Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

This is interesting and I hadn't really noticed it before:

@wxmanvic Going back to 1898, the latest in the fall for #DFW to reach 50F was 11/3 in 2004. Record now broken. Avg. date is 10/7. This wknd? #txwx

Urban sprawl and heat island have to be having an effect here. Many of the surrounding areas have dipped into the 40's already. Absent heat island affect, I bet DFW would've hit 50 by now as well. Denton, Arlington, Stephenville, Waxahachie, Rockwall have all dipped into the 40's. Recording stations in the heat island haven't. My point is that it hasn't been necessarily too warm to dip to 50, but artificial means have played a role. I guess they can only deal in records based on current situations, but it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. 1898 Dallas is not 2015 Dallas.

I agree this does happen for most nights not involving cold air advection. Another role is dewpoints and higher moisture content has kept lows higher than normal for months. The reason it's been higher than the past several years.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Despite the records of warmth across the US to bring in November, snow across the NHEM have exploded into 2nd highest extent to date. Second to 1976.

*Fistpump*

What are the mechanics behind this bringing more cold air down? Does it have to do with another PV in the siberia region which pumps higher heights into the arctic region? More likely to have SSW's?

Easy terms, big snow strengthens semi perm Siberian high pressure early on. Heat flux from it attacks the polar vortex 50mb and up and lowers the AO. SSW are more likely to occur

Of course whether cause or effect, more snow also means much further south than normal. Thats good for cold air modification or lackthereof

Thank you sir!

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Heavy rainfall and flash flood event increasing likely tonight over the TX Hill Country.

Models keying in on incoming short wave over MX and rapidly advancing moisture into SC TX this afternoon with likely rapid onset of training bands of heavy rainfall from SW TX NE into the areas west of I-35 overnight. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches will be possible and this on top of the 6 inches last week in this area will likely result in rapid onset flash flooding over the Hill Country. Some concern this could affect the I-35 corridor again.

Frontal boundary will slowly slide into SE TX Thursday with ongoing thunderstorms along the front. Expect heavy rainfall to remain possible especially across the northern counties of SE TX into Thursday night as moisture increases to near 2.0 inch of PW…very high for this time of year.

Front stalls over the region Friday-Saturday, but best upper level support lifts off to the NE. Not sure how the rainfall will actually transpire on Friday and Saturday, but with a stalled boundary acting as a focus along with copious moisture levels, will have to keep an eye on any develop, potential cell training, and rainfall rates. Nothing is really pointing toward flooding rainfall at the moment, but then nothing suggested it last weekend either. Overall setup does favor heavy rainfall especially with any undefined disturbances which may move across in the sub-tropical flow aloft.

Secondary stronger front will finally clear the coast late Sunday evening the threat for rainfall and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.

Widespread rainfall amounts Thursday-Sunday will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-5 inches. Given saturated grounds and already high rivers rainfall of the magnitude may cause additional flooding.

A low end severe threat may evolve over our NW counties late Thursday afternoon with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. With the main dynamics shifting NE away from SE TX on Friday, not expecting much severe weather although a strong storm will be possible.

[Brent]

Despite the records of warmth across the US to bring in November, snow across the NHEM have exploded into 2nd highest extent to date. Second to 1976.

Ooh 1976... a good analog.

[Ntxw]

1972 and 2009 is also there. This is strictly how widespread snow cover is nothing else considered

Byproduct of 2 things, wetter than normal further north and storms traveling further south than normal imo

[Ralph's Weather]

Signs overall are still pointing at a cool, wet and wintery winter.

I am watching to see if NE Texas can sneak in a few upper 30s for Monday morning. The last few runs of the GFS show temps in the 40-44 range which could easily mean favored cool spots could see 30s. This cold front does not seem to dig quite far enough for any frost, but it could be close in isolated spots.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: 1972 and 2009 is also there. This is strictly how widespread snow cover is nothing else considered

Byproduct of 2 things, wetter than normal further north and storms traveling further south than normal imo

Any place to see archive 500MB daily charts from 1972? 2009 does look similar already with bowling balls coming down through CAlifornia.

