Texas Fall-2015

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weatherdude1108
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#1481 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:27 am

I'm at work, and we were ordered into our interior training room in the building because of a tornado warning that was issued around 10:30 and expired at 11am.

The storm was to our east according to radar on my phone, but the box included this area of the county. I kept refreshing the NWS site. The box on their site disappeared at 10:45, but we were told to stay there until 11am since that was official expiration.

I'll be glad when today is over. I'll take El Nino rains without the severe any day.

Looking forward to trick or treating with my little one tomorrow!
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Re:

#1482 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:42 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:I'll be glad when today is over. I'll take El Nino rains without the severe any day.

Looking forward to trick or treating with my little one tomorrow!


We'll have to watch later this evening. The ULL will kick out and fire storms (already evident to the west and southwest of Austin). Despite all the rain that has already occurred there is a lot of upper air winds, with effective bulk shear. Those storms could be in the form of super cells vs this morning's training lines (isolated tornado cases).
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#1483 Postby Shoshana » Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:55 am

We're up to 3.5 .... Not as bad as most places.
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#1484 Postby ndale » Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:58 am

:uarrow:

Just checked our gauge, only 3 inches, seemed like should be more. Just heard thunder, more storms moving in.
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#1485 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:05 pm

This article about using nature to predict winter pretty much sums up this El Nino having so few analogs, especially for the Northern U.S.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/li ... /74460654/

(this takes place in Kentucky)
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#1486 Postby ndale » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:10 pm

Excerpts from EWX update: ANOTHER HISTORICAL OCTOBER FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND AT LEAST 16 INCHES 5 MILES SW OF KYLE...OBSERVED
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH
WIMBERLEY AND KYLE TO SOUTHEAST SIDES OF AUSTIN.......ISOLATED RAIN
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
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Re:

#1487 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:13 pm

TheProfessor wrote:This article about using nature to predict winter pretty much sums up this El Nino having so few analogs, especially for the Northern U.S.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/li ... /74460654/

(this takes place in Kentucky)


That's pretty neat stuff. I'm always interested in the natural clues, squirrels etc! I just wish there is some more consensus data on it. Perhaps someone would do a test theory over many years I bet there are good correlations.

There isn't a lot of analogs for this El Nino, but really there isn't many analogs that match any El Nino. Back in 1997 who would've thought it would turn out to be a torch for the whole country? There weren't many analogs for the strongest Nino on record then either. In 2009 the consensus for December was warm for the time it was a moderate/strong borderline Nino but turned out very cold, there weren't analogs that fit that either. But it is an El Nino and in a broad sense they do behave based on odds similarly. The odds are stacked to their favorability and smaller scale things (such as the NPAC, NAO etc) can tug and pull a little in short time periods.

A weaker ENSO event (such as last year) can stack less odds thus other things become a stronger player.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1488 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:18 pm

8 inches now at my house. There are ongoing evacuations on the southeast side of the city along Onion Creek. A flood gate has been opened letting water out of Lake Austin and pushing it through the city downstream. The Colorado River downstream from Austin will have a significant rise later on. Barton Creek is still rising as well as Shoal Creek through Downtown. Williamson Creek is the closest to me. The houses in my neighborhood along Williamson Creek have the creek in their back yards.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1489 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:22 pm

JDawg512 wrote:8 inches now at my house. There are ongoing evacuations on the southeast side of the city along Onion Creek. A flood gate has been opened letting water out of Lake Austin and pushing it through the city downstream. The Colorado River downstream from Austin will have a significant rise later on. Barton Creek is still rising as well as Shoal Creek through Downtown. Williamson Creek is the closest to me. The houses in my neighborhood along Williamson Creek have the creek in their back yards.


Stay safe. Looking at radar there could be more rain on the way later today.

Based on reports around the Austin area is pretty much what you are saying. Anyone or any road near a creek is in jeopardy. And based on KXAN twitter feed looks like Onion creek eclipsed the big flood of 1998 with over 25'
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#1490 Postby WeatherNewbie » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:32 pm

Buddy of mine who lives in Dripping Springs just texted me that Salt Lick is under water.
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#1491 Postby TexasSam » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:44 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
COMAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1044 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COMAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING MAJOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COMAL AND GUADALUPE RIVERS IN NEW BRAUNFELS. RIVER FLOODING IS
OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD EVACUATE
IMMEDIATELY. A RED CROSS SHELTER IS OPEN AT CANYON HIGH SCHOOL FOR
EVACUEES.
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#1492 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:57 pm

