Texas Fall-2015

[ndale]

Thanks appreciate the answer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Two runs in a row the GFS shows a big arctic plunge in la la land. Larry Cosgrove thinks it indicates certain changes in the atmosphere coming.

Remember, this is very far away and is in GFS la la land but it sure is fun to look at it!

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Highly active southern stream weather pattern will result in the next two storms systems affecting the state this week and yet again next weekend (making that 4 weekends in a row).

Dry and cool air mass in place tonight will result in overnight lows falling into the 40’s and 50’s over the region, but southerly flow returns on Monday and the moisture comes roaring back by Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong dynamic upper air system will move into the plains on Tuesday/Wednesday with a strong cold front moving across TX on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are starting to looks a little more favorable over SE TX for a line of strong thunderstorms with this front Wednesday evening. Main question is where capping inversions noted on forecast soundings can be overcome either by surface lift or cooling aloft. Jet energy is certainly strong…but mainly just north of SE TX and if the cap is broken severe thunderstorms will be possibly especially north of I-10. Forecast moisture levels surge to 1.7-2.0 inches again which will result in a heavy rainfall threat…however system looks very progressive and should clear the area by Thursday morning.

Two day break on Thursday and Friday with cool high pressure in place resulting in weather similar to today…but it does not last.

Next storm system rapidly drops into the SW US and begins to eject into TX on Saturday. Strong sub-tropical jet core develops over TX early Saturday while moisture begins to return to the area. Expect showers to develop on Saturday and then as moisture deepens more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and into Monday. This system is looking fairly wet at this point and given the saturated grounds in place could result in a flood threat. Certainly plenty of time to watch and fine tune the impacts for next weekend and the mid week system for that matter.

Highly active pattern looks to remain in place through the end of the month with storm systems about every 3-5 days.

[Brent]

Why do people want cold and snow? It's makes no sense to me for people to hope for discomfort and misery.

Because we live in a place where snow isn't guaranteed and usually it's only around a day at most before it goes away..

Why do people like the hot and dry weather? It does nothing for me...

[amawea]

And... snow is pretty and adds nitrogen to the ground. It helps to provide moisture by slowly leaching water into the ground, and protects some plants from the brutal cold that sometimes follows snowfall. Oh yeah, and it's pretty...

[Brent]

Where did these sprinkles come from? More poorly forecast precip. Hope this is a sign of winter...

[Ntxw]

Where did these sprinkles come from? More poorly forecast precip. Hope this is a sign of winter...

130-140kt subtropical jet roaring. Not surprised high moisture is sprinkling. Some big, intense storms will roll through the next 2 weeks

I'm thoroughly convinced it will be year of the deep cyclogensis like 09-10 was

[Brent]

Where did these sprinkles come from? More poorly forecast precip. Hope this is a sign of winter...

130-140kt subtropical jet roaring. Not surprised high moisture is sprinkling. Some big, intense storms will roll through the next 2 weeks

I'm thoroughly convinced it will be year of the deep cyclogensis like 09-10 was

Bring it on...

[texas1836]

Why do people want cold and snow? It's makes no sense to me for people to hope for discomfort and misery.

Because we live in a place where snow isn't guaranteed and usually it's only around a day at most before it goes away..

Why do people like the hot and dry weather? It does nothing for me...

Beautifully said Brent!!!! I couldn't agree with you more.

[Ntxw]

The El Nino just tied 1997 max reading of 2.8C except this one did it a few weeks sooner. It now owns (with 1997) the highest weekly reading of any ENSO event, at any time of year point blank. Crazy thing is next week may go higher. Nino 4 is a record.

[WeatherNewbie]

Why do people want cold and snow? It's makes no sense to me for people to hope for discomfort and misery.

Why do you assume that everyone finds snow uncomfortable and miserable?

[Ntxw]

Put a few inches of snow in Houston and even wxman57 morphs into a snow weenie he doesn't like cold but he does like snow!

A small, but important, piece of info also came out of the Nino update. Nino 1-2 went down again to 2.1C. Not the neutral levels as 2009 but maybe a bigger version on steroids? Again I am not noting 2009 as a true analog but dispersion of SST across enso. This is far far far bigger. Nino 4 records I believe is held by 09 that was broken out west.

[Ntxw]

Hudson Bay blocking showing up in guidance. Look for a major southern plains winterish storm around the 15-20th.

[Brent]

GFS is very active next week(even more active than it has been of late)... an initial wave on Sunday/Monday, then a front Tuesday/Wednesday, then a bigger front Thursday/Friday... (and behind that one the 540 line digs down into Texas)

[Ralph's Weather]

Hudson Bay blocking showing up in guidance. Look for a major southern plains winterish storm around the 15-20th.

The GFS has been on this for a while and it seems to fit with climatology to get the first freeze around mid month. We can hope for wintery weather, but it is still very early in the season. Still not loving what I see in the teles, those will likely not move into our favor consistently until after Christmas. All that being said we all know when you are dealing with strong enough systems they can really bring down some cold air vertically.

[Brent]

Hudson Bay blocking showing up in guidance. Look for a major southern plains winterish storm around the 15-20th.

The GFS has been on this for a while and it seems to fit with climatology to get the first freeze around mid month. We can hope for wintery weather, but it is still very early in the season. Still not loving what I see in the teles, those will likely not move into our favor consistently until after Christmas. All that being said we all know when you are dealing with strong enough systems they can really bring down some cold air vertically.

All the talk about 09-10... the first freeze at DFW wasn't til December 3rd and of course, the rest of winter is history.. so obviously November cold doesn't matter a whole lot(and then last November was cold and December and January were awful for snow lovers...)

[Ntxw]

and that first freeze came with snow, the first of the season that came from a southern stream system deepening as it crawled out of El Paso. A few days later Houston was hit by another deepening low that barely missed DFW

[Ralph's Weather]

I think Nuri last year got us spoiled for early winter weather. That was a very rare set up. We may have a while yet to wait for our first snow, but it will likely come in bunches when it does come.
As for current weather besides a stormy Veteran's Day this is looking to be a very nice fall week. Enjoy it as the storms are about to start coming hard and fast starting next week.

[Brent]

I think Nuri last year got us spoiled for early winter weather. That was a very rare set up. We may have a while yet to wait for our first snow, but it will likely come in bunches when it does come.
As for current weather besides a stormy Veteran's Day this is looking to be a very nice fall week. Enjoy it as the storms are about to start coming hard and fast starting next week.

Yeah, I'm not really concerned over the lack of snow chances coming up... last year was clearly an anomaly. I really expect as long as this pattern is around during the colder months, we'll get some setups even solely from the strength of systems bringing cold air. This November doesn't even look like it'll be warm... average at worst and maybe slightly below normal with all these cloudy days, so I'd gladly take a better Dec/Jan instead of some extremely cold/snowy November that's just gonna flip in December.

[Ntxw]

Yeah Nuri likely derailed last December dumping all the cold too early and messing with the AO. We have been spared the mildness the rest of the country east of the Rockies. 60s and mostly cloudy sure has more nip than 60s and bright sunshine.