Also, warm Nov for '09.

[Texas Snowman]

Signs overall are still pointing at a cool, wet and wintery winter.

Since it never snows on my birthday (today, #50), that's about the best birthday present I could ask for: an expectation for a chilly, wet and memorable winter here in North Texas.

That and a big snow for Portastorm!

Pulling for you Porta!!!

[Texas Snowman]

FXUS64 KFWD 042136
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOW ONGOING ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT WEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU THROUGH NIGHTFALL. AS A 30-40KT LLJ ENSUES TONIGHT...THE
NORTHWARD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCELERATE...STEADILY
EXPANDING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 LATE THIS
EVENING... EVENTUALLY BLANKETING ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT INTENSIFIES...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. PW VALUES WILL SOAR ABOVE 2 INCHES...REACHING NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...THE
RICHEST MOISTURE WILL ORIENT ITSELF ALONG AN AXIS FROM LAMPASAS/
KILLEEN...TO HILLSBORO/CORSICANA...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS/PARIS...WHERE
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO SHERMAN/DENISON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR TRAINING ECHOES...ALLOWING
SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WITH SOILS STILL
SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
RE-AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE MEAN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE
BOUNDARY...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO REACH OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES EAST THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
BECAUSE THE ELEVATED MORNING ACTIVITY MAY BLEND SEAMLESSLY INTO THE
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN-COOLED...LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
UPDRAFTS THAT INGEST SURFACE PARCELS. REGARDLESS...THE BUOYANCY OF
THE RICH PREFRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE
MECHANICAL FORCING WILL AID IN LIFTING THESE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
IF THERE IS AN INTERLUDE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE SURFACE TO WARM
INTO THE 80S...MLCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 1000J/KG...ENHANCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. COMPETING UPDRAFTS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY VEERED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADIC
THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF RICHEST MOISTURE.

THIS AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...TAKING WITH IT THE SEVERE AND
FLOODING THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...
POSTFRONTAL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER. BUT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RECOVERY ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING....WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING OUT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

25

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting Public Information Statement about Bergstrom Int. Airport

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 12:00 PM CST on November 4, 2015

... Public information statement...

A historic flood event during the morning of Friday October 30,
2015 caused widespread power and communication outages at the
Austin Bergstrom international Airport (kaus) including to the
automated surface observing system (asos). Rainfall values
obtained from a variety of sources during the event yielded a
preliminary daily total of 14.99 inches. Power and communications
to the ASOS were restored on November 3, 2015. Examination of
rainfall data retrieved from the ASOS array provided detailed and
aggregate precipitation values that have led to a revised and more
accurate daily rainfall total. The new daily total for October
30, 2015 at kaus is now 13.00 inches.

The new daily and record value of 13.00 inches will be reflected
in the record event report (rer), monthly climate report (clm) and
the preliminary local climate data (cf6) report. These products
may be viewed on our website at http://www.Weather.Gov/Austin.

If you have any questions regarding this revised daily rainfall
amount please contact:

Joe arellano
meteorologist-in-charge
email: Joe.Arellano@noaa.Gov

Larry Hopper
meteorologist/climate Focal Point
email: Larry.Hopper@noaa.Gov

NWS office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, Texas 78130

Telephone: 830.629.0130

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Signs overall are still pointing at a cool, wet and wintery winter.

Since it never snows on my birthday (today, #50), that's about the best birthday present I could ask for: an expectation for a chilly, wet and memorable winter here in North Texas.

That and a big snow for Portastorm!

Pulling for you Porta!!!

Happy bday!!!

[Brent]

:uarrow: 1972 and 2009 is also there. This is strictly how widespread snow cover is nothing else considered

Byproduct of 2 things, wetter than normal further north and storms traveling further south than normal imo

Any place to see archive 500MB daily charts from 1972? 2009 does look similar already with bowling balls coming down through CAlifornia.