Check out the EWX weather discussion, issued at 11:30am.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER HISTORICAL OCTOBER FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND AT LEAST 16 INCHES 5 MILES SW OF KYLE...OBSERVED
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH
WIMBERLEY AND KYLE TO SOUTHEAST SIDES OF AUSTIN.
BACKBUILDING
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY AND
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CELL TRAINING CONTINUES TO OCCUR. THIS...COUPLED WITH A 50 KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP THAN IT WAS A FEW HOURS
AGO WHEN UP TO 6 INCH/HR RAIN RATES WERE OBSERVED...THIS TRAINING
WILL CONTINUE A SIGNIFICANT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
PRIMARILY ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS TO ELGIN TO
LEXINGTON. FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
FAR NW BEXAR...MOST OF COMAL AND HAYS...AND THE ONION CREEK BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TRAVIS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO BASTROP...LEE...EASTERN
TRAVIS...AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS CELLS CONTINUE MOVING INTO THESE AREAS. ISOLATED RAIN
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ALSO
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 300 M^2/S^2.
ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT IS WINDING DOWN TO SOME EXTEND DUE TO A RELATIVE LACK
OF DISCRETE CELLS...ANY NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE AND INTO THE TRAINING LINE MAY HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT BY FAR FOR THIS
EVENT IS SIGNIFINCANT FLASH AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING.


THE AFTERNOON AFD WILL COVER MORE ABOUT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE TONIGHT...BUT HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD CELLS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
IT WILL SEEM LIKE A LULL COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL.
HI-
RES AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GENERALLY NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY
WELL
...BUT THE CURRENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO INDICATE THIS AS
WELL...THOUGH THINKING IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THEY
SUGGEST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CELLS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AFTER 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 1-3Z.
THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL THINKING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE TOO WORKED OVER FROM AN INSTABILITY
STANDPOINT TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FOCUSED AREA AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
TONIGHT...FEEL THE HRRR IS PROBABLY TOO AGRESSIVE ON THAT AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME STORM EVENT
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18-20 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

:eek:
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#1493 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:09 pm

Folks another heavy rain event is looming middle to later next week
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1494 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:14 pm

People are on the rooftops of their homes in some of those neighborhoods in Southeast Austin. Latest is that Onion Creek could rise just one foot below the all time record crest which occurred almost exactly 2 years ago with the 2013 Halloween Flood. It's possible it could tie it.

Barton Creek could also have the highest recorded crest too.
Last edited by JDawg512 on Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1495 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:16 pm

That lone cell producing a lot of rotation and occasionally a tornado continues its long trek, from near Austin to now near College Station. Perfect setup for a long tracking storm with this strong southerly inflow.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1496 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:17 pm

JDawg512 wrote:People are on the rooftops of their homes in some of those neighborhoods in Southeast Austin. Latest is that Onion Creek could rise just one foot below the all time record crest which occurred almost exactly 2 years ago with the 2013 Halloween Flood. It's possible it could tie it.


Onion creek is already almost a foot over past that crest. The San Marcos river will crest around memorial day levels they are expecting
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1497 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:People are on the rooftops of their homes in some of those neighborhoods in Southeast Austin. Latest is that Onion Creek could rise just one foot below the all time record crest which occurred almost exactly 2 years ago with the 2013 Halloween Flood. It's possible it could tie it.


Onion creek is already almost a foot over past that crest



Yea very true. The concern is what will be coming up later this afternoon. By the way kxan is doing commercial free coverage for those interested in watching their live stream. Just type kxan.com
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#1498 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:20 pm

All of you folks in Austin and surrounding areas stay safe, you can fill us in on the details later.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1499 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:21 pm

Bryan/College Station heads up

TORNADO WARNING
TXC041-051-301845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0032.151030T1808Z-151030T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 107 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CALDWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CALDWELL AND KYLE FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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#1500 Postby gboudx » Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:22 pm

From jeff:

Catastrophic lift threatening flash flood event ongoing over central TX.

16 inches of rainfall recorded at Kyle, TX and 13.98 at Canyon Lake. 13.40 inches recorded by a LCRA gage on the SE side of Austin.

Rainfall rate was 6.98 inches in 1-hr on the SE side of Austin.

Disastrous flash flooding is tearing through the Blanco, Comal, San Marcos, and Guadalupe Rivers.

Onion Creek at Driftwood, TX has established a new record level surpassing the previous record by over a foot and still rising. Catastrophic flooding is imminent in the Onion Creek watershed on the south side of Austin…or the same areas devastated by the Halloween Flood of 2013. See the last hydrograph below showing Onion Creek at Hwy 183 rising from 13ft to 29 ft in 45 minutes.

Many persons are trapped on several freeways underwater and on their rooftops along the Blanco and San Marcos Rivers with some homes being torn from their foundations near Wimberley and San Marcos.

This is a life threatening flash flood event with all emergency capabilities in central TX overwhelmed.

LCRA has begun flood gate operations at Tom Miller Dam due to large inflows into the Colorado River below Lake Travis. Tremendous inflow from Onion and Barton Creeks into the river below Austin will generate a large flood wave on the river this evening which will move downstream toward Bastrop and Smithville Saturday.
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