Texas Fall-2015

[DougNTexas]

How come we do not get those plus mile wide tornado's here in East Texas?

[EF-5bigj]

Hopefully it won't be as bad on Tuesday but I don't know now.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley:

The supercell thunderstorms in west Texas are finally forming a solid line which will only slowly - but perhaps not completely- diminish the tornado threat for the rest of the night. But this means we will transition to a potential damaging wind event as they move off the caprock and sweep into north Texas well after midnight tonight. Of course, if isolated storms manage to form ahead of the line, they will be monitored for signs of strong rotation.

Estimated Time of Arrival in the Metroplex is after 3 AM, and most of the lingering rain should clear the eastern sections of the Metroplex by 8 AM.

[Brent]

Not to take away from the severe weather threat but I've been noticing this today and it continues on the 0z:

GFS has really lost the great pattern next week... the weekend does have a quick shot with a frost possible around DFW(maybe a freeze in colder spots) but otherwise pretty average looking...

It is unsettled starting Black Friday but temps are quite mild.

The weekend is cold though... 35 Sunday morning at DFW, highs around 50 Saturday-Monday.

[TarrantWx]

I'm noticing some notches developing in the line to the east of Abilene. Definitely something to keep an eye on as that's typically where tornadoes form in squall lines. Interested to see the sounding from the balloon FWD sent up at midnight. HRRR also hints at some isolated storms ahead of line which would have significant helicity to work with. Stay alert tonight DFW.

Edit: SVR warning issued for Stephens county

[SouthernMet]

My thoughts exactly... HRRR has been showing discrete cells form ahead of the main squall all day and still does, with CAPE rapidly increasing over I-35 corridor and maybe a row of counties west, between 2-4am. If this plays out, obviously the highest risk of tornadoes will be with the individual cells.

[EF-5bigj]

I hope everyone stays safe and alert given these violent tornadoes have been nocturnal and fast moving.

[TarrantWx]

6z FWD sounding features 1900 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and nearly 1300 J/kg of MLCAPE, both with negligible CINH. SFC-1km helicity of 346, and SFC-3km of 458. Supercell composite of 17.1 and effective layer STP of 3.3. Those are impressive numbers for any time of year, let alone the middle of November at midnight...

[TarrantWx]

Tornado warning for Tarrant county

045
WFUS54 KFWD 170922
TORFWD
TXC439-171000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0115.151117T0922Z-151117T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CST

* AT 322 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FORT WORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WATAUGA AROUND 330 AM CST.
BEDFORD...HURST AND NORTH RICHLAND HILLS AROUND 335 AM CST.
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GRAND PRAIRIE...EULESS AND COLLEYVILLE
AROUND 340 AM CST.
IRVING AND GRAPEVINE AROUND 350 AM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WESTLAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[TarrantWx]

New warning for Southeastern Denton and Southwestern Collin county. Storm developing ahead of the line near Mesquite certainly bears watching.


319
WFUS54 KFWD 170946
TORFWD
TXC085-121-171015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0116.151117T0946Z-151117T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 346 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LEWISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARROLLTON...LAKE LEWISVILLE AND HEBRON AROUND 355 AM CST.
THE COLONY AND HACKBERRY AROUND 400 AM CST.
LITTLE ELM AROUND 405 AM CST.
PLANO AND FRISCO AROUND 410 AM CST.
MCKINNEY...PROSPER AND CELINA AROUND 415 AM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LAKEWOOD VILLAGE AND OAK POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[Texas Snowman]

Share| Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printShare on gmail

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TXC041-185-171100-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151117T1100Z/
BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-
447 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL BRAZOS AND NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 446 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL BRAZOS AND NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CARLOS...ROANS PRAIRIE AND IOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 9627 3077 9626 3083 9606 3055 9591
3046 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 1046Z 218DEG 36KT 3063 9610

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

[weatherdude1108]

Line of storms right on our doorstep. I took dog out early so she could do her stuff. The barometer reading on my weather station reads 29.22 inches/Hg. I rarely ever see it that low!

I will report what happens later.

Edit: Big gust of wind just moved thru. Walked outside and mugginess turned to cool in an instant! Starting to rain now.

[KatDaddy]

The squall line and frontal system continue to push E through Central and NTX early this morning. So far only a few damaging wind reports overnight in NTX. Across SE TX dry line storms have developed with one cell recently being tornado warned near College Station. The isolated cells ahead of the dry line will have a tornado potential for the next several hours. The squall line and dry line will merge later this morning as they both move across SE TX which could lead to some heavy rainfall and more of straight line wind threat. Tornado Watch for NE and E TX until 9AM including a few northern SE TX counties. No watches or warnings currently for the Houston-Galveston areas however that could change through out the morning. The good news is the fact this is a progressive system and will be out of here by this evening with much cooler weather and some very beautiful Fall weather for the rest of the week. However for this morning and early this afternoon remain weather aware.

[weatherdude1108]

Temperature here went from 72 and muggy at 5:45am, to 58 and briskly cool at 6:15am. 14 degree temp drop in 30 minutes. I will take it!

[TheProfessor]

Does anyone know the building materials of the Halliburton plant? Apparently it was leveled by the Pampa Tornado.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning:

XUS64 KHGX 171132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE HI RES ARW/NMM
HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AND WILL USE A TEXAS TECH WRF/ARW/NMM
BLEND. PREV TAF PACKAGE DID A GREAT JOB LINING UP THE TIMING OF
TSRA SO NO CHANGES THERE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PCPN STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...STORMS
ALSO CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS ALSO STEADILY MOV-
ING EAST THIS MORNING) AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DRY
LINE A BIT LATER. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THESE
CELLS OUT WEST WITH WPC INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN-
FALL RATES UP TO 2" DUE TO TRAINING/CELL MERGERS. IN THE MEANTIME
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD PROGS NOW TRENDING A BIT MORE COOLER/WETTER
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO PRODUCE SCT PCPN FOR SAT. IN
ITS WAKE...MOS TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ADJ-
USTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS UP AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. 41

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAK THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON BUT SEAS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY SUBSIDE.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE WNW-ESE THRU THE WATERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. ASSOCIATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOCALLY
HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN OFFSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS.

TIDES LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ENTERING LOW TIDE SO TOTAL WATER LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3.0 FEET BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 48 70 49 72 / 100 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 50 73 49 75 / 100 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 57 71 60 73 / 90 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...43

[Ralph's Weather]

At my house the temp was 73 at 7am and 54 at 8am, pretty nice drop for a Pacific front. Up over half an inch of rain here for the day will end up around an inch probably.

[PineyWoods]

Just drove from Tyler to Jacksonville in the storm. Heavy rain and wind all the way, seems to have settled down some. A nice temperature drop though.

[JDawg512]

I got 0.96 in my gauge.

Forecast is looking fairly dry for the next 7 days. Seems like the storms are moving further north than you would think with a strong El Niño in place.

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.96 in my gauge.

Forecast is looking fairly dry for the next 7 days. Seems like the storms are moving further north than you would think with a strong El Niño in place.

It was still raining hard when I left (almost a half inch I think at the time). I'll see the total when I get home. I drove through some heavy downpours and flooded roadways on way to work. But everyone was behaving and being careful.