Also, warm Nov for '09.

Someone else was just comparing the current pattern to 09/10 too...

and Happy Birthday Texas Snowman!

[Ralph's Weather]

Someone else was just comparing the current pattern to 09/10 too...

and Happy Birthday Texas Snowman!

Things really do seem to match up with 09/10 but with more extreme warmth in the Pacific.

[Brent]

Flagstaff just had record snowfall apparently...(that last part could be media noise), but it definitely did snow several inches

[Ntxw]

Happy Birthday Texas Snowman! One day it will snow on your birthday, it can be done!

:uarrow: 1972 and 2009 is also there. This is strictly how widespread snow cover is nothing else considered

Byproduct of 2 things, wetter than normal further north and storms traveling further south than normal imo

Any place to see archive 500MB daily charts from 1972? 2009 does look similar already with bowling balls coming down through CAlifornia.

Also, warm Nov for '09.

It's hard finding stuff pre satellite (1979). At least the ready made stuff, you'll have to really dig with NOAA's NARR reanalysis. Can be daunting but if you have free time it can be interesting to play around with.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl



To the posts about 2009, it's a possible analog. It's just a dangerous one to use because it will get your hopes up too high. Also that was the most severe -AO winter on record pretty much, so having an AO like that is very hard to come by once a century type thing. We just need the STJ to remain strong through winter, the cold will come. It's all about odds and threading the needle, the more you try the better your chances.

[Brent]

Happy Birthday Texas Snowman! One day it will snow on your birthday, it can be done!

:uarrow: 1972 and 2009 is also there. This is strictly how widespread snow cover is nothing else considered

Byproduct of 2 things, wetter than normal further north and storms traveling further south than normal imo

Any place to see archive 500MB daily charts from 1972? 2009 does look similar already with bowling balls coming down through CAlifornia.

Also, warm Nov for '09.

It's hard finding stuff pre satellite (1979). At least the ready made stuff, you'll have to really dig with NOAA's NARR reanalysis. Can be daunting but if you have free time it can be interesting to play around with.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl



To the posts about 2009, it's a possible analog. It's just a dangerous one to use because it will get your hopes up too high. Also that was the most severe -AO winter on record pretty much, so having an AO like that is very hard to come by once a century type thing. We just need the STJ to remain strong through winter, the cold will come. It's all about odds and threading the needle, the more you try the better your chances.

Yeah I know... ever since these big analogs were going around I've been trying to maintain expectations. I mean this is the south and snow is never guaranteed here... I certainly would love the big snow totals to happen(as I know we all would) but there has to be some level of realism until the setups come on the models...

Basically I don't want to spend the winter all disappointed if it doesn't snow.

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that the 01Z HRRR is starting to paint some big totals over the SE Balconies region a few hours either side of sunrise once again. Definitely something to watch for as the night progresses.

[Brent]

Worth noting that the 01Z HRRR is starting to paint some big totals over the SE Balconies region a few hours either side of sunrise once again. Definitely something to watch for as the night progresses.

What is the scale on this map?

[1900hurricane]

It's at the top, and in hundredths of an inch. It has a large 4-8" swath over basically the same locations hardest hit last week.

[Texas Snowman]

Happy Birthday Texas Snowman! One day it will snow on your birthday, it can be done!

Thanks Ntxw, TeamPlayersBlue and Brent for the birthday wishes.

Maybe one day I'll see some snow on Nov. 4th. I've seen it falling in late October (falling, not sticking at a local high school football game, back in 1993 if I remember correctly). And I've seen a light dusting on Nov. 8th if I remember correctly. But never on my birthday, it's kind of like the ultimate White Christmas kind of snow I guess.

Back to the current situation, bring on the rain as long as there is no flooding or severe weather.

And let the snow and cold come soon with a winter to remember!