2015 Global model runs discussion

#1861 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:27 am

This is what happens when a substandard model is allowed to be developed

Darvince · #1862 Postby **Darvince** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:31 am

Oh MAN I was about to post that, logged in, and then checked this thread and realized it had already been posted. But GFS wat are u smoking??? Literally Wilma.

AutoPenalti · #1863 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:12 am

GFS = Get Florida Scared.

Website · #1864 Postby **Brent** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:19 am

It's quite rapidly going extratropical in the Eastern Gulf fwiw

Big front clears the Panhandle

#1865 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:48 am

System gone on GFS 06z...

#1866 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:37 am

It's still there in the 06Z GFS as a low pressure area on the trailing end of a strong cold front in the southern Bay of Campeche.

#1867 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:58 am

Yep the 06Z GFS has the SW Caribbean system it just recurves it over Central America and not over the Western Caribbean like the 00Z.

In fact the GFS shows an organized low in about a week over the SW Caribbean:

#1868 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:39 am

12Z MU at it again

#1869 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:39 am

Yep and looks to move it into Central America:

#1870 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:49 am

The 12Z GEM has the storm too but it is in the EPAC. Could be a case where the GFS initially shows SW Caribbean but the storm ends up forming in the EPAC instead.

#1871 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:50 am

Alyono wrote:This is what happens when a substandard model is allowed to be developed

It's really sad how bad the GFS is. I am just speechless. It is just inexcusable really.

#1872 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:40 pm

18Z MU at it again as Alyono would say

#1873 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:49 pm

The GFS has support from another model for the first time even though it is not a good model. The ECMWF shows a low forming too at 96 hours but it moves it into Central America so it doesn't develop.

GFS

NAVGEM

blp · #1874 Postby **blp** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:12 pm

Euro below with vorticity at 144hrs.

Hurricaneman · #1875 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:32 pm

The fact that the Euro is starting to show the Caribbean system too means it may be something to watch for possibly mid week next week for the beginning of cyclogenesis and possibly a named system as any system down in the western Caribbean would be drawn to Florida with that pattern whether it crosses into the BOC or stays in the western Caribbean and up the Yucatan Channel

another thing to watch for is does it get sheared out or does it move along with the shear relaxing it in the process

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1876 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:43 pm

I remember dealing with Tropical Storm Keith in 1988 in the Tampa Bay area during Thanksgiving week, so it can still happen this time of year.

Hurricaneman · #1877 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 12:06 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:I remember dealing with Tropical Storm Keith in 1988 in the Tampa Bay area during Thanksgiving week, so it can still happen this time of year.

Its not often that Tampa has hurricane force gusts except in thunderstorms but a hurricane would be worst case scenario

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1878 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 11:59 am

12z Canadian has a Hurricane moving NNE right over central Cuba

12z Gfs has a TS/Hurricane making landfall in central america

Lets see if todays Euro shows anything

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#1879 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 12:38 pm

add the 12Z NAVGEM which has a strengthening cyclone moving NW towards the NW Caribbean:

High-res GFS:

#1880 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 14, 2015 12:52 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles are markedly more bullish:

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