, , 1, 155, 2, 906, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, EC, I, 1, 7575 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, Data T=7.5. FT=7.0 per rules. Based on the rapid int
EP, 20, 201510230545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1650N, 10540W, , 1, 155, 2, 906, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, EC, I, 1, 7575 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, Data T=7.5. FT=7.0 per rules. Based on the rapid int
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- Kingarabian
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- 1900hurricane
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As far as the random apparent warm-up seen on IR earlier, it does indeed seem to be a sat thing. Both ADTs have not appreciably changed with their CDO temp calculations.
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC recognizes the 182:
EP, 20, 201510230601, 50, AIRC, CI, , 1647N, 10542W, , 2, 182, 2, 890, 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , KNHC, NHC, , 700, 2134, 182, 128, 6, 221, 180, 126, 5, 890, 12, 27, 10, , , CI, , 7, , , 10, 3, MAX FL WIND 180 KT 126 / 5 NM 06:00:30Z CNTR DROPS
Just the only logical thing to do. Kudos to the NHC.
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- northjaxpro
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC recognizes the 182:
EP, 20, 201510230601, 50, AIRC, CI, , 1647N, 10542W, , 2, 182, 2, 890, 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , KNHC, NHC, , 700, 2134, 182, 128, 6, 221, 180, 126, 5, 890, 12, 27, 10, , , CI, , 7, , , 10, 3, MAX FL WIND 180 KT 126 / 5 NM 06:00:30Z CNTR DROPS
Yes, NHC did confirm, as I was hoping they would!!
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- brunota2003
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